TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table
1. Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators (SA)*
2. Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators (SA)
3. Personal Income by Components (96$, SAAR)*
4. Personal Income by Components (Current$, SAAR)
5. Employment, Nonagricultural (NSA)*
6. Employment, Durable Goods (NSA)
7. Employment, Nondurable Goods (NSA)
8. Employment, Nonagricultural (SA)
9. Employment, Durable Goods (SA)
10. Employment, Nondurable Goods (SA)
11. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (96$, NSA)
12. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (96$, SA)
13. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (Current$, NSA)
14. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (Current$, SA)
15. Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate (NSA)
16. Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate (SA)
17. Taxable Sales (96$, NSA)
18. Taxable Sales (96$, SA)
19. Taxable Sales (Current$, NSA)
20. Taxable Sales (Current$, SA)
*Key: SA=Seasonally Adjusted; NSA=Not Seasonally Adjusted
SAAR=Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
US GDP (BIL96$) SAAR............ 9040.1 9097.4 9205.7 9218.7 9243.8 9229.9 9193.0 9186.4 9248.8 9363.2 9387.9 8858.9 9191.4 9214.5
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.07 2.56 4.85 0.56 1.10 -0.60 -1.59 -0.29 2.74 5.04 1.06 4.11 3.75 0.25
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 4.29 4.17 4.90 3.73 2.25 1.46 -0.14 -0.35 0.05 1.44 2.12 4.11 3.75 0.25
US GDP (BIL$) SAAR.............. 9516.4 9649.5 9820.7 9874.8 9953.610028.110049.910097.710152.910313.110369.9 9274.3 9824.710082.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 8.86 5.71 7.29 2.22 3.23 3.03 0.87 1.92 2.20 6.46 2.22 5.61 5.93 2.62
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 5.92 6.12 7.08 5.99 4.59 3.92 2.33 2.26 2.00 2.84 3.18 5.61 5.93 2.62
IMPLICIT DEFLATOR,GDP........... 105.3 106.1 106.7 107.1 107.7 108.7 109.3 109.9 109.8 110.1 110.5 104.7 106.9 109.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.69 3.07 2.32 1.66 2.11 3.65 2.49 2.21 -0.51 1.32 1.17 1.44 2.11 2.37
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.56 1.87 2.08 2.18 2.29 2.43 2.47 2.61 1.95 1.37 1.04 1.44 2.11 2.37
US PERS CONS DEFL (1996=100).... 105.6 106.5 107.1 107.7 108.3 109.2 109.6 109.6 109.8 110.1 110.8 104.7 107.4 109.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 2.38 3.45 2.23 2.11 2.21 3.33 1.81 -0.07 0.81 1.10 2.57 1.65 2.54 2.02
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.01 2.56 2.56 2.54 2.50 2.47 2.36 1.81 1.46 0.91 1.09 1.65 2.54 2.02
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL96$) SAAR 134315 135913 137571 138485 139055 139339 139169 140172 138769 141300 141119 133101 137756 139362
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.97 4.85 4.97 2.69 1.66 0.82 -0.49 2.91 -3.94 7.50 -0.51 2.16 3.50 1.17
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.70 3.23 3.62 3.61 3.53 2.52 1.16 1.22 -0.21 1.41 1.40 2.16 3.50 1.17
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL96$) SAAR 7536.7 7709.0 7795.9 7883.2 7922.2 7932.3 7913.3 7942.1 7921.4 7999.3 8049.0 7434.5 7827.6 7927.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 5.53 9.46 4.59 4.55 1.99 0.51 -0.95 1.46 -1.04 3.99 2.51 3.15 5.29 1.27
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.00 4.58 5.44 6.02 5.12 2.90 1.51 0.75 -0.01 0.84 1.71 3.15 5.29 1.27
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR.. 141863 144775 147352 149107 150541 152089 152585 153656 152424 155628 156417 139404 147944 152689
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.40 8.47 7.31 4.85 3.90 4.18 1.31 2.84 -3.17 8.68 2.04 3.84 6.13 3.21
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.74 5.87 6.27 6.24 6.12 5.05 3.55 3.05 1.25 2.33 2.51 3.84 6.13 3.21
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR.. 7960.2 8211.6 8350.2 8487.8 8576.6 8658.1 8676.2 8706.2 8700.9 8810.4 8921.5 7786.5 8406.6 8685.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 8.05 13.24 6.93 6.76 4.25 3.86 0.84 1.39 -0.24 5.13 5.14 4.85 7.96 3.32
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 5.07 7.26 8.13 8.71 7.74 5.44 3.90 2.57 1.45 1.76 2.83 4.85 7.96 3.32
TN NONAGRIC JOBS (THOUS)........ 2706.9 2725.8 2732.5 2733.8 2724.5 2728.4 2709.3 2706.6 2705.8 2718.8 2703.7 2684.4 2729.2 2712.5
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.99 2.81 1.00 0.19 -1.36 0.57 -2.77 -0.39 -0.12 1.93 -2.21 1.78 1.67 -0.61
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.87 2.41 2.13 1.49 0.65 0.10 -0.85 -0.99 -0.69 -0.35 -0.21 1.78 1.67 -0.61
US NONAGRIC JOBS (MIL).......... 130.1 131.0 131.8 131.9 132.2 132.4 132.2 131.9 131.1 130.8 130.7 128.9 131.7 131.9
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 2.78 2.73 2.56 0.18 0.91 0.76 -0.72 -0.75 -2.43 -1.12 -0.12 2.42 2.18 0.16
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.46 2.52 2.58 2.06 1.59 1.10 0.28 0.05 -0.79 -1.26 -1.11 2.42 2.18 0.16
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)........ 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.5 5.1 4.0 3.9 4.5
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)........ 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.6 5.6 5.9 4.2 4.0 4.8
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%).... 8.4 8.7 9.3 9.5 9.5 8.6 7.3 6.6 5.2 4.8 4.8 8.0 9.2 6.9
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)............. 511.9 510.6 510.2 508.0 499.2 491.0 479.1 474.8 470.1 468.0 466.0 510.9 507.0 478.7
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -1.27 -1.04 -0.29 -1.74 -6.75 -6.39 -9.32 -3.60 -3.90 -1.72 -1.73 -0.66 -0.77 -5.57
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.35 0.29 0.21 -1.08 -2.49 -3.83 -6.09 -6.54 -5.83 -4.68 -2.74 -0.66 -0.77 -5.57
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS (CONT.)
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL96$)....... 17501 17779 17325 17324 17102 17067 17070 16685 17217 17045 17015 69069 69531 68039
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.51 6.50 -9.82 -0.03 -5.02 -0.82 0.07 -8.74 13.40 -3.94 -0.72 7.41 0.67 -2.14
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.90 3.81 1.13 0.08 -2.28 -4.00 -1.47 -3.69 0.67 -0.13 -0.33 7.41 0.67 -2.14
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)......... 18485 18938 18557 18653 18515 18629 18716 18290 18912 18774 18859 72339 74663 74546
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.00 10.17 -7.81 2.08 -2.92 2.48 1.88 -8.80 14.31 -2.88 1.83 9.17 3.21 -0.16
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 5.99 6.47 3.72 2.63 0.16 -1.63 0.86 -1.95 2.14 0.78 0.77 9.17 3.21 -0.16
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG (96$).. 28678 28644 28774 28937 28989 28906 28973 29171 28662 28866 28973 28581 28836 28928
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -0.76 -0.48 1.83 2.28 0.72 -1.14 0.93 2.77 -6.80 2.87 1.50 2.00 0.89 0.32
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.35 1.20 0.59 0.71 1.08 0.92 0.69 0.81 -1.13 -0.14 0.00 2.00 0.89 0.32
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG ($).... 30290 30511 30820 31157 31383 31551 31766 31978 31483 31793 32114 29934 30968 31694
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.60 2.96 4.11 4.44 2.94 2.16 2.75 2.69 -6.05 4.00 4.11 3.68 3.46 2.35
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.39 3.79 3.16 3.27 3.61 3.41 3.07 2.64 0.32 0.77 1.10 3.68 3.46 2.35
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 2: SELECTED PER CAPITA U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
US GDP (96$) SAAR............... 33103 33244 33568 33546 33568 33448 33246 33154 33311 33654 33675 32542 33481 33290
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 6.18 1.71 3.96 -0.27 0.26 -1.42 -2.40 -1.09 1.90 4.19 0.25 3.23 2.89 -0.57
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.41 3.30 4.02 2.87 1.40 0.61 -0.96 -1.17 -0.76 0.62 1.29 3.23 2.89 -0.57
US GDP ($) SAAR................. 34847 35261 35811 35933 36145 36340 36344 36443 36567 37068 37197 34067 35787 36424
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.96 4.83 6.38 1.38 2.38 2.18 0.04 1.09 1.37 5.59 1.40 4.71 5.05 1.78
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 5.02 5.23 6.18 5.11 3.72 3.06 1.49 1.42 1.17 2.00 2.35 4.71 5.05 1.78
TN PERSONAL INCOME (96$) SAAR... 23721 23936 24160 24267 24326 24336 24266 24388 24095 24482 24362 23608 24172 24271
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 0.84 3.68 3.80 1.78 0.98 0.15 -1.15 2.03 -4.72 6.59 -1.96 0.93 2.39 0.41
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.50 2.04 2.46 2.52 2.55 1.67 0.44 0.50 -0.95 0.60 0.40 0.93 2.39 0.41
TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR..... 25054 25497 25878 26128 26336 26562 26605 26734 26466 26965 27003 24725 25960 26592
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 3.24 7.26 6.12 3.92 3.22 3.49 0.64 1.96 -3.96 7.76 0.56 2.59 4.99 2.43
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.52 4.65 5.08 5.12 5.12 4.18 2.81 2.32 0.49 1.52 1.50 2.59 4.99 2.43
US PERSONAL INCOME (96$) SAAR... 27598 28170 28427 28686 28768 28745 28618 28664 28530 28752 28872 27309 28513 28639
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.65 8.55 3.71 3.69 1.15 -0.32 -1.77 0.65 -1.85 3.14 1.69 2.28 4.41 0.44
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.13 3.70 4.55 5.13 4.24 2.04 0.67 -0.08 -0.83 0.02 0.89 2.28 4.41 0.44
US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR..... 29149 30007 30449 30886 31144 31376 31376 31421 31338 31667 32002 28602 30621 31378
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.15 12.30 6.02 5.87 3.39 3.00 0.01 0.57 -1.06 4.27 4.30 3.96 7.06 2.47
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 4.19 6.36 7.23 7.81 6.85 4.56 3.05 1.73 0.62 0.93 1.99 3.96 7.06 2.47
TN TAXABLE SALES (96$).......... 3091 3131 3043 3036 2992 2981 2976 2903 2989 2953 2937 12250 12201 11850
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 3.35 5.31 -10.83 -0.91 -5.65 -1.48 -0.59 -9.51 12.48 -4.75 -2.16 6.12 -0.40 -2.88
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.68 2.61 0.00 -0.97 -3.20 -4.80 -2.18 -4.37 -0.08 -0.92 -1.31 6.12 -0.40 -2.88
TN TAXABLE SALES ($)............ 3265 3335 3259 3269 3239 3254 3263 3182 3284 3253 3256 12830 13102 12983
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 5.81 8.95 -8.83 1.17 -3.56 1.80 1.21 -9.58 13.38 -3.70 0.35 7.86 2.12 -0.91
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 4.74 5.24 2.55 1.55 -0.78 -2.45 0.13 -2.64 1.38 -0.02 -0.23 7.86 2.12 -0.91
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 3: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME............ 134315 135913 137571 138485 139055 139339 139169 140172 138769 141300 141119 133101 137756 139362
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 1.97 4.85 4.97 2.69 1.66 0.82 -0.49 2.91 -3.94 7.50 -0.51 2.16 3.50 1.17
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.70 3.23 3.62 3.61 3.53 2.52 1.16 1.22 -0.21 1.41 1.40 2.16 3.50 1.17
WAGES AND SALARIES............. 78390 78867 79394 79886 79746 79649 79292 79766 78418 79411 79273 77487 79473 79281
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 1.21 2.46 2.70 2.50 -0.70 -0.49 -1.78 2.41 -6.59 5.16 -0.69 3.84 2.56 -0.24
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.23 3.63 2.71 2.22 1.73 0.99 -0.13 -0.15 -1.67 -0.30 -0.02 3.84 2.56 -0.24
OTHER LABOR INCOME............. 8634 8585 8599 8702 8696 8705 8705 8785 8705 8879 8669 8591 8645 8725
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -0.38 -2.23 0.63 4.88 -0.27 0.45 -0.03 3.73 -3.57 8.20 -9.12 2.82 0.63 0.92
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 2.18 1.04 0.09 0.69 0.72 1.40 1.24 0.96 0.11 1.99 -0.41 2.82 0.63 0.92
PROPRIETORS INCOME............. 13519 13878 13933 13770 13919 13879 13979 14066 13951 14315 14471 13304 13875 13969
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 3.72 11.05 1.60 -4.61 4.41 -1.15 2.92 2.50 -3.22 10.86 4.41 4.99 4.30 0.68
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.50 6.90 4.63 2.79 2.96 0.01 0.33 2.15 0.23 3.14 3.52 4.99 4.30 0.68
RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS........ 20191 20723 21231 21521 21744 21551 21326 21298 21011 21213 21191 20179 21305 21297
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 3.92 10.95 10.16 5.59 4.20 -3.50 -4.11 -0.52 -5.28 3.89 -0.42 -4.52 5.58 -0.04
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -4.82 1.34 5.75 7.62 7.69 4.00 0.45 -1.04 -3.37 -1.57 -0.64 -4.52 5.58 -0.04
TRANSFER PAYMENTS.............. 20676 21051 21608 21831 22146 22826 23118 23565 23842 24799 24869 20585 21659 23338
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 1.84 7.46 11.00 4.19 5.90 12.87 5.22 7.96 4.78 17.06 1.13 1.71 5.22 7.75
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 2.22 2.44 5.24 6.07 7.11 8.43 6.99 7.95 7.66 8.64 7.57 1.71 5.22 7.75
LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS..... 6111 6126 6121 6144 6125 6222 6219 6275 6175 6321 6328 6071 6129 6223
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -0.30 0.99 -0.31 1.51 -1.21 6.46 -0.20 3.70 -6.22 9.78 0.42 3.87 0.95 1.53
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.36 2.25 0.86 0.47 0.24 1.57 1.60 2.14 0.82 1.60 1.76 3.87 0.95 1.53
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT........... -985 -1066 -1073 -1080 -1071 -1050 -1033 -1034 -983 -996 -1026 -972 -1072 -1025
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -4.18 37.12 2.73 2.80 -3.50 -7.49 -6.16 0.07 -18.10 5.29 12.59 9.05 10.27 -4.40
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 9.04 15.28 8.88 8.53 8.72 -1.46 -3.67 -4.31 -8.16 -5.14 -0.72 9.05 10.27 -4.40
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)... 23721 23936 24160 24267 24326 24336 24266 24388 24095 24482 24362 23608 24172 24271
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 0.84 3.68 3.80 1.78 0.98 0.15 -1.15 2.03 -4.72 6.59 -1.96 0.93 2.39 0.41
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 0.50 2.04 2.46 2.52 2.55 1.67 0.44 0.50 -0.95 0.60 0.40 0.93 2.39 0.41
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 4: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME............ 141863 144775 147352 149107 150541 152089 152585 153656 152424 155628 156417 139404 147944 152689
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 4.40 8.47 7.31 4.85 3.90 4.18 1.31 2.84 -3.17 8.68 2.04 3.84 6.13 3.21
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.74 5.87 6.27 6.24 6.12 5.05 3.55 3.05 1.25 2.33 2.51 3.84 6.13 3.21
WAGES AND SALARIES............. 82795 84009 85039 86013 86333 86937 86936 87440 86134 87463 87867 81157 85349 86862
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 3.63 6.00 5.00 4.66 1.50 2.83 0.00 2.34 -5.84 6.32 1.86 5.55 5.16 1.77
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 5.30 6.29 5.33 4.82 4.27 3.49 2.23 1.66 -0.23 0.61 1.07 5.55 5.16 1.77
OTHER LABOR INCOME............. 9119 9145 9210 9369 9414 9502 9544 9630 9562 9779 9609 8998 9285 9560
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 2.00 1.15 2.87 7.09 1.94 3.79 1.78 3.65 -2.79 9.39 -6.79 4.52 3.19 2.96
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 4.23 3.63 2.65 3.25 3.24 3.90 3.63 2.79 1.57 2.92 0.68 4.52 3.19 2.96
PROPRIETORS INCOME............. 14279 14783 14924 14826 15069 15149 15327 15419 15324 15767 16039 13934 14901 15305
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 6.20 14.88 3.87 -2.60 6.72 2.14 4.78 2.42 -2.44 12.07 7.09 6.72 6.94 2.71
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 5.58 9.64 7.31 5.40 5.53 2.48 2.70 4.00 1.69 4.08 4.65 6.72 6.94 2.71
RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS........ 21326 22074 22740 23172 23540 23523 23382 23347 23079 23364 23488 21133 22882 23333
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 6.40 14.79 12.63 7.82 6.51 -0.29 -2.38 -0.60 -4.51 5.03 2.13 -2.95 8.28 1.97
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -2.90 3.93 8.45 10.35 10.38 6.56 2.82 0.76 -1.96 -0.68 0.45 -2.95 8.28 1.97
TRANSFER PAYMENTS.............. 21838 22424 23144 23505 23975 24915 25347 25832 26188 27314 27565 21559 23262 25571
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 4.27 11.17 13.48 6.39 8.24 16.63 7.12 7.88 5.63 18.34 3.73 3.39 7.90 9.92
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 4.27 5.06 7.93 8.76 9.79 11.11 9.52 9.90 9.23 9.63 8.75 3.39 7.90 9.92
LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS..... 6454 6525 6556 6615 6631 6791 6818 6879 6783 6962 7014 6359 6582 6818
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 2.07 4.47 1.91 3.65 0.97 10.01 1.60 3.63 -5.47 10.98 3.00 5.58 3.51 3.59
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 5.44 4.87 3.44 3.02 2.74 4.08 4.00 3.99 2.29 2.52 2.87 5.58 3.51 3.59
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT........... -1040 -1135 -1149 -1163 -1159 -1146 -1133 -1133 -1080 -1097 -1137 -1019 -1152 -1123
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -1.90 41.86 5.03 4.96 -1.37 -4.41 -4.46 0.00 -17.44 6.45 15.48 10.86 13.06 -2.48
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 11.23 18.23 11.66 11.29 11.44 0.97 -1.39 -2.58 -6.82 -4.28 0.37 10.86 13.06 -2.48
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)... 25054 25497 25878 26128 26336 26562 26605 26734 26466 26965 27003 24725 25960 26592
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 3.24 7.26 6.12 3.92 3.22 3.49 0.64 1.96 -3.96 7.76 0.56 2.59 4.99 2.43
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 2.52 4.65 5.08 5.12 5.12 4.18 2.81 2.32 0.49 1.52 1.50 2.59 4.99 2.43
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 5: TENNESSEE NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR
THOUSANDS OF JOBS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 2731.7 2692.2 2737.1 2735.0 2751.3 2694.5 2713.4 2707.8 2730.2 2687.3 2708.9 2685.4 2728.9 2711.5
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.79 2.43 2.01 1.36 0.72 0.09 -0.86 -1.00 -0.76 -0.27 -0.17 1.78 1.62 -0.64
MINING........................ 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.1 4.0
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.08 -0.79 -3.85 -4.55 -5.56 -6.40 -1.60 -2.38 -1.68 -7.69 -9.76 -1.15 -3.70 -3.03
CONSTRUCTION.................. 125.4 122.1 125.7 128.1 124.0 117.9 122.2 124.0 120.9 115.6 120.0 123.5 125.0 121.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.79 5.81 0.40 -0.03 -1.14 -3.44 -2.76 -3.23 -2.50 -1.89 -1.80 2.14 1.16 -2.98
MANUFACTURING................. 512.6 509.0 511.0 506.9 500.2 488.8 479.8 474.5 470.8 467.1 466.4 511.1 506.8 478.5
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.18 0.20 0.05 -1.21 -2.41 -3.97 -6.10 -6.39 -5.89 -4.45 -2.80 -0.71 -0.84 -5.58
DURABLE GOODS............... 303.1 302.9 304.2 300.2 296.1 288.6 283.1 277.9 275.8 274.3 273.6 300.2 300.8 281.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.71 2.12 1.65 -0.49 -2.33 -4.73 -6.95 -7.43 -6.86 -4.95 -3.36 2.54 0.22 -6.49
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 209.5 206.1 206.7 206.7 204.2 200.2 196.7 196.6 195.0 192.8 192.8 210.9 205.9 197.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.28 -2.49 -2.21 -2.24 -2.53 -2.85 -4.85 -4.87 -4.49 -3.71 -2.00 -4.98 -2.37 -4.27
TRADE......................... 649.0 627.8 641.4 644.9 653.2 630.2 636.2 637.8 649.9 627.9 633.5 630.8 641.8 638.5
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.07 2.14 2.45 1.78 0.65 0.39 -0.82 -1.10 -0.50 -0.37 -0.41 1.67 1.74 -0.51
SERVICES...................... 735.2 722.4 744.7 751.9 752.1 738.8 755.5 762.7 762.4 759.4 773.3 721.9 742.8 754.9
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.14 3.81 3.08 2.43 2.30 2.28 1.45 1.44 1.37 2.78 2.36 2.63 2.89 1.63
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 130.8 130.4 130.7 131.5 131.1 130.6 132.2 133.3 133.1 132.5 132.4 131.2 130.9 132.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.33 0.51 -0.71 -0.70 0.23 0.15 1.12 1.39 1.53 1.45 0.13 3.49 -0.17 1.05
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 176.1 174.0 178.1 180.1 181.7 179.4 179.5 180.2 180.2 173.9 174.0 172.4 178.5 179.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.91 3.65 3.75 3.49 3.18 3.12 0.80 0.06 -0.83 -3.10 -3.08 6.26 3.51 0.77
GOVERNMENT.................... 398.3 402.4 401.3 387.5 404.9 404.8 403.9 391.2 409.0 407.3 405.6 390.2 399.0 402.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.61 2.47 2.62 2.34 1.66 0.60 0.66 0.96 1.01 0.63 0.41 1.20 2.27 0.81
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 51.0 52.1 57.8 53.9 50.7 51.6 51.9 51.1 49.9 50.5 50.7 51.2 53.6 51.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.99 1.56 11.29 6.38 -0.46 -1.02 -10.20 -5.13 -1.58 -2.07 -2.37 0.77 4.72 -4.66
STATE AND LOCAL............. 347.3 350.3 343.4 333.6 354.2 353.2 352.0 340.1 359.1 356.8 354.9 338.9 345.4 351.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.01 2.61 1.29 1.72 1.97 0.84 2.49 1.95 1.38 1.02 0.82 1.26 1.90 1.66
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 6: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF JOBS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS............. 303.1 302.9 304.2 300.2 296.1 288.6 283.1 277.9 275.8 274.3 273.6 300.2 300.8 281.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.71 2.12 1.65 -0.49 -2.33 -4.73 -6.95 -7.43 -6.86 -4.95 -3.36 2.54 0.22 -6.49
LUMBER AND WOOD............... 23.7 23.8 24.2 24.1 23.4 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.2 23.7 23.9 22.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.14 0.70 3.71 0.00 -1.27 -6.99 -8.53 -7.89 -5.42 -0.30 0.00 2.23 0.77 -7.23
FURNITURE AND FIXTURES........ 27.6 27.3 27.5 26.7 26.4 25.4 24.0 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.8 27.4 27.0 23.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.73 1.23 0.12 -3.37 -4.58 -7.20 -12.73 -15.34 -14.29 -10.78 -5.14 1.42 -1.67 -12.35
STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.......... 16.9 16.9 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.7 16.9 16.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.19 4.75 2.40 -0.20 -0.99 -2.17 -2.73 -1.18 -1.00 -1.61 -2.40 2.77 1.45 -1.77
PRIMARY METALS................ 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.2 16.5 16.1 15.9 15.3 14.5 18.0 17.8 16.4
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.94 -0.37 -0.55 -1.66 -1.86 -4.10 -7.99 -9.19 -10.02 -11.07 -11.92 1.50 -1.11 -7.81
FABRICATED METALS............. 48.0 47.6 47.9 47.6 47.0 46.0 45.1 44.7 44.0 43.9 43.9 47.1 47.5 44.9
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.38 2.29 2.86 0.78 -2.02 -3.50 -5.98 -6.16 -6.31 -4.50 -2.51 3.75 0.96 -5.49
NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY....... 50.8 51.7 51.8 50.9 51.1 50.8 50.2 48.3 48.0 48.3 47.9 49.5 51.3 49.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.69 5.94 5.36 3.18 0.52 -1.74 -2.96 -4.98 -6.01 -4.86 -4.64 4.96 3.72 -3.91
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.......... 41.5 40.6 41.1 40.6 39.0 37.5 36.3 35.6 35.4 35.0 34.9 41.4 40.3 36.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.40 -0.98 -0.73 -2.80 -6.02 -7.55 -11.53 -12.16 -9.22 -6.75 -3.85 2.39 -2.64 -10.13
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT...... 55.5 55.5 55.2 54.1 53.3 51.9 51.1 50.9 50.4 49.9 50.2 54.8 54.5 51.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.59 3.03 0.85 -1.58 -3.97 -6.60 -7.49 -5.92 -5.32 -3.86 -1.76 2.43 -0.44 -6.34
INSTRUMENTS................... 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 10.8 10.9 11.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.45 0.00 0.00 0.62 3.76 2.46 3.09 2.45 1.81 1.50 1.50 -3.65 1.08 2.45
MISCELLANEOUS................. 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.1 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.7 9.7 10.8 10.7 9.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.94 -0.93 -3.60 -1.53 0.00 -5.31 -6.85 -10.56 -10.09 -4.29 -3.01 -0.84 -1.54 -8.20
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 7: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF JOBS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.......... 209.5 206.1 206.7 206.7 204.2 200.2 196.7 196.6 195.0 192.8 192.8 210.9 205.9 197.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.28 -2.49 -2.21 -2.24 -2.53 -2.85 -4.85 -4.87 -4.49 -3.71 -2.00 -4.98 -2.37 -4.27
FOOD.......................... 38.9 38.9 39.5 40.2 40.3 40.0 40.5 41.3 41.4 41.0 41.0 38.4 39.7 40.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.55 3.09 3.86 3.52 3.51 2.83 2.70 2.90 2.65 2.59 1.15 2.70 3.50 2.77
TOBACCO....................... 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -8.82 -5.26 6.45 0.00 0.00 -2.78 -9.09 -3.33 0.00 -5.71 10.00 -7.14 0.00 -3.85
TEXTILES...................... 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.6 15.1 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.2 12.9 12.7 16.2 15.6 13.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.75 -4.67 -4.05 -2.50 -4.42 -8.72 -12.03 -12.18 -13.00 -10.02 -8.39 -7.83 -3.91 -11.47
APPAREL....................... 24.5 23.0 22.3 21.7 21.0 20.4 19.1 18.3 17.9 17.3 17.1 26.1 22.0 18.9
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -17.12 -17.29 -16.08 -14.77 -14.40 -11.32 -14.22 -15.64 -14.76 -14.89 -10.47 -21.26 -15.69 -13.94
PAPER......................... 22.0 21.4 21.7 22.6 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.6 22.1 21.9 22.0
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.23 -1.54 -2.11 0.15 -0.91 2.03 0.92 -1.77 1.99 1.68 3.35 0.99 -1.09 0.76
PRINTING AND PUBLISHING....... 38.6 38.0 38.0 37.5 37.1 36.7 36.0 36.1 35.7 34.8 34.6 38.6 37.7 36.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.36 -0.61 -1.30 -3.76 -4.06 -3.42 -5.26 -3.73 -3.78 -5.26 -3.80 -1.93 -2.44 -4.05
CHEMICALS..................... 29.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 29.7 28.5 27.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.49 -4.89 -4.13 -3.93 -2.96 -0.82 -4.42 -4.33 -3.76 -3.66 -1.22 -8.97 -3.99 -3.33
PETROLEUM REFINING............ 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.00 13.79 18.18 12.12 16.13 0.00 0.00 5.41 5.56 9.09 -7.69 0.00 15.08 2.76
RUBBER AND PLASTICS........... 35.0 35.3 35.4 35.3 35.5 34.1 33.4 33.3 33.1 33.2 33.4 34.6 35.4 33.5
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.55 3.22 2.22 1.83 1.43 -3.31 -5.56 -5.66 -6.85 -2.54 0.10 0.31 2.17 -5.35
LEATHER....................... 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.1 3.0 2.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.06 0.00 -1.06 -3.19 -14.74 -22.34 -29.03 -30.77 -28.40 -23.29 -13.64 -6.22 -4.77 -27.58
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 8: TENNESSEE NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR
THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 2706.9 2725.8 2732.5 2733.8 2724.5 2728.4 2709.3 2706.6 2705.8 2718.8 2703.7 2684.4 2729.2 2712.5
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.99 2.81 1.00 0.19 -1.36 0.57 -2.77 -0.39 -0.12 1.93 -2.21 1.78 1.67 -0.61
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.87 2.41 2.13 1.49 0.65 0.10 -0.85 -0.99 -0.69 -0.35 -0.21 1.78 1.67 -0.61
MINING........................ 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.1 4.0
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -6.06 3.19 -11.93 -3.19 -12.39 0.00 10.47 -3.24 -12.58 -21.87 0.00 -1.15 -3.89 -3.04
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.05 -0.78 -3.88 -4.65 -6.30 -7.03 -1.61 -1.63 -1.68 -7.56 -9.84 -1.15 -3.89 -3.04
CONSTRUCTION.................. 125.3 128.0 124.6 124.1 123.5 123.6 121.2 120.0 120.0 122.4 118.7 123.7 125.0 121.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.59 8.90 -10.12 -1.49 -2.13 0.54 -7.54 -3.90 0.00 8.24 -11.55 2.27 1.07 -3.05
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.40 5.38 0.48 -0.03 -1.44 -3.39 -2.70 -3.30 -2.78 -0.97 -2.06 2.27 1.07 -3.05
MANUFACTURING................. 511.9 510.6 510.2 508.0 499.2 491.0 479.1 474.8 470.1 468.0 466.0 510.9 507.0 478.7
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.27 -1.04 -0.29 -1.74 -6.75 -6.39 -9.32 -3.60 -3.90 -1.72 -1.73 -0.66 -0.77 -5.57
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.35 0.29 0.21 -1.08 -2.49 -3.83 -6.09 -6.54 -5.83 -4.68 -2.74 -0.66 -0.77 -5.57
DURABLE GOODS............... 302.9 303.3 303.2 301.6 295.5 289.4 282.1 278.5 275.4 274.5 273.0 300.1 300.9 281.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.49 0.53 -0.22 -2.05 -7.81 -8.05 -9.76 -5.01 -4.29 -1.35 -2.12 2.58 0.28 -6.50
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.88 2.29 1.67 -0.32 -2.44 -4.59 -6.96 -7.67 -6.80 -5.15 -3.20 2.58 0.28 -6.50
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 209.0 207.2 207.0 206.4 203.6 201.6 197.1 196.3 194.6 193.5 193.0 210.9 206.1 197.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -3.74 -3.28 -0.39 -1.28 -5.19 -3.93 -8.70 -1.55 -3.35 -2.24 -1.17 -4.94 -2.27 -4.21
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.09 -2.51 -1.85 -2.18 -2.55 -2.72 -4.81 -4.88 -4.42 -4.00 -2.08 -4.94 -2.27 -4.21
TRADE......................... 636.8 639.2 642.9 643.9 641.2 641.9 637.8 635.3 637.7 639.7 635.3 630.5 641.8 638.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.20 1.52 2.34 0.62 -1.67 0.44 -2.53 -1.58 1.52 1.28 -2.76 1.66 1.79 -0.57
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.11 2.07 2.51 1.92 0.69 0.42 -0.79 -1.34 -0.55 -0.34 -0.40 1.66 1.79 -0.57
SERVICES...................... 732.4 737.4 740.9 744.2 748.2 754.1 751.8 756.4 759.3 772.5 769.4 721.6 742.7 755.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.86 2.80 1.88 1.81 2.17 3.17 -1.20 2.45 1.56 7.14 -1.60 2.63 2.92 1.71
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.26 3.77 3.19 2.58 2.16 2.26 1.48 1.63 1.48 2.44 2.34 2.63 2.92 1.71
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 130.9 131.3 130.6 130.8 131.1 131.5 132.1 132.7 133.0 133.4 132.2 131.2 130.9 132.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.91 1.23 -2.11 0.41 0.92 1.33 1.84 1.73 1.11 1.21 -3.74 3.54 -0.16 1.05
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.54 0.46 -0.58 -0.61 0.10 0.13 1.12 1.45 1.50 1.47 0.05 3.54 -0.16 1.05
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 174.6 176.2 178.5 179.2 179.8 181.4 179.9 179.6 179.8 175.4 173.6 172.6 178.4 180.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.11 3.72 5.32 1.50 1.27 3.68 -3.27 -0.67 0.52 -9.43 -4.19 6.30 3.37 0.98
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.07 3.61 3.56 3.40 2.94 2.93 0.77 0.22 0.04 -3.29 -3.52 6.30 3.37 0.98
GOVERNMENT.................... 390.8 398.7 400.6 399.5 397.6 400.9 403.2 403.9 402.0 403.6 404.9 389.6 399.1 402.5
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.38 8.41 1.92 -1.09 -1.89 3.29 2.35 0.66 -1.87 1.60 1.29 1.09 2.45 0.84
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.31 2.48 2.97 2.59 1.76 0.54 0.64 1.08 1.09 0.67 0.41 1.09 2.45 0.84
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 51.2 52.0 57.3 54.2 50.9 51.4 51.4 51.2 50.4 50.5 50.0 51.2 53.6 51.1
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.58 6.68 47.09 -19.56 -22.21 3.72 -0.26 -1.55 -5.61 0.26 -3.65 0.72 4.70 -4.69
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.17 1.36 11.49 6.41 -0.46 -1.15 -10.30 -5.65 -0.98 -1.82 -2.66 0.72 4.70 -4.69
STATE AND LOCAL............. 339.6 346.7 343.4 345.3 346.7 349.5 351.8 352.7 351.5 353.1 354.9 338.4 345.5 351.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.35 8.67 -3.83 2.27 1.63 3.23 2.74 0.99 -1.32 1.79 2.02 1.15 2.11 1.70
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.69 2.64 1.68 2.02 2.09 0.79 2.47 2.14 1.39 1.04 0.86 1.15 2.11 1.70
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 9: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS............. 302.9 303.3 303.2 301.6 295.5 289.4 282.1 278.5 275.4 274.5 273.0 300.1 300.9 281.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 0.49 0.53 -0.22 -2.05 -7.81 -8.05 -9.76 -5.01 -4.29 -1.35 -2.12 2.58 0.28 -6.50
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.88 2.29 1.67 -0.32 -2.44 -4.59 -6.96 -7.67 -6.80 -5.15 -3.20 2.58 0.28 -6.50
LUMBER AND WOOD............... 23.7 24.1 24.2 23.9 23.4 22.5 22.2 22.0 22.0 22.3 22.2 23.7 23.9 22.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -1.12 6.92 1.67 -4.87 -8.63 -14.54 -5.24 -2.38 0.00 5.56 -2.37 2.30 0.88 -7.19
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.57 0.70 3.71 0.56 -1.41 -6.78 -8.40 -7.81 -5.71 -0.59 0.15 2.30 0.88 -7.19
FURNITURE AND FIXTURES........ 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.2 25.4 23.8 22.9 22.5 22.7 22.6 27.4 27.0 23.7
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -5.62 -1.45 -1.93 -1.94 -13.08 -10.75 -22.89 -14.77 -6.25 2.39 -1.75 1.39 -1.67 -12.21
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.73 1.23 -0.37 -2.75 -4.73 -7.06 -12.48 -15.50 -13.89 -10.88 -5.31 1.39 -1.67 -12.21
STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.......... 16.9 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.6 16.9 16.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.40 3.19 -1.55 -4.62 0.80 -3.90 -3.16 1.62 -0.80 -4.74 -4.80 2.72 1.65 -1.97
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.74 4.92 2.62 -0.20 -0.59 -2.34 -2.75 -1.19 -1.58 -1.80 -2.22 2.72 1.65 -1.97
PRIMARY METALS................ 17.9 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.5 16.2 15.8 15.2 14.5 18.0 17.8 16.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -4.34 -1.48 2.26 -2.21 -5.84 -9.49 -13.96 -7.82 -9.52 -13.59 -17.15 1.55 -0.88 -7.85
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.94 -0.19 0.00 -1.47 -1.86 -3.92 -7.98 -9.33 -10.23 -11.26 -12.10 1.55 -0.88 -7.85
FABRICATED METALS............. 47.6 47.7 48.0 47.9 46.7 46.1 45.1 44.7 43.9 43.9 44.0 47.0 47.6 45.0
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.56 1.13 1.97 -0.83 -9.66 -4.49 -8.66 -3.79 -6.69 0.30 0.61 3.68 1.17 -5.48
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.40 2.73 2.79 1.20 -1.96 -3.35 -5.98 -6.69 -5.93 -4.77 -2.44 3.68 1.17 -5.48
NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY....... 51.1 51.0 51.4 51.7 50.9 50.2 49.9 49.2 48.1 47.8 47.7 49.6 51.2 49.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 5.12 -0.52 2.91 2.36 -5.56 -5.64 -2.11 -5.75 -8.39 -2.74 -0.83 4.89 3.40 -3.66
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.44 6.18 5.48 2.45 -0.26 -1.57 -2.79 -4.77 -5.50 -4.78 -4.47 4.89 3.40 -3.66
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.......... 41.2 41.0 41.2 40.3 38.8 37.9 36.4 35.5 35.3 35.2 34.8 41.4 40.3 36.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -3.17 -1.93 1.97 -8.46 -13.78 -9.27 -14.92 -9.53 -1.86 -1.87 -4.11 2.43 -2.60 -10.04
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.57 -0.81 -0.88 -2.97 -5.74 -7.56 -11.65 -11.91 -9.01 -7.21 -4.40 2.43 -2.60 -10.04
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT...... 55.7 55.6 54.9 54.4 53.4 52.2 50.6 50.6 50.3 50.0 50.2 54.8 54.6 50.9
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 4.67 -0.61 -5.13 -3.18 -7.12 -9.25 -11.11 0.06 -2.34 -2.60 1.29 2.67 -0.30 -6.66
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.31 3.19 0.90 -1.13 -4.04 -6.20 -7.71 -6.95 -5.78 -4.10 -0.91 2.67 -0.30 -6.66
INSTRUMENTS................... 10.7 10.9 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.3 10.8 10.9 11.1
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.37 5.78 -5.03 6.67 7.40 1.75 -4.24 2.18 6.13 1.10 0.23 -3.44 1.23 2.10
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.91 0.15 0.09 1.14 3.58 2.57 2.79 1.69 1.39 1.22 2.39 -3.44 1.23 2.10
MISCELLANEOUS................. 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.7 9.6 10.8 10.7 9.8
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.32 3.82 -3.67 5.11 -6.05 -16.48 -8.90 -10.35 -4.09 7.18 -4.06 -0.76 -1.31 -8.27
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.62 -0.92 -3.04 -0.92 -0.31 -5.59 -6.90 -10.53 -10.06 -4.28 -3.03 -0.76 -1.31 -8.27
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 10: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.......... 209.0 207.2 207.0 206.4 203.6 201.6 197.1 196.3 194.6 193.5 193.0 210.9 206.1 197.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -3.74 -3.28 -0.39 -1.28 -5.19 -3.93 -8.70 -1.55 -3.35 -2.24 -1.17 -4.94 -2.27 -4.21
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.09 -2.51 -1.85 -2.18 -2.55 -2.72 -4.81 -4.88 -4.42 -4.00 -2.08 -4.94 -2.27 -4.21
FOOD.......................... 38.7 39.2 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.4 40.6 41.2 41.3 41.3 41.0 38.3 39.7 40.9
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.16 4.91 3.44 3.07 3.39 2.01 2.67 6.04 0.65 -0.32 -2.88 2.73 3.54 3.02
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.56 3.07 3.76 3.64 3.70 2.98 2.78 3.51 2.82 2.23 0.82 2.73 3.54 3.02
TOBACCO....................... 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -22.13 13.54 43.11 -20.97 0.00 -31.70 14.01 0.00 0.00 13.54 27.44 -5.71 0.76 -7.52
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -6.06 -8.57 6.06 0.00 6.45 -6.25 -11.43 -6.06 -6.06 6.67 9.68 -5.71 0.76 -7.52
TEXTILES...................... 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.3 13.8 13.7 13.2 12.9 12.7 16.2 15.5 13.8
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -3.30 -1.67 -1.68 -2.52 -12.22 -18.81 -13.24 -3.80 -14.69 -6.90 -7.02 -8.15 -3.82 -11.47
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -6.68 -4.44 -3.88 -2.30 -4.63 -9.09 -11.89 -12.18 -12.80 -9.77 -8.19 -8.15 -3.82 -11.47
APPAREL....................... 24.6 23.1 22.3 21.7 20.9 20.5 19.1 18.4 17.8 17.4 17.0 26.1 22.0 18.9
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -13.86 -21.83 -13.67 -9.80 -13.40 -8.62 -24.15 -14.50 -11.78 -7.99 -9.58 -21.13 -15.68 -13.94
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -16.82 -17.11 -15.76 -14.90 -14.79 -11.40 -14.22 -15.36 -14.97 -14.82 -10.99 -21.13 -15.68 -13.94
PAPER......................... 22.0 21.7 21.9 22.0 21.9 22.1 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.8 22.1 21.9 22.1
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 0.61 -5.34 2.48 3.08 -1.80 3.70 -1.20 -1.80 4.94 3.65 6.70 0.95 -0.98 0.95
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.69 -2.10 -1.50 0.15 -0.45 1.84 0.91 -0.30 1.37 1.36 3.32 0.95 -0.98 0.95
PRINTING AND PUBLISHING....... 38.5 38.2 38.2 37.4 36.9 36.9 36.1 36.1 35.6 34.8 34.8 38.6 37.7 36.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.72 -3.75 0.00 -7.80 -4.90 -0.72 -7.72 -0.74 -5.43 -8.35 0.00 -1.95 -2.35 -4.00
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.12 -0.61 -1.04 -3.61 -4.15 -3.41 -5.33 -3.57 -3.70 -5.61 -3.69 -1.95 -2.35 -4.00
CHEMICALS..................... 29.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.4 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 29.7 28.5 27.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.41 -9.14 1.16 1.64 -5.33 0.82 -12.91 -2.60 1.11 -2.31 -1.54 -8.84 -3.80 -3.33
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.05 -4.90 -3.42 -3.82 -3.02 -0.47 -4.13 -5.14 -3.57 -4.33 -1.35 -8.84 -3.80 -3.33
PETROLEUM REFINING............ 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -11.58 60.18 11.58 -10.38 0.00 -10.66 11.93 37.74 0.00 -18.99 -10.38 0.78 11.54 2.76
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.00 12.50 12.12 9.09 12.50 -2.78 -2.70 8.33 8.33 5.71 0.00 0.78 11.54 2.76
RUBBER AND PLASTICS........... 34.8 35.3 35.4 35.7 35.3 34.4 33.5 33.3 33.0 33.3 33.4 34.6 35.4 33.5
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.90 5.88 0.47 4.47 -5.30 -9.42 -10.54 -1.69 -4.26 4.51 1.34 0.46 2.37 -5.33
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.86 3.34 2.98 1.92 1.28 -2.59 -5.38 -6.80 -6.55 -3.14 -0.08 0.46 2.37 -5.33
LEATHER....................... 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.1 3.0 2.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 0.81 3.14 -2.96 -12.71 -39.64 -28.44 -34.97 -22.39 -24.19 -7.04 2.14 -6.10 -4.57 -27.76
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.48 -0.13 -0.31 -3.12 -14.78 -22.22 -29.63 -31.67 -27.66 -22.78 -13.55 -6.10 -4.57 -27.76
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 11: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
1996 DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 28418 29001 28727 28924 28707 29269 28929 29159 28406 29204 28918 28572 28840 28941
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.43 1.18 0.71 0.84 1.02 0.93 0.70 0.81 -1.05 -0.22 -0.04 2.00 0.94 0.35
MINING........................ 41929 39429 43917 40246 40286 42285 41155 39160 44587 45901 44096 42477 40970 41797
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -9.99 -11.34 9.21 -7.03 -3.92 7.24 -6.29 -2.70 10.68 8.55 7.15 -6.50 -3.55 2.02
CONSTRUCTION.................. 32480 34393 32814 31582 32687 34481 32168 31135 31379 33661 31564 32370 32869 32291
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.45 2.28 2.38 0.83 0.64 0.25 -1.97 -1.42 -4.00 -2.38 -1.88 3.70 1.54 -1.76
MANUFACTURING................. 33721 33143 33629 33673 33816 33681 33373 33235 32298 32747 33196 33280 33565 33147
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.05 1.36 1.79 0.04 0.28 1.62 -0.76 -1.30 -4.49 -2.77 -0.53 2.96 0.86 -1.25
DURABLE GOODS............... 34241 33435 33987 34045 34385 33482 33355 33149 32218 32620 33128 33891 33963 33051
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.00 0.29 0.95 -0.80 0.42 0.14 -1.86 -2.63 -6.30 -2.57 -0.68 2.80 0.21 -2.69
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 32969 32714 33103 33134 32991 33969 33400 33357 32411 32927 33293 32411 32985 33284
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.99 2.87 2.97 1.25 0.07 3.83 0.90 0.67 -1.76 -3.07 -0.32 2.96 1.77 0.91
TRADE......................... 21731 22601 22054 22272 21845 22372 21918 21837 21335 22356 21820 22252 22193 21866
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.33 0.39 -2.45 0.53 0.53 -1.01 -0.61 -1.96 -2.33 -0.07 -0.45 3.21 -0.26 -1.48
SERVICES...................... 26997 28062 27461 27098 27325 28710 27837 28401 27939 28718 28065 27121 27487 28222
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.21 1.58 1.84 0.75 1.21 2.31 1.37 4.81 2.25 0.03 0.82 0.97 1.35 2.67
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 39729 39708 40156 42586 41700 40747 43258 42129 41810 42261 42672 38745 41038 41986
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.23 4.89 3.54 10.29 4.96 2.62 7.72 -1.07 0.26 3.72 -1.35 -0.25 5.92 2.31
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 35338 36451 36019 36126 36199 35772 35643 35484 34985 35536 36583 36046 36199 35471
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.19 0.92 0.56 -2.12 2.44 -1.86 -1.04 -1.78 -3.35 -0.66 2.64 2.00 0.42 -2.01
GOVERNMENT.................... 26916 26993 27101 28345 27127 27469 27954 29569 27738 28237 28011 27262 27391 28182
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.37 -0.25 0.14 1.20 0.79 1.77 3.15 4.32 2.25 2.79 0.20 1.28 0.47 2.89
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 42448 42435 40116 43802 45590 46513 46611 46867 47058 48669 45500 42447 42986 46762
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.48 -0.97 -4.55 3.15 7.40 9.61 16.19 7.00 3.22 4.63 -2.38 0.38 1.27 8.79
STATE AND LOCAL............. 24637 24696 24910 25847 24482 24689 25201 26968 25051 25345 25512 24968 24984 25477
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.63 0.03 0.56 0.28 -0.63 -0.03 1.17 4.34 2.32 2.66 1.23 1.56 0.06 1.98
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 12: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 28678 28644 28774 28937 28989 28906 28973 29171 28662 28866 28973 28581 28836 28928
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -0.76 -0.48 1.83 2.28 0.72 -1.14 0.93 2.77 -6.80 2.87 1.50 2.00 0.89 0.32
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.35 1.20 0.59 0.71 1.08 0.92 0.69 0.81 -1.13 -0.14 0.00 2.00 0.89 0.32
MINING........................ 41599 38505 44272 41228 40286 41574 41492 39807 44587 45067 44497 42465 41073 41865
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -22.22 -26.59 74.75 -24.79 -8.83 13.42 -0.79 -15.28 57.40 4.37 -4.96 -6.44 -3.28 1.93
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -10.01 -11.36 9.24 -6.93 -3.16 7.97 -6.28 -3.45 10.68 8.40 7.24 -6.44 -3.28 1.93
CONSTRUCTION.................. 32523 32808 33104 32592 32828 32872 32433 32155 31605 31791 31910 32288 32833 32267
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.51 3.55 3.66 -6.05 2.94 0.54 -5.24 -3.38 -6.67 2.37 1.50 3.56 1.69 -1.72
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.84 2.70 2.29 0.83 0.94 0.20 -2.03 -1.34 -3.73 -3.29 -1.61 3.56 1.69 -1.72
MANUFACTURING................. 33767 33044 33679 33600 33888 33533 33420 33216 32346 32681 33222 33292 33553 33129
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.64 -8.30 7.92 -0.94 3.47 -4.13 -1.34 -2.41 -10.07 4.21 6.78 2.91 0.78 -1.26
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.87 1.27 1.63 -0.09 0.36 1.48 -0.77 -1.14 -4.55 -2.54 -0.59 2.91 0.78 -1.26
DURABLE GOODS............... 34264 33391 34106 33883 34447 33389 33477 33077 32257 32596 33196 33904 33957 33050
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.61 -9.81 8.85 -2.59 6.82 -11.72 1.05 -4.69 -9.55 4.27 7.57 2.76 0.15 -2.67
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.83 0.12 0.93 -0.96 0.53 -0.01 -1.84 -2.38 -6.36 -2.37 -0.84 2.76 0.15 -2.67
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 33048 32535 33055 33187 33077 33738 33337 33413 32472 32802 33259 32421 32964 33240
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.10 -6.06 6.54 1.61 -1.32 8.24 -4.67 0.91 -10.80 4.13 5.69 2.90 1.67 0.84
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.79 2.89 2.59 1.19 0.09 3.70 0.86 0.68 -1.83 -2.78 -0.24 2.90 1.67 0.84
TRADE......................... 22145 22195 22003 22307 22252 21965 21861 21924 21743 21943 21761 22257 22189 21873
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.34 0.92 -3.43 5.65 -0.99 -5.06 -1.87 1.15 -3.25 3.72 -3.28 3.20 -0.30 -1.42
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.28 0.46 -2.51 0.39 0.48 -1.04 -0.64 -1.72 -2.28 -0.10 -0.46 3.20 -0.30 -1.42
SERVICES...................... 27103 27489 27603 27380 27469 28130 27973 28640 28053 28230 28206 27126 27485 28199
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.66 5.82 1.67 -3.19 1.31 9.98 -2.22 9.89 -7.94 2.54 -0.34 0.96 1.32 2.60
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.09 1.62 1.72 0.60 1.35 2.33 1.34 4.60 2.13 0.35 0.84 0.96 1.32 2.60
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 39699 39436 40187 42814 41722 40479 43291 42330 41841 41976 42737 38748 41040 41985
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 8.94 -2.62 7.83 28.82 -9.82 -11.39 30.82 -8.59 -4.54 1.30 7.45 -0.29 5.91 2.30
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.02 4.95 3.41 10.18 5.10 2.64 7.72 -1.13 0.29 3.70 -1.28 -0.29 5.91 2.30
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 35642 35989 35931 36301 36595 35384 35570 35596 35063 35219 36675 36002 36204 35403
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -14.42 3.96 -0.64 4.18 3.29 -12.59 2.12 0.28 -5.85 1.78 17.59 1.98 0.56 -2.21
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.04 0.97 0.74 -2.04 2.68 -1.68 -1.00 -1.94 -4.19 -0.47 3.10 1.98 0.56 -2.21
GOVERNMENT.................... 27435 27241 27144 27489 27623 27739 28005 28641 28223 28500 28061 27294 27374 28152
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.06 -2.80 -1.41 5.18 1.97 1.69 3.89 9.41 -5.71 3.99 -6.02 1.38 0.29 2.84
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.68 -0.26 -0.21 0.95 0.69 1.83 3.17 4.19 2.17 2.74 0.20 1.38 0.29 2.84
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 42282 42516 40513 43533 45411 46664 47125 46836 46592 48701 46137 42465 42993 46804
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.66 2.24 -17.56 33.32 18.41 11.50 4.01 -2.43 -2.07 19.38 -19.46 0.42 1.24 8.86
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.67 -0.78 -4.72 3.13 7.40 9.76 16.32 7.59 2.60 4.37 -2.10 0.42 1.24 8.86
STATE AND LOCAL............. 25198 24950 24914 24969 25009 24955 25213 26002 25588 25613 25515 24998 24961 25439
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.65 -3.87 -0.57 0.88 0.65 -0.86 4.20 13.11 -6.22 0.40 -1.53 1.67 -0.15 1.92
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.95 -0.01 0.17 -0.02 -0.75 0.02 1.20 4.14 2.31 2.64 1.20 1.67 -0.15 1.92
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 13: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 30015 30891 30769 31143 31078 31947 31717 31964 31201 32165 32052 29923 30970 31707
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.47 3.77 3.28 3.41 3.54 3.42 3.08 2.64 0.40 0.68 1.06 3.68 3.50 2.38
MINING........................ 44286 42000 47040 43333 43613 46154 45122 42927 48974 50556 48876 44483 43997 45794
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -8.18 -9.07 12.00 -4.67 -1.52 9.89 -4.08 -0.94 12.29 9.54 8.32 -4.96 -1.09 4.09
CONSTRUCTION.................. 34305 36636 35147 34005 35387 37636 35269 34130 34467 37074 34986 33898 35294 35375
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.51 4.90 5.00 3.40 3.15 2.73 0.35 0.37 -2.60 -1.49 -0.80 5.40 4.12 0.23
MANUFACTURING................. 35616 35304 36020 36256 36609 36763 36590 36432 35476 36067 36794 34857 36047 36315
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 6.14 3.96 4.39 2.58 2.79 4.13 1.58 0.49 -3.09 -1.89 0.56 4.66 3.42 0.74
DURABLE GOODS............... 36166 35615 36403 36656 37225 36545 36570 36338 35389 35928 36719 35497 36475 36210
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 6.09 2.86 3.53 1.73 2.93 2.61 0.46 -0.87 -4.93 -1.69 0.41 4.50 2.76 -0.72
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 34822 34847 35456 35675 35716 37077 36619 36566 35600 36266 36902 33947 35424 36465
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 6.08 5.51 5.60 3.82 2.57 6.40 3.28 2.50 -0.32 -2.19 0.77 4.66 4.35 2.94
TRADE......................... 22952 24074 23622 23981 23649 24420 24031 23937 23434 24623 24186 23302 23832 23956
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.36 2.96 0.04 3.09 3.04 1.43 1.73 -0.18 -0.91 0.83 0.64 4.90 2.27 0.52
SERVICES...................... 28515 29892 29413 29177 29583 31337 30520 31133 30689 31630 31108 28403 29516 30920
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.22 4.18 4.44 3.31 3.74 4.83 3.76 6.70 3.74 0.94 1.92 2.63 3.92 4.76
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 41962 42297 43011 45852 45145 44476 47428 46182 45924 46547 47298 40582 44076 46002
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.24 7.58 6.19 13.09 7.59 5.15 10.27 0.72 1.73 4.66 -0.27 1.40 8.61 4.37
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 37324 38828 38579 38897 39189 39045 39079 38897 38428 39139 40549 37750 38873 38862
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.20 3.51 3.13 0.37 5.00 0.56 1.30 0.00 -1.94 0.24 3.76 3.68 2.98 -0.03
GOVERNMENT.................... 28428 28752 29028 30519 29368 29983 30649 32413 30467 31100 31047 28552 29417 30878
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.41 2.30 2.70 3.78 3.30 4.28 5.58 6.21 3.74 3.73 1.30 2.95 3.03 4.97
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 44833 45202 42968 47161 49356 50769 51104 51375 51689 53604 50432 44454 46172 51234
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.52 1.57 -2.11 5.78 10.09 12.32 18.93 8.94 4.73 5.58 -1.32 2.03 3.86 10.96
STATE AND LOCAL............. 26021 26306 26681 27830 26504 26948 27631 29562 27516 27915 28278 26149 26830 27914
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.67 2.59 3.13 2.83 1.86 2.44 3.56 6.22 3.82 3.59 2.34 3.24 2.60 4.04
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 14: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 30290 30511 30820 31157 31383 31551 31766 31978 31483 31793 32114 29934 30968 31694
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.60 2.96 4.11 4.44 2.94 2.16 2.75 2.69 -6.05 4.00 4.11 3.68 3.46 2.35
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.39 3.79 3.16 3.27 3.61 3.41 3.07 2.64 0.32 0.77 1.10 3.68 3.46 2.35
MINING........................ 43937 41016 47419 44390 43613 45378 45492 43636 48974 49636 49321 44473 44110 45870
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -20.37 -24.06 78.66 -23.21 -6.82 17.19 1.01 -15.34 58.66 5.52 -2.52 -4.90 -0.82 3.99
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -8.20 -9.09 12.03 -4.56 -0.74 10.64 -4.06 -1.70 12.29 9.38 8.42 -4.90 -0.82 3.99
CONSTRUCTION.................. 34351 34947 35457 35091 35540 35880 35560 35249 34715 35015 35369 33817 35259 35351
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.95 7.12 5.98 -4.07 5.21 3.89 -3.53 -3.45 -5.91 3.50 4.10 5.27 4.27 0.26
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.89 5.33 4.91 3.40 3.46 2.67 0.29 0.45 -2.32 -2.41 -0.54 5.27 4.27 0.26
MANUFACTURING................. 35665 35198 36074 36178 36687 36601 36641 36412 35529 35995 36823 34869 36034 36296
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.06 -5.14 10.33 1.15 5.75 -0.94 0.44 -2.48 -9.35 5.35 9.53 4.61 3.34 0.73
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.96 3.87 4.22 2.45 2.87 3.99 1.57 0.65 -3.16 -1.65 0.50 4.61 3.34 0.73
DURABLE GOODS............... 36189 35568 36531 36482 37292 36444 36704 36259 35431 35902 36795 35510 36468 36210
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.00 -6.69 11.28 -0.54 9.18 -8.79 2.88 -4.76 -8.82 5.41 10.33 4.46 2.70 -0.71
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.92 2.69 3.51 1.56 3.05 2.46 0.47 -0.61 -4.99 -1.49 0.25 4.46 2.70 -0.71
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 34905 34657 35405 35733 35809 36825 36551 36628 35667 36128 36864 33958 35401 36418
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.55 -2.82 8.92 3.75 0.86 11.84 -2.95 0.84 -10.08 5.27 8.40 4.60 4.25 2.87
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.88 5.53 5.21 3.76 2.59 6.26 3.24 2.50 -0.40 -1.89 0.86 4.60 4.25 2.87
TRADE......................... 23389 23642 23567 24018 24090 23974 23969 24033 23883 24168 24120 23309 23829 23965
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.01 4.40 -1.27 7.88 1.20 -1.90 -0.10 1.07 -2.47 4.86 -0.79 4.90 2.23 0.57
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.31 3.04 -0.02 2.95 2.99 1.40 1.70 0.06 -0.86 0.81 0.63 4.90 2.23 0.57
SERVICES...................... 28626 29281 29565 29480 29738 30704 30669 31395 30814 31093 31264 28410 29516 30895
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.69 9.47 3.94 -1.15 3.55 13.64 -0.46 9.81 -7.20 3.67 2.22 2.63 3.90 4.67
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.10 4.22 4.33 3.16 3.88 4.86 3.73 6.50 3.62 1.26 1.94 2.63 3.90 4.67
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 41930 42008 43044 46097 45168 44183 47464 46402 45958 46233 47370 40586 44079 46002
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 11.54 0.75 10.24 31.54 -7.83 -8.44 33.19 -8.65 -3.77 2.41 10.20 1.36 8.61 4.36
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.03 7.64 6.06 12.98 7.72 5.18 10.27 0.66 1.75 4.64 -0.20 1.36 8.61 4.36
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 37645 38336 38486 39085 39618 38622 38999 39020 38513 38790 40650 37706 38881 38789
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -12.38 7.55 1.58 6.37 5.57 -9.68 3.97 0.21 -5.09 2.90 20.61 3.67 3.12 -0.24
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.05 3.56 3.32 0.45 5.24 0.75 1.33 -0.17 -2.79 0.43 4.23 3.67 3.12 -0.24
GOVERNMENT.................... 28976 29017 29074 29597 29904 30277 30704 31396 31000 31390 31103 28585 29398 30844
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.51 0.56 0.79 7.39 4.22 5.08 5.77 9.33 -4.96 5.13 -3.61 3.05 2.84 4.92
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.72 2.30 2.34 3.52 3.20 4.34 5.61 6.08 3.66 3.68 1.30 3.05 2.84 4.92
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 44658 45288 43393 46872 49162 50934 51668 51342 51176 53639 51138 44473 46179 51280
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.06 5.77 -15.72 36.13 21.03 15.21 5.89 -2.50 -1.28 20.69 -17.39 2.07 3.84 11.05
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.71 1.77 -2.28 5.75 10.09 12.47 19.07 9.54 4.10 5.31 -1.03 2.07 3.84 11.05
STATE AND LOCAL............. 26614 26577 26686 26884 27075 27239 27644 28503 28105 28210 28280 26181 26805 27873
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 6.12 -0.56 1.65 3.00 2.88 2.44 6.08 13.02 -5.46 1.50 1.00 3.34 2.38 3.98
% CHG SAVE QTR LAST YR.... 4.00 2.55 2.73 2.53 1.73 2.49 3.59 6.02 3.80 3.57 2.30 3.34 2.38 3.98
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 15: TENNESSEE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS).... 2829 2772 2792 2820 2809 2776 2804 2844 2847 2867 2877 2816 2798 2818
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.69 -0.13 -0.60 -1.00 -0.70 0.12 0.43 0.84 1.36 3.28 2.59 2.03 -0.61 0.69
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)...... 2724 2659 2687 2705 2701 2653 2686 2713 2715 2701 2736 2702 2688 2692
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.79 0.27 -0.54 -0.96 -0.82 -0.24 -0.05 0.30 0.51 1.80 1.86 2.21 -0.52 0.13
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS).... 105 113 104 115 108 123 118 131 132 166 141 113 110 126
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.76 -8.65 -2.06 -2.01 2.38 8.58 12.93 13.44 22.75 35.13 19.29 -2.04 -2.82 14.34
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT).... 63.3 61.9 62.1 62.6 62.3 61.5 62.0 62.8 62.7 63.0 63.0 64.4 62.2 62.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.83 -4.63 -5.10 -2.02 -1.59 -0.63 -0.18 0.24 0.71 2.56 1.62 -0.80 -3.35 0.04
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)..... 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.8 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.6 5.8 4.9 4.0 3.9 4.5
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 16: TENNESSEE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS).... 2816 2804 2799 2795 2796 2807 2811 2819 2834 2898 2883 2816 2798 2818
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -1.13 -1.63 -0.74 -0.54 0.14 1.59 0.54 1.13 2.26 9.27 -2.00 2.03 -0.61 0.69
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.79 -0.13 -0.60 -1.01 -0.70 0.11 0.43 0.85 1.38 3.24 2.58 2.03 -0.61 0.69
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)...... 2705 2698 2689 2684 2683 2691 2688 2692 2697 2738 2738 2702 2688 2692
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -0.84 -1.03 -1.30 -0.71 -0.21 1.22 -0.47 0.66 0.68 6.35 -0.12 2.21 -0.52 0.13
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.94 0.25 -0.54 -0.97 -0.81 -0.25 -0.05 0.30 0.52 1.77 1.86 2.21 -0.52 0.13
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS).... 111 106 110 111 113 116 123 127 138 160 146 113 110 126
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.04 -15.49 14.19 3.84 8.87 10.64 26.05 11.60 40.50 79.32 -30.31 -2.00 -2.79 14.37
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.84 -8.91 -2.14 -2.03 2.20 9.32 12.05 14.09 21.61 37.21 18.32 -2.00 -2.79 14.37
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT).... 63.0 62.6 62.3 62.1 62.0 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.4 63.7 63.2 64.4 62.2 62.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.22 -2.72 -1.84 -1.35 -0.39 1.05 0.00 0.34 1.52 8.43 -3.50 -0.79 -3.36 0.04
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.74 -4.63 -5.10 -2.03 -1.58 -0.64 -0.18 0.25 0.73 2.52 1.61 -0.79 -3.36 0.04
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)..... 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.5 5.1 4.0 3.9 4.5
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 17: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL........................... 18436 16337 17569 17517 18025 15739 17293 16855 18078 15767 17222 69050 69448 67966
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.81 4.39 1.00 -0.30 -2.23 -3.66 -1.57 -3.78 0.30 0.18 -0.41 7.19 0.58 -2.13
AUTO DEALERS.................. 1763 1988 2056 2055 1712 1857 1963 1967 2078 1904 2029 7748 7811 7865
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.72 7.43 0.92 -2.00 -2.88 -6.62 -4.49 -4.28 21.35 2.55 3.36 12.02 0.82 0.69
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 1024 885 1032 1014 978 850 962 897 896 733 889 4038 3908 3605
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.93 -4.10 -4.52 0.33 -4.55 -3.94 -6.79 -11.51 -8.37 -13.83 -7.59 -2.64 -3.22 -7.76
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 3142 2963 3130 3059 2934 2616 3024 2765 2873 2538 2928 12250 12087 11278
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.88 8.91 -2.97 -3.22 -6.62 -11.73 -3.39 -9.62 -2.07 -2.96 -3.19 11.52 -1.33 -6.69
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1396 1371 1493 1494 1418 1382 1498 1521 1481 1424 1545 5595 5776 5882
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.94 4.09 3.93 3.44 1.52 0.79 0.33 1.80 4.46 3.02 3.12 5.23 3.24 1.83
FOOD STORES................... 2044 1768 1893 1883 2027 1748 1836 1834 1966 1703 1779 7538 7571 7384
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.06 -0.12 3.03 -0.11 -0.86 -1.15 -3.02 -2.63 -2.99 -2.54 -3.12 2.33 0.45 -2.48
LIQUOR STORES................. 111 81 86 84 107 83 86 82 111 86 88 350 358 362
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.22 3.99 6.25 4.20 -3.69 2.76 0.64 -2.04 3.25 2.64 2.37 6.49 2.12 1.28
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 428 350 450 467 433 337 437 448 405 321 431 1672 1700 1627
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.82 4.42 3.40 -1.52 1.20 -3.80 -2.90 -3.95 -6.50 -4.65 -1.37 3.09 1.65 -4.29
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 5749 4525 4913 4892 5652 4435 4799 4671 5613 4505 4864 19718 19982 19518
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.49 3.95 2.10 1.83 -1.69 -2.00 -2.32 -4.51 -0.69 1.58 1.36 5.87 1.34 -2.32
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1704 1324 1430 1441 1699 1364 1413 1344 1623 1296 1365 5884 5893 5745
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.95 -0.09 -1.22 2.43 -0.34 3.07 -1.14 -6.74 -4.42 -5.02 -3.43 11.04 0.16 -2.51
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1073 1081 1086 1127 1067 1068 1274 1325 1033 1258 1304 4257 4361 4699
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 7.49 10.70 8.45 -6.47 -0.60 -1.25 17.28 17.50 -3.17 17.77 2.37 11.74 2.46 7.74
PER CAPITA ($).................. 3256 2877 3086 3069 3153 2749 3015 2932 3139 2732 2973 12245 12185 11836
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.58 3.19 -0.13 -1.35 -3.15 -4.46 -2.28 -4.46 -0.45 -0.62 -1.40 5.91 -0.49 -2.87
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 18: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL........................... 17501 17779 17325 17324 17102 17067 17070 16685 17217 17045 17015 69069 69531 68039
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 4.51 6.50 -9.82 -0.03 -5.02 -0.82 0.07 -8.74 13.40 -3.94 -0.72 7.41 0.67 -2.14
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.90 3.81 1.13 0.08 -2.28 -4.00 -1.47 -3.69 0.67 -0.13 -0.33 7.41 0.67 -2.14
AUTO DEALERS.................. 1950 2012 1976 1925 1897 1871 1892 1843 2303 1915 1959 7750 7810 7910
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -3.11 13.14 -6.91 -9.83 -5.75 -5.36 4.55 -9.98 143.78 -52.16 9.54 12.02 0.78 1.27
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 9.04 6.90 1.25 -2.06 -2.73 -6.98 -4.24 -4.28 21.39 2.36 3.56 12.02 0.78 1.27
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 993 1001 977 987 949 959 909 876 870 825 840 4048 3914 3614
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.10 3.23 -9.29 4.12 -14.68 4.44 -19.23 -13.81 -2.79 -19.17 7.60 -2.47 -3.30 -7.67
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.74 -4.67 -4.72 0.85 -4.50 -4.22 -6.96 -11.25 -8.31 -14.00 -7.61 -2.47 -3.30 -7.67
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 3120 3270 2951 2997 2904 2865 2861 2720 2839 2770 2777 12256 12123 11285
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.33 20.71 -33.68 6.32 -11.83 -5.23 -0.66 -18.29 18.78 -9.44 1.04 11.90 -1.09 -6.91
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.47 7.85 -2.63 -2.47 -6.93 -12.39 -3.07 -9.25 -2.23 -3.33 -2.92 11.90 -1.09 -6.91
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1418 1446 1446 1446 1439 1454 1452 1474 1504 1496 1498 5598 5778 5883
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.73 8.09 0.03 0.01 -1.85 4.05 -0.53 6.18 8.41 -2.17 0.65 5.32 3.20 1.83
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.94 3.57 4.12 3.65 1.50 0.54 0.40 1.91 4.48 2.88 3.18 5.32 3.20 1.83
FOOD STORES................... 1900 1892 1906 1892 1882 1870 1850 1842 1826 1821 1793 7535 7572 7387
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 1.45 -1.61 2.87 -2.96 -1.98 -2.61 -4.18 -1.74 -3.39 -0.98 -6.15 2.50 0.50 -2.44
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.25 -0.10 3.19 -0.09 -0.95 -1.20 -2.94 -2.64 -2.99 -2.58 -3.09 2.50 0.50 -2.44
LIQUOR STORES................. 91 89 90 91 88 91 91 90 91 93 93 349 358 362
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 18.01 -11.02 7.70 4.89 -14.28 14.97 -0.97 -5.81 6.50 11.34 -1.78 6.40 2.59 1.12
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.19 4.01 6.03 4.36 -3.65 2.72 0.59 -2.08 3.38 2.55 2.34 6.40 2.59 1.12
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 424 439 421 417 427 420 410 402 399 400 404 1674 1704 1630
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.51 14.75 -15.53 -3.73 10.09 -6.06 -9.94 -7.60 -2.95 1.48 4.53 3.34 1.78 -4.33
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.02 3.58 3.79 -0.86 0.68 -4.24 -2.69 -3.69 -6.67 -4.85 -1.24 3.34 1.78 -4.33
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 5003 5047 5010 5027 4927 4929 4892 4807 4898 4996 4959 19718 20010 19525
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.56 3.52 -2.91 1.42 -7.77 0.16 -2.96 -6.75 7.79 8.27 -2.93 6.11 1.48 -2.42
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.78 3.42 2.02 2.09 -1.53 -2.34 -2.35 -4.38 -0.58 1.37 1.38 6.11 1.48 -2.42
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1481 1468 1469 1484 1477 1503 1450 1391 1412 1422 1401 5891 5898 5757
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 12.68 -3.57 0.36 4.19 -1.90 7.18 -13.25 -15.31 6.16 2.81 -5.79 11.80 0.11 -2.39
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.18 -1.04 -1.37 3.24 -0.27 2.40 -1.27 -6.25 -4.38 -5.37 -3.40 11.80 0.11 -2.39
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1119 1115 1079 1057 1112 1105 1264 1241 1076 1307 1290 4249 4364 4686
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -4.85 -1.51 -12.32 -7.89 22.56 -2.52 71.11 -7.15 -43.53 117.70 -5.10 11.31 2.69 7.38
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 7.21 11.51 8.28 -6.73 -0.63 -0.89 17.14 17.38 -3.29 18.22 2.02 11.31 2.69 7.38
PER CAPITA ($).................. 3091 3131 3043 3036 2992 2981 2976 2903 2989 2953 2937 12250 12201 11850
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.35 5.31 -10.83 -0.91 -5.65 -1.48 -0.59 -9.51 12.48 -4.75 -2.16 6.12 -0.40 -2.88
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.68 2.61 0.00 -0.97 -3.20 -4.80 -2.18 -4.37 -0.08 -0.92 -1.31 6.12 -0.40 -2.88
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 19: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL........................... 19472 17402 18818 18860 19514 17180 18960 18476 19857 17366 19089 72341 74595 74473
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.89 7.06 3.58 2.24 0.22 -1.28 0.76 -2.04 1.76 1.08 0.68 8.96 3.12 -0.16
AUTO DEALERS.................. 1862 2118 2202 2213 1854 2027 2153 2156 2282 2097 2249 8114 8386 8618
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 10.91 10.18 3.50 0.49 -0.46 -4.31 -2.23 -2.55 23.13 3.48 4.49 13.85 3.36 2.76
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 1082 943 1105 1091 1058 928 1055 983 984 807 985 4230 4198 3950
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.00 -1.65 -2.08 2.88 -2.16 -1.56 -4.59 -9.91 -7.03 -13.05 -6.58 -1.04 -0.76 -5.91
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 3319 3156 3353 3294 3177 2855 3316 3031 3156 2796 3245 12833 12980 12358
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.01 11.70 -0.49 -0.76 -4.29 -9.55 -1.11 -7.99 -0.64 -2.08 -2.13 13.36 1.14 -4.79
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1475 1461 1599 1609 1535 1508 1642 1668 1626 1568 1712 5860 6203 6445
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.01 6.76 6.59 6.07 4.06 3.27 2.70 3.64 5.99 3.95 4.25 6.96 5.86 3.89
FOOD STORES................... 2159 1883 2028 2028 2194 1908 2013 2010 2159 1876 1972 7897 8133 8091
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.07 2.44 5.67 2.43 1.61 1.29 -0.73 -0.86 -1.57 -1.65 -2.06 4.03 3.00 -0.52
LIQUOR STORES................. 118 86 92 90 116 91 95 90 122 94 98 367 384 397
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 10.39 6.65 8.96 6.85 -1.28 5.30 3.02 -0.26 4.76 3.57 3.49 8.28 4.69 3.29
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 452 373 482 502 468 368 479 491 444 354 478 1752 1826 1783
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.84 7.09 6.05 0.98 3.73 -1.43 -0.61 -2.22 -5.14 -3.79 -0.29 4.80 4.22 -2.38
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 6072 4820 5263 5267 6119 4841 5262 5121 6165 4962 5392 20663 21468 21389
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.57 6.61 4.71 4.42 0.76 0.42 -0.01 -2.78 0.76 2.50 2.47 7.63 3.90 -0.37
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1800 1410 1531 1552 1839 1489 1550 1474 1783 1427 1513 6165 6332 6295
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 7.06 2.46 1.31 5.03 2.15 5.62 1.20 -5.05 -3.03 -4.15 -2.37 12.87 2.70 -0.58
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1134 1152 1163 1214 1155 1166 1396 1452 1135 1385 1445 4460 4684 5149
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 9.65 13.53 11.22 -4.09 1.88 1.19 20.05 19.63 -1.76 18.83 3.49 13.61 5.03 9.93
PER CAPITA ($).................. 3439 3065 3305 3305 3414 3000 3306 3215 3448 3009 3295 12828 13088 12969
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.65 5.83 2.42 1.16 -0.73 -2.10 0.03 -2.73 1.00 0.28 -0.32 7.66 2.03 -0.91
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 20: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 200104 200201 200202 1999 2000 2001
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TOTAL........................... 18485 18938 18557 18653 18515 18629 18716 18290 18912 18774 18859 72339 74663 74546
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 7.00 10.17 -7.81 2.08 -2.92 2.48 1.88 -8.80 14.31 -2.88 1.83 9.17 3.21 -0.16
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.99 6.47 3.72 2.63 0.16 -1.63 0.86 -1.95 2.14 0.78 0.77 9.17 3.21 -0.16
AUTO DEALERS.................. 2060 2143 2116 2073 2054 2042 2075 2020 2530 2110 2172 8117 8386 8667
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -0.80 17.05 -4.83 -7.93 -3.67 -2.21 6.44 -10.04 145.74 -51.63 12.35 13.86 3.32 3.35
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 11.23 9.64 3.84 0.43 -0.30 -4.68 -1.98 -2.54 23.16 3.29 4.69 13.86 3.32 3.35
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 1049 1066 1047 1063 1027 1047 997 960 955 908 931 4238 4203 3959
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 8.62 6.79 -7.27 6.31 -12.79 7.91 -17.77 -13.87 -2.01 -18.28 10.37 -0.88 -0.84 -5.80
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.81 -2.23 -2.28 3.41 -2.11 -1.85 -4.76 -9.65 -6.97 -13.22 -6.60 -0.88 -0.84 -5.80
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 3296 3484 3161 3227 3144 3127 3136 2981 3119 3051 3078 12837 13016 12364
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 8.86 24.88 -32.20 8.56 -9.88 -2.08 1.14 -18.35 19.74 -8.44 3.64 13.73 1.39 -5.01
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 7.59 10.62 -0.14 0.01 -4.60 -10.23 -0.79 -7.61 -0.80 -2.46 -1.86 13.73 1.39 -5.01
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1498 1540 1549 1557 1558 1587 1592 1616 1652 1647 1660 5863 6204 6446
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 9.28 11.82 2.26 2.12 0.32 7.52 1.26 6.11 9.28 -1.09 3.23 7.05 5.82 3.89
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.01 6.22 6.79 6.28 4.04 3.02 2.77 3.76 6.00 3.81 4.31 7.05 5.82 3.89
FOOD STORES................... 2007 2016 2041 2037 2038 2041 2028 2019 2006 2006 1987 7891 8131 8094
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.87 1.78 5.17 -0.91 0.18 0.63 -2.45 -1.81 -2.61 0.10 -3.74 4.18 3.05 -0.47
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.75 2.46 5.83 2.45 1.53 1.24 -0.64 -0.87 -1.57 -1.70 -2.03 4.18 3.05 -0.47
LIQUOR STORES................. 96 94 97 98 95 99 100 98 100 103 103 366 385 397
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 20.82 -7.95 10.10 7.10 -12.38 18.80 0.82 -5.88 7.36 12.56 0.74 8.17 5.18 3.17
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 10.36 6.68 8.74 7.02 -1.25 5.26 2.96 -0.31 4.89 3.48 3.46 8.17 5.18 3.17
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 448 468 451 449 462 459 449 440 438 441 448 1753 1830 1786
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 5.98 18.71 -13.64 -1.70 12.52 -2.94 -8.31 -7.67 -2.17 2.59 7.21 5.03 4.36 -2.39
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.99 6.24 6.44 1.66 3.19 -1.87 -0.39 -1.94 -5.31 -3.99 -0.16 5.03 4.36 -2.39
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 5284 5376 5366 5413 5334 5380 5363 5269 5380 5503 5497 20652 21488 21392
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 9.10 7.10 -0.74 3.55 -5.73 3.50 -1.20 -6.82 8.66 9.46 -0.44 7.85 4.05 -0.45
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.86 6.07 4.63 4.68 0.93 0.07 -0.05 -2.65 0.87 2.29 2.49 7.85 4.05 -0.45
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1564 1563 1573 1598 1599 1640 1590 1525 1551 1566 1553 6170 6334 6307
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 15.36 -0.25 2.61 6.38 0.27 10.75 -11.69 -15.37 7.01 3.94 -3.38 13.61 2.66 -0.42
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 7.29 1.49 1.15 5.87 2.22 4.93 1.07 -4.55 -2.99 -4.51 -2.34 13.61 2.66 -0.42
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1182 1188 1156 1138 1204 1206 1386 1360 1181 1439 1429 4452 4686 5134
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.58 1.89 -10.36 -5.95 25.27 0.73 74.20 -7.22 -43.08 120.09 -2.66 13.17 5.26 9.56
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 9.36 14.37 11.05 -4.35 1.85 1.56 19.91 19.50 -1.88 19.29 3.14 13.17 5.26 9.56
PER CAPITA ($).................. 3265 3335 3259 3269 3239 3254 3263 3182 3284 3253 3256 12830 13102 12983
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 5.81 8.95 -8.83 1.17 -3.56 1.80 1.21 -9.58 13.38 -3.70 0.35 7.86 2.12 -0.91
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.74 5.24 2.55 1.55 -0.78 -2.45 0.13 -2.64 1.38 -0.02 -0.23 7.86 2.12 -0.91
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
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