TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table
1. Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators (SA)*
2. Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators (SA)
3. Personal Income by Components (96$, SAAR)*
4. Personal Income by Components (Current$, SAAR)
5. Employment, Nonagricultural (NSA)*
6. Employment, Durable Goods (NSA)
7. Employment, Nondurable Goods (NSA)
8. Employment, Nonagricultural (SA)
9. Employment, Durable Goods (SA)
10. Employment, Nondurable Goods (SA)
11. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (96$, NSA)
12. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (96$, SA)
13. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (Current$, NSA)
14. Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate (Current$, SA)
15. Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate (NSA)
16. Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate (SA)
17. Taxable Sales (96$, NSA)
18. Taxable Sales (96$, SA)
19. Taxable Sales (Current$, NSA)
20. Taxable Sales (Current$, SA)
*Key: SA=Seasonally Adjusted; NSA=Not Seasonally Adjusted
SAAR=Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
US GDP (BIL96$) SAAR............ 9363.2 9387.9 9466.8 9546.4 9647.1 9721.9 9799.3 9888.5 9979.210057.310119.8 9214.5 9441.1 9764.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 5.04 1.06 3.40 3.41 4.28 3.14 3.22 3.69 3.72 3.17 2.51 0.25 2.46 3.42
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.44 2.12 3.05 3.22 3.03 3.56 3.51 3.58 3.44 3.45 3.27 0.25 2.46 3.42
US GDP (BIL$) SAAR.............. 10313.110369.910516.810676.510881.911037.811201.011376.911553.811710.811851.510082.210469.111124.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 6.46 2.22 5.79 6.21 7.92 5.86 6.04 6.43 6.36 5.55 4.89 2.62 3.84 6.26
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.84 3.18 4.15 5.16 5.51 6.44 6.51 6.56 6.17 6.10 5.81 2.62 3.84 6.26
IMPLICIT DEFLATOR,GDP........... 110.1 110.5 111.1 111.8 112.8 113.5 114.3 115.1 115.8 116.4 117.1 109.4 110.9 113.9
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.32 1.17 2.30 2.73 3.48 2.65 2.70 2.65 2.56 2.30 2.32 2.37 1.34 2.74
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.37 1.04 1.06 1.88 2.42 2.79 2.89 2.87 2.64 2.55 2.46 2.37 1.34 2.74
US PERS CONS DEFL (1996=100).... 110.1 110.8 111.4 112.2 113.1 113.8 114.6 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.5 109.6 111.2 114.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.10 2.57 2.22 2.65 3.21 2.64 2.77 2.79 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.02 1.45 2.75
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.91 1.09 1.67 2.13 2.66 2.68 2.82 2.85 2.65 2.60 2.52 2.02 1.45 2.75
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL96$) SAAR 141300 141119 141567 139898 141975 143658 143977 143037 145410 146603 147598 139362 140971 143162
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.50 -0.51 1.28 -4.63 6.07 4.83 0.89 -2.59 6.80 3.32 2.74 1.17 1.15 1.55
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.41 1.40 1.00 0.81 0.48 1.80 1.70 2.24 2.42 2.05 2.52 1.17 1.15 1.55
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL96$) SAAR 7999.3 8049.0 8108.9 8143.1 8188.9 8229.8 8269.0 8306.5 8382.9 8440.5 8493.3 7927.3 8075.1 8248.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 3.99 2.51 3.01 1.69 2.27 2.02 1.92 1.82 3.73 2.78 2.53 1.27 1.86 2.15
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.84 1.71 2.10 2.80 2.37 2.25 1.97 2.01 2.37 2.56 2.71 1.27 1.86 2.15
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR.. 155628 156417 157777 156937 160531 163497 164983 165036 168777 171188 173399 152689 156690 163512
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 8.68 2.04 3.52 -2.11 9.48 7.60 3.69 0.13 9.38 5.84 5.27 3.21 2.62 4.35
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.33 2.51 2.68 2.96 3.15 4.53 4.57 5.16 5.14 4.70 5.10 3.21 2.62 4.35
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR.. 8810.4 8921.5 9037.4 9134.9 9259.2 9366.4 9475.5 9584.0 9730.1 9856.0 9977.9 8685.3 8976.0 9421.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 5.13 5.14 5.30 4.39 5.55 4.71 4.74 4.66 6.24 5.28 5.04 3.32 3.35 4.96
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.76 2.83 3.80 4.99 5.09 4.99 4.85 4.92 5.09 5.23 5.30 3.32 3.35 4.96
TN NONAGRIC JOBS (THOUS)........ 2718.8 2703.7 2699.4 2704.1 2724.5 2721.4 2731.4 2758.0 2769.7 2777.5 2781.2 2712.5 2706.5 2733.8
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.93 -2.21 -0.62 0.69 3.05 -0.45 1.48 3.95 1.71 1.13 0.54 -0.61 -0.22 1.01
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -0.35 -0.21 -0.27 -0.06 0.21 0.66 1.18 1.99 1.66 2.06 1.82 -0.61 -0.22 1.01
US NONAGRIC JOBS (MIL).......... 130.8 130.7 130.8 131.1 131.7 132.3 133.1 133.9 134.6 135.2 135.9 131.9 130.8 132.7
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -1.12 -0.12 0.31 0.71 2.06 1.90 2.19 2.43 2.08 1.95 1.94 0.16 -0.82 1.46
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -1.26 -1.11 -0.85 -0.06 0.73 1.24 1.71 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.10 0.16 -0.82 1.46
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)........ 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 5.0 4.8
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)........ 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.8 5.9 5.9
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%).... 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.6 7.0 6.9 4.8 5.1
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)............. 468.0 466.0 461.2 460.3 460.3 462.0 459.1 460.0 459.4 462.1 460.8 478.7 463.9 460.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -1.72 -1.73 -4.04 -0.77 0.00 1.46 -2.47 0.79 -0.54 2.36 -1.11 -5.57 -3.10 -0.76
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -4.68 -2.74 -2.85 -2.07 -1.65 -0.86 -0.46 -0.07 -0.20 0.02 0.37 -5.57 -3.10 -0.76
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS (CONT.)
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL96$)....... 17045 17015 16674 17410 17078 17151 17032 17774 17383 17295 17507 68039 68144 69036
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -3.94 -0.72 -7.77 18.86 -7.40 1.71 -2.75 18.60 -8.51 -2.01 5.00 -2.14 0.15 1.31
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -0.13 -0.33 -0.06 1.12 0.19 0.80 2.15 2.09 1.78 0.84 2.79 -2.14 0.15 1.31
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)......... 18774 18859 18583 19530 19311 19520 19517 20508 20177 20195 20567 74546 75746 78855
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -2.88 1.83 -5.72 22.00 -4.43 4.40 -0.05 21.90 -6.31 0.38 7.57 -0.16 1.61 4.10
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.78 0.77 1.60 3.27 2.86 3.50 5.03 5.00 4.48 3.46 5.38 -0.16 1.61 4.10
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG (96$).. 28866 28973 29064 28642 28775 29436 29194 28748 29183 29431 29454 28928 28886 29038
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 2.87 1.50 1.25 -5.68 1.87 9.52 -3.25 -5.97 6.19 3.43 0.32 0.32 -0.15 0.53
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -0.14 0.00 -0.37 -0.07 -0.31 1.60 0.45 0.37 1.42 -0.02 0.89 0.32 -0.15 0.53
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG ($).... 31793 32114 32391 32131 32536 33502 33453 33170 33873 34366 34603 31694 32107 33165
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.00 4.11 3.50 -3.18 5.14 12.41 -0.58 -3.35 8.75 5.95 2.79 2.35 1.30 3.30
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.77 1.10 1.29 2.06 2.34 4.32 3.28 3.23 4.11 2.58 3.44 2.35 1.30 3.30
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 2: SELECTED PER CAPITA U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
US GDP (96$) SAAR............... 33654 33675 33891 34104 34392 34591 34800 35041 35292 35497 35648 33290 33831 34706
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.19 0.25 2.59 2.54 3.42 2.33 2.43 2.80 2.90 2.34 1.72 -0.57 1.63 2.59
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.62 1.29 2.22 2.38 2.19 2.72 2.68 2.75 2.62 2.62 2.44 -0.57 1.63 2.59
US GDP ($) SAAR................. 37068 37197 37650 38141 38795 39274 39778 40315 40861 41333 41748 36424 37514 39540
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 5.59 1.40 4.96 5.32 7.03 5.03 5.23 5.51 5.52 4.70 4.08 1.78 2.99 5.40
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.00 2.35 3.31 4.30 4.66 5.58 5.65 5.70 5.33 5.24 4.95 1.78 2.99 5.40
TN PERSONAL INCOME (96$) SAAR... 24482 24362 24370 24050 24332 24530 24511 24315 24637 24744 24915 24271 24316 24422
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 6.59 -1.96 0.14 -5.15 4.76 3.30 -0.31 -3.15 5.40 1.74 2.81 0.41 0.19 0.43
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.60 0.40 -0.07 -0.18 -0.62 0.69 0.58 1.10 1.25 0.87 1.65 0.41 0.19 0.43
TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR..... 26965 27003 27161 26980 27512 27918 28087 28055 28596 28893 29271 26592 27027 27893
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.76 0.56 2.36 -2.64 8.13 6.03 2.45 -0.45 7.94 4.22 5.33 2.43 1.64 3.20
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.52 1.50 1.60 1.94 2.03 3.39 3.41 3.99 3.94 3.49 4.21 2.43 1.64 3.20
US PERSONAL INCOME (96$) SAAR... 28752 28872 29030 29091 29194 29282 29365 29435 29647 29790 29919 28639 28936 29319
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 3.14 1.69 2.20 0.84 1.43 1.22 1.14 0.95 2.91 1.95 1.73 0.44 1.04 1.32
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.02 0.89 1.28 1.96 1.54 1.42 1.16 1.18 1.55 1.73 1.88 0.44 1.04 1.32
US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR..... 31667 32002 32354 32634 33009 33326 33650 33962 34411 34786 35148 31378 32164 33487
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.27 4.30 4.47 3.51 4.68 3.89 3.94 3.76 5.40 4.43 4.23 2.47 2.51 4.11
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 0.93 1.99 2.97 4.14 4.24 4.14 4.01 4.07 4.25 4.38 4.45 2.47 2.51 4.11
TN TAXABLE SALES (96$).......... 2953 2937 2870 2993 2927 2929 2900 3021 2945 2919 2955 11850 11754 11777
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -4.75 -2.16 -8.81 18.22 -8.55 0.23 -3.91 17.91 -9.72 -3.51 5.06 -2.88 -0.81 0.19
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -0.92 -1.31 -1.12 0.12 -0.90 -0.29 1.02 0.95 0.63 -0.33 1.92 -2.88 -0.81 0.19
TN TAXABLE SALES ($)............ 3253 3256 3199 3358 3309 3333 3323 3486 3419 3409 3472 12983 13065 13451
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -3.70 0.35 -6.78 21.35 -5.61 2.88 -1.25 21.20 -7.54 -1.16 7.64 -0.91 0.64 2.96
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -0.02 -0.23 0.53 2.25 1.74 2.38 3.86 3.83 3.30 2.27 4.49 -0.91 0.64 2.96
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 3: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME............ 141300 141119 141567 139898 141975 143658 143977 143037 145410 146603 147598 139362 140971 143162
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 7.50 -0.51 1.28 -4.63 6.07 4.83 0.89 -2.59 6.80 3.32 2.74 1.17 1.15 1.55
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.41 1.40 1.00 0.81 0.48 1.80 1.70 2.24 2.42 2.05 2.52 1.17 1.15 1.55
WAGES AND SALARIES............. 79411 79273 79404 78408 79362 81082 80722 80277 81827 82752 82939 79281 79124 80361
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 5.16 -0.69 0.66 -4.92 4.96 8.95 -1.76 -2.19 7.95 4.60 0.91 -0.24 -0.20 1.56
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -0.30 -0.02 -0.45 -0.01 -0.06 2.28 1.66 2.38 3.11 2.06 2.75 -0.24 -0.20 1.56
OTHER LABOR INCOME............. 8879 8669 9007 8811 8689 8620 8930 8988 9044 8905 9090 8725 8841 8806
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 8.20 -9.12 16.54 -8.43 -5.44 -3.12 15.16 2.62 2.54 -6.01 8.58 0.92 1.33 -0.40
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.99 -0.41 2.53 1.21 -2.14 -0.56 -0.86 2.01 4.09 3.31 1.80 0.92 1.33 -0.40
PROPRIETORS INCOME............. 14315 14471 14495 14065 13922 14520 14794 14677 14627 15510 15708 13969 14336 14478
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 10.86 4.41 0.66 -11.35 -3.99 18.33 7.75 -3.13 -1.35 26.42 5.21 0.68 2.63 0.99
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.14 3.52 3.05 0.81 -2.75 0.34 2.06 4.35 5.06 6.82 6.18 0.68 2.63 0.99
RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS........ 21213 21191 21129 20691 21909 21057 21178 20747 21671 21152 21305 21297 21056 21223
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 3.89 -0.42 -1.16 -8.04 25.72 -14.66 2.31 -7.90 19.05 -9.23 2.92 -0.04 -1.13 0.79
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -1.57 -0.64 -0.80 -1.53 3.28 -0.63 0.23 0.27 -1.09 0.45 0.60 -0.04 -1.13 0.79
TRANSFER PAYMENTS.............. 24799 24869 24855 25136 25386 25814 25783 25753 25748 25915 26219 23338 24915 25684
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 17.06 1.13 -0.24 4.61 4.03 6.91 -0.47 -0.47 -0.08 2.61 4.78 7.75 6.76 3.09
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 8.64 7.57 5.47 5.43 2.37 3.80 3.74 2.45 1.43 0.39 1.69 7.75 6.76 3.09
LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS..... 6321 6328 6310 6190 6261 6405 6390 6359 6458 6575 6601 6223 6287 6354
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 9.78 0.42 -1.14 -7.37 4.65 9.51 -0.90 -1.91 6.36 7.45 1.57 1.53 1.03 1.06
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.60 1.76 0.55 0.24 -0.95 1.21 1.28 2.74 3.15 2.66 3.30 1.53 1.03 1.06
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT........... -996 -1026 -1012 -1023 -1032 -1031 -1039 -1045 -1050 -1057 -1063 -1025 -1014 -1037
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 5.29 12.59 -5.28 4.28 3.66 -0.26 3.07 2.31 1.70 2.74 2.31 -4.40 -1.05 2.24
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -5.14 -0.72 -2.07 4.02 3.62 0.52 2.67 2.18 1.70 2.45 2.27 -4.40 -1.05 2.24
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)... 24482 24362 24370 24050 24332 24530 24511 24315 24637 24744 24915 24271 24316 24422
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 6.59 -1.96 0.14 -5.15 4.76 3.30 -0.31 -3.15 5.40 1.74 2.81 0.41 0.19 0.43
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 0.60 0.40 -0.07 -0.18 -0.62 0.69 0.58 1.10 1.25 0.87 1.65 0.41 0.19 0.43
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TABLE 4: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME............ 155628 156417 157777 156937 160531 163497 164983 165036 168777 171188 173399 152689 156690 163512
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 8.68 2.04 3.52 -2.11 9.48 7.60 3.69 0.13 9.38 5.84 5.27 3.21 2.62 4.35
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 2.33 2.51 2.68 2.96 3.15 4.53 4.57 5.16 5.14 4.70 5.10 3.21 2.62 4.35
WAGES AND SALARIES............. 87463 87867 88496 87958 89735 92279 92499 92624 94977 96630 97437 86862 87946 91784
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 6.32 1.86 2.89 -2.41 8.33 11.84 0.96 0.54 10.56 7.14 3.39 1.77 1.25 4.36
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 0.61 1.07 1.21 2.12 2.60 5.02 4.52 5.30 5.84 4.71 5.34 1.77 1.25 4.36
OTHER LABOR INCOME............. 9779 9609 10038 9884 9824 9810 10232 10370 10498 10399 10679 9560 9827 10059
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 9.39 -6.79 19.12 -6.01 -2.40 -0.56 18.34 5.48 5.02 -3.72 11.24 2.96 2.80 2.36
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 2.92 0.68 4.24 3.37 0.46 2.10 1.93 4.92 6.85 5.99 4.37 2.96 2.80 2.36
PROPRIETORS INCOME............. 15767 16039 16154 15778 15742 16526 16952 16934 16977 18111 18454 15305 15935 16538
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 12.07 7.09 2.90 -9.01 -0.91 21.46 10.73 -0.43 1.03 29.50 7.79 2.71 4.12 3.79
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 4.08 4.65 4.77 2.96 -0.16 3.03 4.94 7.33 7.85 9.59 8.86 2.71 4.12 3.79
RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS........ 23364 23488 23548 23211 24772 23965 24267 23937 25153 24700 25029 23333 23403 24236
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 5.03 2.13 1.03 -5.61 29.75 -12.41 5.14 -5.33 21.92 -7.02 5.44 1.97 0.30 3.56
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -0.68 0.45 0.86 0.57 6.03 2.03 3.06 3.13 1.54 3.06 3.14 1.97 0.30 3.56
TRANSFER PAYMENTS.............. 27314 27565 27700 28198 28704 29379 29545 29714 29886 30261 30802 25571 27694 29336
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 18.34 3.73 1.98 7.38 7.38 9.74 2.28 2.31 2.33 5.11 7.35 9.92 8.31 5.93
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 9.63 8.75 7.23 7.68 5.09 6.58 6.66 5.38 4.12 3.00 4.25 9.92 8.31 5.93
LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS..... 6962 7014 7032 6944 7079 7289 7322 7337 7496 7678 7755 6818 6988 7257
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 10.98 3.00 1.05 -4.92 8.01 12.41 1.85 0.82 8.93 10.06 4.06 3.59 2.50 3.85
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 2.52 2.87 2.22 2.37 1.68 3.93 4.13 5.67 5.89 5.33 5.90 3.59 2.50 3.85
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT........... -1097 -1137 -1128 -1147 -1167 -1174 -1191 -1206 -1218 -1234 -1248 -1123 -1127 -1184
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 6.45 15.48 -3.18 7.04 6.99 2.38 5.92 5.16 4.16 5.24 4.82 -2.48 0.39 5.05
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -4.28 0.37 -0.44 6.24 6.37 3.22 5.56 5.10 4.39 5.12 4.84 -2.48 0.39 5.05
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)... 26965 27003 27161 26980 27512 27918 28087 28055 28596 28893 29271 26592 27027 27893
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 7.76 0.56 2.36 -2.64 8.13 6.03 2.45 -0.45 7.94 4.22 5.33 2.43 1.64 3.20
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.52 1.50 1.60 1.94 2.03 3.39 3.41 3.99 3.94 3.49 4.21 2.43 1.64 3.20
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 5: TENNESSEE NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR
THOUSANDS OF JOBS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 2687.3 2708.9 2700.7 2728.7 2692.8 2726.6 2732.8 2783.0 2736.9 2782.8 2783.2 2711.5 2706.4 2733.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.27 -0.17 -0.26 -0.06 0.20 0.66 1.19 1.99 1.64 2.06 1.84 -0.64 -0.19 1.01
MINING........................ 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -7.69 -9.76 -9.44 -6.69 -1.11 -1.47 -1.44 -1.41 -1.38 -1.35 -1.33 -3.03 -8.42 -1.36
CONSTRUCTION.................. 115.6 120.0 121.6 120.1 115.7 122.1 124.2 122.8 119.8 126.9 128.4 121.2 119.3 121.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.89 -1.80 -1.88 -0.69 0.04 1.68 2.14 2.23 3.57 3.93 3.33 -2.98 -1.57 1.54
MANUFACTURING................. 467.1 466.4 461.0 461.0 459.4 462.3 458.9 460.7 458.5 462.4 460.6 478.5 463.9 460.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -4.45 -2.80 -2.84 -2.07 -1.65 -0.87 -0.45 -0.07 -0.20 0.02 0.37 -5.58 -3.05 -0.76
DURABLE GOODS............... 274.3 273.6 272.0 271.6 271.1 275.4 274.9 275.6 274.9 279.1 279.1 281.3 272.9 274.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -4.95 -3.36 -2.12 -1.53 -1.18 0.65 1.06 1.49 1.41 1.37 1.54 -6.49 -3.01 0.50
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 192.8 192.8 189.0 189.5 188.3 187.0 184.0 185.1 183.6 183.3 181.5 197.1 191.0 186.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.71 -2.00 -3.87 -2.83 -2.32 -3.01 -2.64 -2.30 -2.51 -1.96 -1.38 -4.27 -3.10 -2.57
TRADE......................... 627.9 633.5 638.5 656.1 633.5 645.3 654.6 672.2 652.5 663.6 671.2 638.5 639.0 651.4
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.37 -0.41 0.10 0.95 0.89 1.86 2.52 2.46 3.00 2.84 2.54 -0.51 0.07 1.94
SERVICES...................... 759.4 773.3 778.8 771.7 768.4 779.3 789.8 802.8 795.7 807.5 815.5 754.9 770.8 785.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.78 2.36 2.10 1.22 1.19 0.78 1.42 4.03 3.55 3.62 3.25 1.63 2.11 1.86
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 132.5 132.4 133.4 133.6 132.6 133.7 133.9 133.3 132.7 134.3 135.6 132.3 133.0 133.4
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.45 0.13 0.04 0.33 0.04 1.01 0.45 -0.18 0.10 0.44 1.22 1.05 0.48 0.33
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 173.9 174.0 172.8 173.1 172.6 175.3 174.8 174.8 168.7 177.9 178.1 179.8 173.4 174.4
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.10 -3.08 -4.11 -3.98 -0.73 0.73 1.18 1.02 -2.25 1.49 1.89 0.77 -3.57 0.55
GOVERNMENT.................... 407.3 405.6 391.0 409.5 407.1 405.0 392.9 412.8 405.5 406.6 390.2 402.2 403.3 404.4
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.63 0.41 -0.06 0.12 -0.07 -0.15 0.49 0.80 -0.39 0.40 -0.67 0.81 0.28 0.27
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 50.5 50.7 50.3 49.9 50.5 51.3 50.6 50.2 50.8 51.6 50.9 51.1 50.4 50.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.07 -2.37 -1.57 -0.08 -0.03 1.10 0.52 0.61 0.65 0.61 0.62 -4.66 -1.54 0.55
STATE AND LOCAL............. 356.8 354.9 340.6 359.6 356.6 353.7 342.3 362.6 354.6 355.0 339.3 351.1 353.0 353.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.02 0.82 0.17 0.15 -0.07 -0.33 0.48 0.83 -0.54 0.37 -0.87 1.66 0.54 0.23
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 6: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF JOBS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS............. 274.3 273.6 272.0 271.6 271.1 275.4 274.9 275.6 274.9 279.1 279.1 281.3 272.9 274.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.95 -3.36 -2.12 -1.53 -1.18 0.65 1.06 1.49 1.41 1.37 1.54 -6.49 -3.01 0.50
LUMBER AND WOOD............... 22.1 22.2 22.8 22.7 22.4 22.9 23.0 22.9 22.7 23.0 23.4 22.1 22.4 22.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.30 0.00 2.70 2.49 1.22 3.20 1.15 1.21 1.35 0.34 1.62 -7.23 1.22 1.69
FURNITURE AND FIXTURES........ 22.6 22.8 22.4 22.6 22.1 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.7 23.4 23.0 23.6 22.6 22.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -10.78 -5.14 -0.98 -0.10 -2.21 -0.44 1.52 1.62 2.52 3.17 1.11 -12.35 -4.45 0.12
STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.......... 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.61 -2.40 -2.30 -1.98 -0.82 0.57 0.66 1.10 1.80 2.32 2.09 -1.77 -2.08 0.38
PRIMARY METALS................ 15.3 14.5 14.1 13.8 13.5 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.8 14.9 14.9 16.4 14.4 14.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -11.07 -11.92 -12.34 -12.86 -11.47 0.72 1.58 2.33 1.92 1.71 3.48 -7.81 -12.03 -1.91
FABRICATED METALS............. 43.9 43.9 43.2 43.7 43.7 44.1 44.4 44.7 44.7 44.8 45.3 44.9 43.7 44.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.50 -2.51 -3.27 -0.79 -0.55 0.30 2.70 2.31 2.34 1.64 2.15 -5.49 -2.79 1.18
NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY....... 48.3 47.9 46.4 45.7 46.5 47.3 45.9 45.6 46.2 47.3 45.7 49.3 47.1 46.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.86 -4.64 -4.01 -4.86 -3.89 -1.15 -1.08 -0.10 -0.50 -0.16 -0.45 -3.91 -4.60 -1.58
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.......... 35.0 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.0 35.4 35.4 35.6 35.5 36.1 35.9 36.2 35.0 35.4
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -6.75 -3.85 -2.02 -1.10 0.00 1.28 1.43 1.69 1.46 1.91 1.36 -10.13 -3.48 1.10
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT...... 49.9 50.2 51.0 51.3 50.6 50.8 51.7 52.2 51.3 51.5 52.6 51.1 50.6 51.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.86 -1.76 0.35 1.80 1.42 1.29 1.28 1.59 1.48 1.44 1.70 -6.34 -0.89 1.39
INSTRUMENTS................... 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.1 11.3 11.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.50 1.50 2.53 1.43 1.61 2.03 1.81 1.87 1.90 1.90 1.92 2.45 1.74 1.83
MISCELLANEOUS................. 9.7 9.7 9.4 9.1 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.4 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.29 -3.01 -2.45 -3.92 1.01 0.63 -0.79 3.51 1.40 0.81 4.75 -8.20 -3.42 1.07
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 7: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF JOBS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.......... 192.8 192.8 189.0 189.5 188.3 187.0 184.0 185.1 183.6 183.3 181.5 197.1 191.0 186.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.71 -2.00 -3.87 -2.83 -2.32 -3.01 -2.64 -2.30 -2.51 -1.96 -1.38 -4.27 -3.10 -2.57
FOOD.......................... 41.0 41.0 41.3 41.3 40.9 41.3 41.4 41.4 41.1 41.4 41.5 40.8 41.1 41.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.59 1.15 -0.12 -0.27 -0.13 0.72 0.27 0.35 0.38 0.35 0.36 2.77 0.82 0.30
TOBACCO....................... 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.71 10.00 9.68 9.68 6.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.85 5.45 1.56
TEXTILES...................... 12.9 12.7 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.0 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.4 13.8 12.4 11.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -10.02 -8.39 -10.91 -10.09 -11.48 -13.52 -6.94 -4.30 -4.05 -3.91 -8.48 -11.47 -9.85 -9.18
APPAREL....................... 17.3 17.1 16.5 16.2 15.6 15.6 15.0 14.7 14.0 14.7 12.8 18.9 16.8 15.2
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -14.89 -10.47 -9.96 -9.47 -10.00 -8.67 -9.34 -9.30 -10.23 -5.64 -14.61 -13.94 -11.30 -9.33
PAPER......................... 22.2 22.6 22.8 22.0 22.4 22.2 22.2 21.7 22.2 22.0 22.5 22.0 22.4 22.1
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.68 3.35 2.51 -0.83 1.10 -1.78 -2.66 -1.62 -1.00 -0.95 1.65 0.76 1.67 -1.25
PRINTING AND PUBLISHING....... 34.8 34.6 34.9 35.0 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.7 34.3 34.2 34.7 36.1 34.8 34.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.26 -3.80 -3.34 -1.77 -0.51 -0.48 -0.31 -0.90 -0.82 -0.67 -0.39 -4.05 -3.55 -0.55
CHEMICALS..................... 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.3 25.3 24.8 24.8 23.7 25.0 27.6 26.8 25.4
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.66 -1.22 -2.70 -3.60 -3.93 -6.26 -4.56 -5.73 -5.16 -6.39 -1.10 -3.33 -2.80 -5.12
PETROLEUM REFINING............ 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 9.09 -7.69 -5.78 -3.34 -0.57 4.81 5.11 4.77 4.23 3.90 -0.32 2.76 -2.36 3.54
RUBBER AND PLASTICS........... 33.2 33.4 30.7 32.7 33.1 32.7 29.8 32.3 32.2 32.3 30.3 33.5 32.5 32.0
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.54 0.10 -7.99 -1.25 -0.46 -2.31 -2.75 -1.15 -2.78 -1.13 1.62 -5.35 -2.92 -1.65
LEATHER....................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.8
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -23.29 -13.64 -9.89 -11.45 -6.55 4.08 -0.13 1.04 -6.27 -6.21 1.97 -27.58 -14.95 -0.40
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 8: TENNESSEE NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR
THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 2718.8 2703.7 2699.4 2704.1 2724.5 2721.4 2731.4 2758.0 2769.7 2777.5 2781.2 2712.5 2706.5 2733.8
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.93 -2.21 -0.62 0.69 3.05 -0.45 1.48 3.95 1.71 1.13 0.54 -0.61 -0.22 1.01
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.35 -0.21 -0.27 -0.06 0.21 0.66 1.18 1.99 1.66 2.06 1.82 -0.61 -0.22 1.01
MINING........................ 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -21.87 0.00 -1.51 -1.48 -1.45 -1.42 -1.40 -1.37 -1.34 -1.31 -1.29 -3.04 -8.40 -1.36
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -7.56 -9.84 -9.44 -6.69 -1.11 -1.47 -1.44 -1.41 -1.38 -1.35 -1.33 -3.04 -8.40 -1.36
CONSTRUCTION.................. 122.4 118.7 117.8 119.2 122.5 120.7 120.3 121.9 126.8 125.5 124.3 121.2 119.5 121.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 8.24 -11.55 -3.18 4.94 11.45 -5.59 -1.42 5.32 17.37 -4.25 -3.69 -3.05 -1.40 1.51
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.97 -2.06 -1.88 -0.69 0.04 1.68 2.14 2.23 3.57 3.93 3.33 -3.05 -1.40 1.51
MANUFACTURING................. 468.0 466.0 461.2 460.3 460.3 462.0 459.1 460.0 459.4 462.1 460.8 478.7 463.9 460.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.72 -1.73 -4.04 -0.77 0.00 1.46 -2.47 0.79 -0.54 2.36 -1.11 -5.57 -3.10 -0.76
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -4.68 -2.74 -2.85 -2.07 -1.65 -0.86 -0.46 -0.07 -0.20 0.02 0.37 -5.57 -3.10 -0.76
DURABLE GOODS............... 274.5 273.0 272.5 271.2 271.3 274.8 275.4 275.3 275.1 278.6 279.6 281.3 272.8 274.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.35 -2.12 -0.74 -1.90 0.09 5.30 0.87 -0.21 -0.22 5.14 1.54 -6.50 -3.03 0.50
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -5.15 -3.20 -2.13 -1.53 -1.17 0.65 1.05 1.49 1.41 1.37 1.54 -6.50 -3.03 0.50
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 193.5 193.0 188.7 189.1 189.0 187.2 183.7 184.8 184.3 183.5 181.2 197.4 191.1 186.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -2.24 -1.17 -8.56 0.88 -0.13 -3.87 -7.22 2.31 -1.01 -1.68 -5.02 -4.21 -3.20 -2.56
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -4.00 -2.08 -3.87 -2.84 -2.32 -2.99 -2.64 -2.29 -2.51 -1.96 -1.38 -4.21 -3.20 -2.56
TRADE......................... 639.7 635.3 635.9 643.8 645.4 647.1 652.0 659.6 664.8 665.5 668.5 638.2 638.7 651.0
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.28 -2.76 0.42 5.01 1.06 1.02 3.06 4.76 3.19 0.40 1.87 -0.57 0.07 1.93
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.34 -0.40 0.10 0.95 0.89 1.86 2.52 2.46 3.00 2.84 2.54 -0.57 0.07 1.93
SERVICES...................... 772.5 769.4 772.3 768.6 781.7 775.4 783.2 799.5 809.5 803.5 808.7 755.4 770.7 785.0
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 7.14 -1.60 1.50 -1.90 7.00 -3.18 4.09 8.60 5.07 -2.93 2.61 1.71 2.03 1.85
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.44 2.34 2.10 1.22 1.19 0.78 1.42 4.03 3.55 3.62 3.25 1.71 2.03 1.85
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 133.4 132.2 132.7 133.5 133.5 133.5 133.3 133.2 133.6 134.1 134.9 132.3 132.9 133.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.21 -3.74 1.67 2.29 0.05 0.06 -0.58 -0.26 1.19 1.41 2.56 1.05 0.47 0.33
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.47 0.05 0.04 0.33 0.04 1.01 0.45 -0.18 0.10 0.44 1.22 1.05 0.47 0.33
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 175.4 173.6 172.2 172.7 174.1 174.8 174.2 174.4 170.2 177.4 177.5 180.2 173.5 174.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -9.43 -4.19 -3.09 1.07 3.46 1.57 -1.32 0.44 -9.32 18.05 0.24 0.98 -3.73 0.54
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.29 -3.52 -4.11 -3.98 -0.73 0.73 1.18 1.02 -2.25 1.49 1.89 0.98 -3.73 0.54
GOVERNMENT.................... 403.6 404.9 403.6 402.5 403.3 404.2 405.6 405.7 401.7 405.9 402.9 402.5 403.6 404.7
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.60 1.29 -1.20 -1.17 0.83 0.95 1.36 0.07 -3.86 4.20 -2.94 0.84 0.29 0.27
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.67 0.41 -0.05 0.12 -0.07 -0.15 0.49 0.80 -0.39 0.40 -0.68 0.84 0.29 0.27
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.4 50.5 50.5 50.6 50.7 50.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 50.3 50.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.26 -3.65 2.93 0.24 0.46 0.78 0.58 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.61 -4.69 -1.54 0.55
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.82 -2.66 -1.57 -0.08 -0.03 1.10 0.52 0.61 0.65 0.61 0.62 -4.69 -1.54 0.55
STATE AND LOCAL............. 353.1 354.9 353.3 352.1 352.8 353.7 355.0 355.0 350.9 355.0 351.9 351.4 353.3 354.1
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.79 2.02 -1.77 -1.38 0.88 0.98 1.48 -0.01 -4.49 4.73 -3.44 1.70 0.55 0.23
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.04 0.86 0.17 0.15 -0.07 -0.33 0.48 0.83 -0.54 0.37 -0.87 1.70 0.55 0.23
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 9: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS............. 274.5 273.0 272.5 271.2 271.3 274.8 275.4 275.3 275.1 278.6 279.6 281.3 272.8 274.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -1.35 -2.12 -0.74 -1.90 0.09 5.30 0.87 -0.21 -0.22 5.14 1.54 -6.50 -3.03 0.50
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.15 -3.20 -2.13 -1.53 -1.17 0.65 1.05 1.49 1.41 1.37 1.54 -6.50 -3.03 0.50
LUMBER AND WOOD............... 22.3 22.2 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.3 22.2 22.4 22.8
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 5.56 -2.37 7.95 -0.81 0.42 5.47 -0.38 -0.58 1.01 1.33 4.80 -7.19 1.18 1.69
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.59 0.15 2.70 2.49 1.22 3.20 1.15 1.21 1.35 0.34 1.62 -7.19 1.18 1.69
FURNITURE AND FIXTURES........ 22.7 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.2 22.5 23.0 22.9 22.7 23.2 23.3 23.7 22.6 22.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.39 -1.75 1.94 -2.87 -5.98 5.52 10.22 -2.49 -2.60 8.23 1.66 -12.21 -4.52 0.12
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -10.88 -5.31 -0.98 -0.10 -2.21 -0.44 1.52 1.62 2.52 3.17 1.11 -12.21 -4.52 0.12
STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.......... 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.2 16.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -4.74 -4.80 1.26 0.52 -0.14 0.64 1.64 2.26 2.66 2.72 0.75 -1.97 -2.08 0.38
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.80 -2.22 -2.30 -1.98 -0.82 0.57 0.66 1.10 1.80 2.32 2.09 -1.97 -2.08 0.38
PRIMARY METALS................ 15.2 14.5 14.2 13.8 13.5 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.7 14.9 14.9 16.4 14.4 14.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -13.59 -17.15 -8.82 -11.66 -7.96 38.83 -5.70 -9.00 -9.45 37.70 1.05 -7.85 -12.12 -1.90
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -11.26 -12.10 -12.34 -12.86 -11.47 0.72 1.58 2.33 1.92 1.71 3.48 -7.85 -12.12 -1.90
FABRICATED METALS............. 43.9 44.0 43.2 43.6 43.7 44.1 44.4 44.6 44.7 44.9 45.3 45.0 43.7 44.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 0.30 0.61 -7.03 3.27 1.28 4.08 2.21 1.71 1.39 1.25 4.28 -5.48 -2.84 1.18
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.77 -2.44 -3.27 -0.79 -0.55 0.30 2.70 2.31 2.34 1.64 2.15 -5.48 -2.84 1.18
NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY....... 47.8 47.7 47.2 45.8 45.9 47.2 46.7 45.7 45.7 47.1 46.5 49.4 47.1 46.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.74 -0.83 -3.90 -11.60 1.29 10.96 -3.62 -8.06 -0.32 12.51 -4.73 -3.66 -4.53 -1.57
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.78 -4.47 -4.01 -4.86 -3.89 -1.15 -1.08 -0.10 -0.50 -0.16 -0.45 -3.66 -4.53 -1.57
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.......... 35.2 34.8 34.8 34.9 35.2 35.2 35.3 35.5 35.7 35.9 35.8 36.3 34.9 35.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -1.87 -4.11 -0.19 1.88 2.55 0.91 0.39 2.93 1.63 2.69 -1.76 -10.04 -3.75 1.10
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -7.21 -4.40 -2.02 -1.10 0.00 1.28 1.43 1.69 1.46 1.91 1.36 -10.04 -3.75 1.10
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT...... 50.0 50.2 50.8 51.3 50.7 50.8 51.5 52.1 51.5 51.6 52.4 50.9 50.6 51.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.60 1.29 5.27 3.41 -4.05 0.76 5.23 4.67 -4.45 0.61 6.32 -6.66 -0.74 1.39
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.10 -0.91 0.35 1.80 1.42 1.29 1.28 1.59 1.48 1.44 1.70 -6.66 -0.74 1.39
INSTRUMENTS................... 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.1 11.3 11.5
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 1.10 0.23 2.75 1.65 1.80 1.93 1.86 1.90 1.91 1.92 1.94 2.10 1.89 1.83
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.22 2.39 2.53 1.43 1.61 2.03 1.81 1.87 1.90 1.90 1.92 2.10 1.89 1.83
MISCELLANEOUS................. 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.5 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 7.18 -4.06 -8.17 -9.74 30.93 -5.51 -13.26 6.98 20.55 -7.69 1.14 -8.27 -3.42 1.07
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.28 -3.03 -2.45 -3.92 1.01 0.63 -0.79 3.51 1.40 0.81 4.75 -8.27 -3.42 1.07
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 10: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.......... 193.5 193.0 188.7 189.1 189.0 187.2 183.7 184.8 184.3 183.5 181.2 197.4 191.1 186.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.24 -1.17 -8.56 0.88 -0.13 -3.87 -7.22 2.31 -1.01 -1.68 -5.02 -4.21 -3.20 -2.56
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.00 -2.08 -3.87 -2.84 -2.32 -2.99 -2.64 -2.29 -2.51 -1.96 -1.38 -4.21 -3.20 -2.56
FOOD.......................... 41.3 41.0 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.3 41.3 41.3 41.4 41.4 41.4 40.9 41.2 41.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -0.32 -2.88 2.15 0.04 0.24 0.48 0.32 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.35 3.02 0.66 0.30
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.23 0.82 -0.12 -0.27 -0.13 0.72 0.27 0.35 0.38 0.35 0.36 3.02 0.66 0.30
TOBACCO....................... 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 13.54 27.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.52 8.94 1.49
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 6.67 9.68 9.68 9.68 6.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.52 8.94 1.49
TEXTILES...................... 12.9 12.7 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.0 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.4 13.8 12.4 11.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -6.90 -7.02 -14.70 -11.50 -12.50 -15.33 14.38 -1.03 -11.56 -14.84 -5.88 -11.47 -9.73 -9.18
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -9.77 -8.19 -10.91 -10.09 -11.48 -13.52 -6.94 -4.30 -4.05 -3.91 -8.48 -11.47 -9.73 -9.18
APPAREL....................... 17.4 17.0 16.5 16.1 15.7 15.5 15.0 14.6 14.1 14.6 12.8 18.9 16.8 15.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -7.99 -9.58 -10.45 -9.86 -10.11 -4.14 -13.02 -9.72 -13.72 16.98 -41.66 -13.94 -11.42 -9.33
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -14.82 -10.99 -9.96 -9.47 -10.00 -8.67 -9.34 -9.30 -10.23 -5.64 -14.61 -13.94 -11.42 -9.33
PAPER......................... 22.4 22.8 22.5 22.0 22.7 22.4 21.9 21.7 22.5 22.2 22.3 22.1 22.4 22.2
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.65 6.70 -4.86 -8.07 11.96 -4.94 -8.24 -4.06 14.81 -4.76 1.76 0.95 1.58 -1.24
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.36 3.32 2.51 -0.83 1.10 -1.78 -2.66 -1.62 -1.00 -0.95 1.65 0.95 1.58 -1.24
PRINTING AND PUBLISHING....... 34.8 34.8 34.9 34.9 34.6 34.6 34.8 34.6 34.3 34.4 34.6 36.2 34.8 34.7
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.35 0.00 0.72 0.86 -3.56 0.12 1.43 -1.53 -3.22 0.69 2.60 -4.00 -3.62 -0.55
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.61 -3.69 -3.34 -1.77 -0.51 -0.48 -0.31 -0.90 -0.82 -0.67 -0.39 -4.00 -3.62 -0.55
CHEMICALS..................... 27.2 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.4 25.3 24.8 24.7 23.7 25.0 27.6 26.8 25.4
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.31 -1.54 -7.82 -2.58 -3.66 -10.76 -0.93 -7.26 -1.33 -15.29 23.43 -3.33 -3.00 -5.12
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.33 -1.35 -2.70 -3.60 -3.93 -6.26 -4.56 -5.73 -5.16 -6.39 -1.10 -3.33 -3.00 -5.12
PETROLEUM REFINING............ 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -18.99 -10.38 8.54 10.79 -9.32 10.65 9.79 9.35 -11.16 9.26 -6.98 2.76 -1.04 3.52
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 5.71 0.00 -5.78 -3.34 -0.57 4.81 5.11 4.77 4.23 3.90 -0.32 2.76 -1.04 3.52
RUBBER AND PLASTICS........... 33.3 33.4 30.7 32.5 33.2 32.7 29.8 32.2 32.2 32.3 30.3 33.5 32.5 32.0
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 4.51 1.34 -29.31 27.03 7.89 -6.01 -30.56 35.61 0.95 0.52 -22.52 -5.33 -3.12 -1.65
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.14 -0.08 -7.99 -1.25 -0.46 -2.31 -2.75 -1.15 -2.78 -1.13 1.62 -5.33 -3.12 -1.65
LEATHER....................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.8
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -7.04 2.14 -8.40 -29.30 15.28 57.17 -22.33 -25.94 -14.62 57.55 8.51 -27.76 -14.82 -0.42
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -22.78 -13.55 -9.89 -11.45 -6.55 4.08 -0.13 1.04 -6.27 -6.21 1.97 -27.76 -14.82 -0.42
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 11: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
1996 DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 29204 28918 29051 28384 29114 29380 29179 28489 29533 29374 29434 28941 28889 29041
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.22 -0.04 -0.37 -0.08 -0.31 1.60 0.44 0.37 1.44 -0.02 0.87 0.35 -0.18 0.52
MINING........................ 45901 44096 43933 44798 45734 44669 44513 45431 46497 45463 45341 41797 44682 45087
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 8.55 7.15 12.19 0.47 -0.36 1.30 1.32 1.41 1.67 1.78 1.86 2.02 6.90 0.90
CONSTRUCTION.................. 33661 31564 31032 31922 34103 31955 31361 32237 34501 32343 31765 32291 32045 32414
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.38 -1.88 -0.33 1.73 1.31 1.24 1.06 0.99 1.17 1.21 1.29 -1.76 -0.76 1.15
MANUFACTURING................. 32747 33196 33497 32471 32759 33425 33698 32651 33014 33500 33997 33147 32978 33133
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.77 -0.53 0.79 0.54 0.04 0.69 0.60 0.56 0.78 0.23 0.89 -1.25 -0.51 0.47
DURABLE GOODS............... 32620 33128 33833 32810 33053 33547 34196 33172 33519 33686 34688 33051 33098 33492
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.57 -0.68 2.06 1.84 1.33 1.27 1.07 1.10 1.41 0.41 1.44 -2.69 0.14 1.19
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 32927 33293 33015 31984 32337 33244 32955 31877 32258 33217 32936 33284 32805 32603
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.07 -0.32 -1.02 -1.32 -1.79 -0.15 -0.18 -0.34 -0.24 -0.08 -0.06 0.91 -1.44 -0.61
TRADE......................... 22356 21820 22018 21551 21981 22328 22166 21859 22753 22449 21619 21866 21936 22084
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.07 -0.45 0.83 1.01 -1.68 2.33 0.67 1.43 3.51 0.54 -2.47 -1.48 0.32 0.67
SERVICES...................... 28718 28065 27686 27364 28674 29055 27936 27604 29494 28954 29542 28222 27958 28317
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.03 0.82 -2.52 -2.06 -0.15 3.53 0.90 0.88 2.86 -0.35 5.75 2.67 -0.93 1.28
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 42261 42672 42057 43194 43436 43014 42534 42803 43295 43106 39719 41986 42546 42947
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.72 -1.35 -0.17 3.31 2.78 0.80 1.13 -0.90 -0.32 0.21 -6.62 2.31 1.33 0.94
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 35536 36583 36047 35044 35481 36519 35934 34807 35414 36488 35935 35471 35803 35685
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.66 2.64 1.59 0.17 -0.16 -0.18 -0.31 -0.68 -0.19 -0.08 0.00 -2.01 0.93 -0.33
GOVERNMENT.................... 28237 28011 29723 27827 28006 28122 29690 27804 28016 28101 29804 28182 28449 28406
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.79 0.20 0.52 0.32 -0.82 0.40 -0.11 -0.08 0.04 -0.07 0.38 2.89 0.95 -0.15
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 48669 45500 46878 47184 47078 46411 47220 47765 47681 47063 47853 46762 47058 47119
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.63 -2.38 0.02 0.27 -3.27 2.00 0.73 1.23 1.28 1.40 1.34 8.79 0.63 0.13
STATE AND LOCAL............. 25345 25512 27189 25141 25305 25472 27099 25041 25198 25347 27096 25477 25797 25729
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.66 1.23 0.82 0.36 -0.16 -0.16 -0.33 -0.40 -0.42 -0.49 -0.01 1.98 1.25 -0.26
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 12: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 28866 28973 29064 28642 28775 29436 29194 28748 29183 29431 29454 28928 28886 29038
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.87 1.50 1.25 -5.68 1.87 9.52 -3.25 -5.97 6.19 3.43 0.32 0.32 -0.15 0.53
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.14 0.00 -0.37 -0.07 -0.31 1.60 0.45 0.37 1.42 -0.02 0.89 0.32 -0.15 0.53
MINING........................ 45067 44497 44660 44798 44902 45075 45249 45431 45652 45876 46091 41865 44755 45164
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.37 -4.96 1.47 1.25 0.93 1.55 1.55 1.62 1.96 1.98 1.88 1.93 6.90 0.91
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 8.40 7.24 12.19 0.47 -0.36 1.30 1.32 1.41 1.67 1.78 1.86 1.93 6.90 0.91
CONSTRUCTION.................. 31791 31910 32049 32153 32209 32305 32389 32470 32585 32697 32806 32267 31976 32343
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.37 1.50 1.76 1.30 0.70 1.20 1.04 1.01 1.42 1.39 1.34 -1.72 -0.90 1.15
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -3.29 -1.61 -0.33 1.73 1.31 1.24 1.06 0.99 1.17 1.21 1.29 -1.72 -0.90 1.15
MANUFACTURING................. 32681 33222 33481 32521 32691 33448 33682 32702 32945 33524 33983 33129 32976 33131
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.21 6.78 3.16 -10.99 2.11 9.59 2.83 -11.15 3.01 7.22 5.58 -1.26 -0.46 0.47
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.54 -0.59 0.80 0.54 0.03 0.68 0.60 0.55 0.78 0.23 0.89 -1.26 -0.46 0.47
DURABLE GOODS............... 32596 33196 33764 32851 33025 33616 34128 33213 33489 33755 34622 33050 33102 33495
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.27 7.57 7.02 -10.39 2.13 7.36 6.24 -10.31 3.37 3.22 10.67 -2.67 0.16 1.19
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.37 -0.84 2.08 1.84 1.31 1.26 1.08 1.10 1.41 0.42 1.44 -2.67 0.16 1.19
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 32802 33259 33073 32048 32212 33202 33014 31940 32132 33174 32997 33240 32796 32592
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.13 5.69 -2.21 -11.83 2.06 12.88 -2.26 -12.38 2.43 13.61 -2.11 0.84 -1.34 -0.62
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.78 -0.24 -1.02 -1.30 -1.80 -0.17 -0.18 -0.34 -0.25 -0.09 -0.05 0.84 -1.34 -0.62
TRADE......................... 21943 21761 22106 21963 21574 22267 22254 22277 22333 22388 21706 21873 21943 22093
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.72 -3.28 6.49 -2.55 -6.89 13.48 -0.23 0.41 1.00 1.00 -11.65 -1.42 0.32 0.68
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.10 -0.46 0.83 1.01 -1.68 2.33 0.67 1.43 3.51 0.54 -2.47 -1.42 0.32 0.68
SERVICES...................... 28230 28206 27919 27475 28187 29201 28171 27716 28993 29099 29791 28199 27958 28319
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.54 -0.34 -4.01 -6.21 10.77 15.18 -13.38 -6.30 19.73 1.48 9.86 2.60 -0.86 1.29
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.35 0.84 -2.52 -2.06 -0.15 3.53 0.90 0.88 2.86 -0.35 5.75 2.60 -0.86 1.29
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 41976 42737 42258 43227 43143 43079 42737 42836 43003 43171 39909 41985 42549 42949
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.30 7.45 -4.41 9.49 -0.77 -0.59 -3.14 0.93 1.57 1.58 -26.97 2.30 1.34 0.94
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.70 -1.28 -0.17 3.31 2.78 0.80 1.13 -0.90 -0.32 0.21 -6.62 2.30 1.34 0.94
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 35219 36675 36161 35122 35164 36610 36048 34884 35098 36579 36048 35403 35794 35677
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.78 17.59 -5.49 -11.01 0.48 17.50 -6.01 -12.30 2.47 17.98 -5.68 -2.21 1.10 -0.33
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.47 3.10 1.59 0.17 -0.16 -0.18 -0.31 -0.68 -0.19 -0.08 0.00 -2.21 1.10 -0.33
GOVERNMENT.................... 28500 28061 28789 28314 28267 28174 28757 28291 28277 28153 28869 28152 28416 28372
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.99 -6.02 10.78 -6.43 -0.66 -1.32 8.54 -6.33 -0.20 -1.74 10.57 2.84 0.94 -0.15
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.74 0.20 0.52 0.32 -0.82 0.40 -0.11 -0.08 0.03 -0.07 0.39 2.84 0.94 -0.15
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 48701 46137 46847 46716 47109 47061 47189 47291 47713 47722 47822 46804 47100 47163
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 19.38 -19.46 6.30 -1.11 3.41 -0.41 1.09 0.87 3.61 0.08 0.84 8.86 0.63 0.13
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.37 -2.10 0.02 0.27 -3.27 2.00 0.73 1.23 1.28 1.40 1.34 8.86 0.63 0.13
STATE AND LOCAL............. 25613 25515 26215 25680 25573 25474 26129 25577 25465 25349 26126 25439 25756 25688
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.40 -1.53 11.43 -7.91 -1.66 -1.53 10.68 -8.18 -1.75 -1.80 12.82 1.92 1.24 -0.26
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.64 1.20 0.82 0.36 -0.16 -0.16 -0.33 -0.40 -0.42 -0.49 -0.01 1.92 1.24 -0.26
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 13: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 32165 32052 32377 31841 32919 33438 33436 32871 34279 34300 34579 31707 32109 33166
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.68 1.06 1.29 2.05 2.35 4.32 3.27 3.23 4.13 2.58 3.42 2.38 1.27 3.29
MINING........................ 50556 48876 48964 50255 51711 50837 51007 52418 53970 53087 53267 45794 49663 51493
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 9.54 8.32 14.06 2.61 2.29 4.01 4.17 4.30 4.37 4.42 4.43 4.09 8.45 3.69
CONSTRUCTION.................. 37074 34986 34586 35810 38560 36368 35937 37195 40045 37767 37318 35375 35614 37015
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.49 -0.80 1.33 3.90 4.01 3.95 3.91 3.87 3.85 3.84 3.84 0.23 0.67 3.93
MANUFACTURING................. 36067 36794 37333 36426 37041 38040 38615 37673 38319 39118 39940 36315 36655 37842
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.89 0.56 2.47 2.68 2.70 3.39 3.43 3.42 3.45 2.83 3.43 0.74 0.94 3.24
DURABLE GOODS............... 35928 36719 37706 36807 37372 38180 39185 38273 38905 39335 40751 36210 36790 38253
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.69 0.41 3.77 4.01 4.02 3.98 3.92 3.98 4.10 3.03 4.00 -0.72 1.60 3.98
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 36266 36902 36795 35880 36563 37835 37763 36779 37441 38787 38693 36465 36461 37235
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.19 0.77 0.63 0.79 0.82 2.53 2.63 2.51 2.40 2.52 2.46 2.94 -0.01 2.12
TRADE......................... 24623 24186 24539 24176 24854 25412 25400 25221 26410 26214 25398 23956 24381 25222
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.83 0.64 2.51 3.16 0.94 5.07 3.51 4.32 6.26 3.16 -0.01 0.52 1.77 3.45
SERVICES...................... 31630 31108 30856 30697 32422 33067 32012 31849 34234 33809 34707 30920 31073 32338
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.94 1.92 -0.89 0.03 2.50 6.30 3.75 3.76 5.59 2.24 8.42 4.76 0.49 4.07
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 46547 47298 46873 48455 49113 48954 48739 49387 50253 50335 46662 46002 47293 49048
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.66 -0.27 1.50 5.51 5.51 3.50 3.98 1.92 2.32 2.82 -4.26 4.37 2.81 3.71
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 39139 40549 40175 39312 40118 41562 41177 40160 41106 42607 42216 38862 39794 40754
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.24 3.76 3.28 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.16 2.46 2.51 2.52 -0.03 2.40 2.41
GOVERNMENT.................... 31100 31047 33126 31216 31666 32006 34022 32080 32518 32814 35014 30878 31622 32444
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.73 1.30 2.20 2.46 1.82 3.09 2.70 2.77 2.69 2.52 2.91 4.97 2.41 2.60
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 53604 50432 52245 52931 53231 52821 54109 55111 55344 54956 56218 51234 52303 53818
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.58 -1.32 1.69 2.40 -0.69 4.74 3.57 4.12 3.97 4.04 3.90 10.96 2.09 2.90
STATE AND LOCAL............. 27915 28278 30302 28204 28613 28990 31053 28892 29247 29598 31833 27914 28675 29387
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.59 2.34 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.52 2.48 2.44 2.22 2.10 2.51 4.04 2.72 2.48
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 14: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 31793 32114 32391 32131 32536 33502 33453 33170 33873 34366 34603 31694 32107 33165
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.00 4.11 3.50 -3.18 5.14 12.41 -0.58 -3.35 8.75 5.95 2.79 2.35 1.30 3.30
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.77 1.10 1.29 2.06 2.34 4.32 3.28 3.23 4.11 2.58 3.44 2.35 1.30 3.30
MINING........................ 49636 49321 49773 50255 50771 51299 51850 52418 52988 53569 54147 45870 49746 51585
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.52 -2.52 3.72 3.93 4.17 4.23 4.36 4.45 4.42 4.46 4.39 3.99 8.45 3.70
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 9.38 8.42 14.06 2.61 2.29 4.01 4.17 4.30 4.37 4.42 4.43 3.99 8.45 3.70
CONSTRUCTION.................. 35015 35369 35719 36069 36418 36767 37114 37464 37821 38180 38540 35351 35543 36941
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.50 4.10 4.02 3.98 3.93 3.88 3.84 3.82 3.87 3.85 3.83 0.26 0.54 3.93
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.41 -0.54 1.33 3.90 4.01 3.95 3.91 3.87 3.85 3.84 3.84 0.26 0.54 3.93
MANUFACTURING................. 35995 36823 37315 36482 36964 38068 38597 37731 38239 39146 39923 36296 36654 37840
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.35 9.53 5.45 -8.63 5.38 12.49 5.68 -8.67 5.50 9.83 8.17 0.73 0.99 3.24
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.65 0.50 2.48 2.68 2.69 3.38 3.44 3.42 3.45 2.83 3.44 0.73 0.99 3.24
DURABLE GOODS............... 35902 36795 37630 36852 37341 38258 39108 38321 38871 39416 40674 36210 36795 38257
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.41 10.33 9.39 -8.02 5.41 10.19 9.18 -7.81 5.87 5.73 13.38 -0.71 1.61 3.97
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.49 0.25 3.78 4.01 4.01 3.98 3.93 3.99 4.10 3.03 4.00 -0.71 1.61 3.97
NONDURABLE GOODS............ 36128 36864 36860 35952 36422 37788 37830 36853 37296 38737 38765 36418 36451 37223
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.27 8.40 -0.04 -9.49 5.34 15.86 0.45 -9.94 4.90 16.37 0.29 2.87 0.09 2.12
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.89 0.86 0.63 0.80 0.81 2.51 2.63 2.51 2.40 2.51 2.47 2.87 0.09 2.12
TRADE......................... 24168 24120 24637 24638 24394 25343 25501 25703 25921 26143 25500 23965 24391 25235
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.86 -0.79 8.85 0.02 -3.90 16.48 2.53 3.20 3.44 3.46 -9.48 0.57 1.78 3.46
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.81 0.63 2.51 3.16 0.94 5.07 3.51 4.32 6.26 3.16 -0.01 0.57 1.78 3.46
SERVICES...................... 31093 31264 31116 30822 31871 33234 32281 31979 33652 33979 34999 30895 31074 32341
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.67 2.22 -1.88 -3.73 14.33 18.23 -10.98 -3.69 22.62 3.95 12.55 4.67 0.58 4.08
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.26 1.94 -0.89 0.03 2.50 6.30 3.75 3.76 5.59 2.24 8.42 4.67 0.58 4.08
FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 46233 47370 47096 48492 48782 49028 48972 49424 49914 50411 46885 46002 47298 49051
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.41 10.20 -2.29 12.39 2.41 2.04 -0.46 3.74 4.02 4.05 -25.18 4.36 2.82 3.71
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.64 -0.20 1.50 5.51 5.51 3.50 3.98 1.92 2.32 2.82 -4.26 4.36 2.82 3.71
TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 38790 40650 40301 39399 39760 41666 41307 40250 40738 42714 42349 38789 39785 40746
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.90 20.61 -3.39 -8.66 3.71 20.60 -3.40 -9.85 4.95 20.85 -3.37 -0.24 2.57 2.41
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.43 4.23 3.28 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.16 2.46 2.51 2.52 -0.24 2.57 2.41
GOVERNMENT.................... 31390 31103 32085 31763 31962 32064 32953 32642 32821 32874 33915 30844 31585 32405
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.13 -3.61 13.24 -3.96 2.53 1.29 11.55 -3.72 2.21 0.65 13.28 4.92 2.40 2.60
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.68 1.30 2.19 2.46 1.82 3.09 2.70 2.77 2.69 2.52 2.92 4.92 2.40 2.60
FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 53639 51138 52211 52406 53267 53560 54074 54565 55380 55725 56182 51280 52349 53866
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 20.69 -17.39 8.66 1.50 6.73 2.22 3.89 3.68 6.11 2.52 3.32 11.05 2.08 2.90
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.31 -1.03 1.69 2.40 -0.69 4.74 3.57 4.12 3.97 4.04 3.90 11.05 2.08 2.90
STATE AND LOCAL............. 28210 28280 29216 28808 28915 28992 29941 29511 29557 29600 30692 27873 28629 29340
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.50 1.00 13.91 -5.47 1.50 1.07 13.74 -5.62 0.62 0.59 15.59 3.98 2.71 2.48
% CHG SAVE QTR LAST YR.... 3.57 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.52 2.48 2.44 2.22 2.10 2.51 3.98 2.71 2.48
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 15: TENNESSEE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS).... 2867 2877 2913 2909 2909 2923 2960 2963 2976 2968 3018 2818 2891 2939
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.28 2.59 2.42 2.17 1.47 1.62 1.61 1.86 2.32 1.53 1.97 0.69 2.61 1.64
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)...... 2701 2736 2770 2778 2762 2789 2815 2829 2828 2833 2873 2692 2746 2798
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.80 1.86 2.09 2.31 2.28 1.93 1.62 1.83 2.40 1.60 2.09 0.13 2.02 1.91
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS).... 166 141 143 131 147 134 145 134 148 135 145 126 145 140
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 35.13 19.29 9.13 -0.76 -11.70 -4.39 1.49 2.51 0.76 0.13 -0.24 14.34 15.26 -3.48
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT).... 63.0 63.0 63.6 63.5 63.3 63.3 63.9 63.9 64.0 63.6 64.7 62.2 63.3 63.6
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.56 1.62 1.35 1.20 0.38 0.53 0.49 0.73 1.15 0.35 1.19 0.04 1.68 0.53
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)..... 5.8 4.9 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.6 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.5 5.0 4.8
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 16: TENNESSEE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS).... 2898 2883 2887 2896 2942 2930 2933 2949 3010 2975 2991 2818 2891 2938
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 9.27 -2.00 0.44 1.27 6.50 -1.59 0.44 2.26 8.45 -4.61 2.22 0.69 2.60 1.65
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.24 2.58 2.41 2.16 1.51 1.61 1.61 1.86 2.32 1.53 1.97 0.69 2.60 1.65
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)...... 2738 2738 2748 2759 2801 2790 2793 2809 2868 2835 2851 2692 2746 2798
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.35 -0.12 1.58 1.53 6.22 -1.46 0.34 2.38 8.62 -4.51 2.28 0.13 2.01 1.91
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.77 1.86 2.09 2.31 2.28 1.93 1.62 1.83 2.40 1.60 2.09 0.13 2.01 1.91
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS).... 160 146 138 137 141 139 140 140 142 140 140 126 145 140
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 79.32 -30.31 -19.22 -3.92 12.37 -4.18 2.55 0.01 4.89 -6.55 1.05 14.37 15.15 -3.37
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 37.21 18.32 9.13 -0.76 -11.70 -4.39 1.49 2.51 0.76 0.13 -0.24 14.37 15.15 -3.37
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT).... 63.7 63.2 63.0 63.2 64.0 63.5 63.4 63.6 64.7 63.7 64.1 62.2 63.3 63.6
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 8.43 -3.50 -0.69 0.89 5.16 -3.11 -0.78 1.83 6.96 -6.17 2.61 0.04 1.66 0.54
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.52 1.61 1.35 1.19 0.42 0.52 0.50 0.73 1.16 0.35 1.20 0.04 1.66 0.54
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)..... 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 5.0 4.8
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 17: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL........................... 15767 17222 16843 18272 15827 17357 17204 18644 16116 17500 17669 67966 68104 69031
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.18 -0.41 -0.07 1.07 0.38 0.78 2.14 2.04 1.83 0.83 2.70 -2.13 0.20 1.36
AUTO DEALERS.................. 1904 2029 2090 2037 2106 2081 2076 2155 2211 2094 2122 7865 8060 8419
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.55 3.36 6.27 -1.98 10.59 2.56 -0.66 5.83 5.02 0.63 2.20 0.69 2.48 4.45
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 733 889 894 927 734 891 907 947 779 920 903 3605 3443 3479
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -13.83 -7.59 -0.30 3.51 0.15 0.22 1.45 2.12 6.17 3.28 -0.52 -7.76 -4.49 1.04
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 2538 2928 2662 2846 2548 2951 2870 2851 2532 2911 2781 11278 10974 11221
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.96 -3.19 -3.71 -0.96 0.38 0.79 7.82 0.19 -0.61 -1.37 -3.11 -6.69 -2.69 2.25
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1424 1545 1547 1467 1422 1553 1564 1492 1453 1585 1600 5882 5982 6031
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.02 3.12 1.67 -0.92 -0.13 0.52 1.11 1.72 2.20 2.10 2.31 1.83 1.70 0.81
FOOD STORES................... 1703 1779 1790 1931 1632 1724 1745 1873 1642 1735 1742 7384 7203 6974
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.54 -3.12 -2.42 -1.79 -4.18 -3.07 -2.51 -3.01 0.58 0.64 -0.15 -2.48 -2.46 -3.18
LIQUOR STORES................. 86 88 85 112 84 86 83 110 83 85 82 362 371 363
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.64 2.37 3.41 1.06 -2.30 -2.25 -2.02 -1.69 -1.26 -1.20 -1.11 1.28 2.27 -2.04
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 321 431 451 412 325 431 451 411 325 431 451 1627 1615 1617
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.65 -1.37 0.72 1.73 1.24 -0.05 -0.16 -0.23 -0.07 -0.05 -0.01 -4.29 -0.70 0.13
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 4505 4864 4621 5632 4388 4876 4733 5784 4426 4930 5088 19518 19622 19782
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.58 1.36 -1.07 0.33 -2.60 0.24 2.43 2.71 0.86 1.12 7.50 -2.32 0.53 0.81
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1296 1365 1318 1658 1334 1400 1333 1719 1359 1425 1437 5745 5637 5786
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.02 -3.43 -1.95 2.12 2.98 2.59 1.10 3.68 1.83 1.78 7.82 -2.51 -1.89 2.65
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1258 1304 1385 1251 1254 1363 1442 1301 1306 1382 1463 4699 5197 5361
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 17.77 2.37 4.54 21.11 -0.28 4.53 4.14 4.03 4.16 1.43 1.46 7.74 10.60 3.14
PER CAPITA ($).................. 2732 2973 2899 3141 2712 2964 2929 3169 2731 2954 2983 11836 11746 11774
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.62 -1.40 -1.12 0.07 -0.71 -0.32 1.01 0.90 0.67 -0.34 1.83 -2.87 -0.76 0.24
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 18: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1996 DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL........................... 17045 17015 16674 17410 17078 17151 17032 17774 17383 17295 17507 68039 68144 69036
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -3.94 -0.72 -7.77 18.86 -7.40 1.71 -2.75 18.60 -8.51 -2.01 5.00 -2.14 0.15 1.31
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.13 -0.33 -0.06 1.12 0.19 0.80 2.15 2.09 1.78 0.84 2.79 -2.14 0.15 1.31
AUTO DEALERS.................. 1915 1959 1959 2258 2116 2012 1946 2389 2222 2024 1988 7910 8091 8463
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -52.16 9.54 -0.17 76.56 -22.81 -18.36 -12.50 127.46 -25.15 -31.15 -6.92 1.27 2.30 4.59
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.36 3.56 6.27 -1.96 10.49 2.66 -0.66 5.83 5.02 0.63 2.20 1.27 2.30 4.59
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 825 840 875 901 825 842 887 920 876 869 883 3614 3440 3474
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -19.17 7.60 17.55 12.41 -29.52 8.30 23.44 15.42 -17.67 -2.99 6.23 -7.67 -4.81 0.99
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -14.00 -7.61 -0.15 3.54 0.05 0.21 1.45 2.12 6.17 3.28 -0.52 -7.67 -4.81 0.99
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 2770 2777 2624 2810 2775 2803 2829 2815 2758 2764 2742 11285 10981 11222
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -9.44 1.04 -20.27 31.46 -4.89 4.10 3.85 -2.02 -7.88 0.96 -3.27 -6.91 -2.70 2.20
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.33 -2.92 -3.51 -1.04 0.18 0.93 7.82 0.19 -0.61 -1.37 -3.11 -6.91 -2.70 2.20
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1496 1498 1499 1490 1493 1506 1516 1516 1525 1538 1551 5883 5983 6031
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.17 0.65 0.31 -2.40 0.68 3.70 2.58 -0.03 2.58 3.31 3.43 1.83 1.70 0.80
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.88 3.18 1.72 -0.91 -0.20 0.55 1.11 1.72 2.20 2.10 2.31 1.83 1.70 0.80
FOOD STORES................... 1821 1793 1797 1793 1745 1738 1752 1739 1755 1749 1749 7387 7205 6974
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -0.98 -6.15 0.96 -0.85 -10.34 -1.58 3.23 -2.87 3.68 -1.30 0.00 -2.44 -2.47 -3.20
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.58 -3.09 -2.43 -1.79 -4.20 -3.05 -2.51 -3.01 0.58 0.64 -0.15 -2.44 -2.47 -3.20
LIQUOR STORES................. 93 93 93 92 91 91 91 90 90 90 90 362 371 363
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 11.34 -1.78 -1.92 -2.51 -3.14 -1.47 -0.94 -1.20 -1.43 -1.23 -0.57 1.12 2.35 -2.08
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.55 2.34 3.38 1.12 -2.34 -2.26 -2.02 -1.69 -1.26 -1.20 -1.11 1.12 2.35 -2.08
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 400 404 405 405 405 405 404 404 404 404 404 1630 1615 1618
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 1.48 4.53 0.52 0.07 -0.52 0.00 -0.16 -0.21 0.11 0.06 0.01 -4.33 -0.95 0.19
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.85 -1.24 0.86 1.63 1.13 0.02 -0.16 -0.23 -0.07 -0.05 -0.01 -4.33 -0.95 0.19
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 4996 4959 4758 4917 4862 4972 4874 5050 4904 5027 5239 19525 19631 19758
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 8.27 -2.93 -15.24 13.99 -4.41 9.36 -7.64 15.27 -11.11 10.46 17.98 -2.42 0.54 0.65
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.37 1.38 -1.01 0.38 -2.69 0.25 2.43 2.71 0.86 1.12 7.50 -2.42 0.54 0.65
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1422 1401 1368 1443 1462 1438 1383 1496 1488 1463 1491 5757 5634 5778
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.81 -5.79 -9.16 23.74 5.41 -6.44 -14.40 36.90 -1.95 -6.60 7.78 -2.39 -2.14 2.56
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -5.37 -3.40 -1.69 2.15 2.79 2.61 1.10 3.68 1.83 1.78 7.82 -2.39 -2.14 2.56
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1307 1290 1296 1302 1305 1346 1350 1354 1360 1365 1370 4686 5194 5356
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 117.70 -5.10 2.15 1.69 1.08 12.94 1.32 1.26 1.59 1.53 1.47 7.38 10.86 3.10
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 18.22 2.02 4.48 21.04 -0.09 4.36 4.14 4.03 4.16 1.43 1.46 7.38 10.86 3.10
PER CAPITA ($).................. 2953 2937 2870 2993 2927 2929 2900 3021 2945 2919 2955 11850 11754 11777
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -4.75 -2.16 -8.81 18.22 -8.55 0.23 -3.91 17.91 -9.72 -3.51 5.06 -2.88 -0.81 0.19
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.92 -1.31 -1.12 0.12 -0.90 -0.29 1.02 0.95 0.63 -0.33 1.92 -2.88 -0.81 0.19
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 19: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL........................... 17366 19089 18772 20497 17895 19754 19714 21511 18705 20435 20757 74473 75724 78874
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.08 0.68 1.60 3.22 3.05 3.48 5.02 4.95 4.53 3.45 5.29 -0.16 1.68 4.16
AUTO DEALERS.................. 2097 2249 2330 2285 2381 2369 2379 2487 2567 2446 2493 8618 8961 9616
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.48 4.49 8.04 0.11 13.54 5.31 2.13 8.85 7.80 3.25 4.78 2.76 3.98 7.31
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 807 985 997 1040 830 1014 1040 1092 904 1074 1060 3950 3829 3976
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -13.05 -6.58 1.37 5.71 2.82 2.91 4.31 5.03 8.98 5.97 1.99 -5.91 -3.06 3.83
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 2796 3245 2967 3193 2881 3359 3289 3290 2939 3399 3267 12358 12200 12819
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.08 -2.13 -2.11 1.15 3.05 3.50 10.86 3.05 2.03 1.20 -0.66 -4.79 -1.27 5.07
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1568 1712 1724 1646 1608 1767 1792 1722 1687 1851 1880 6445 6650 6889
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.95 4.25 3.37 1.19 2.53 3.21 3.96 4.62 4.91 4.76 4.89 3.89 3.18 3.59
FOOD STORES................... 1876 1972 1994 2166 1846 1962 1999 2161 1905 2026 2046 8091 8008 7968
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.65 -2.06 -0.79 0.30 -1.63 -0.47 0.23 -0.25 3.24 3.26 2.37 -0.52 -1.02 -0.51
LIQUOR STORES................. 94 98 94 125 95 98 95 127 96 100 97 397 412 415
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.57 3.49 5.13 3.22 0.30 0.37 0.74 1.12 1.36 1.37 1.39 3.29 3.80 0.67
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 354 478 503 462 368 490 516 474 377 503 529 1783 1796 1848
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.79 -0.29 2.40 3.89 3.93 2.63 2.66 2.62 2.58 2.55 2.51 -2.38 0.77 2.89
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 4962 5392 5150 6318 4961 5549 5424 6674 5137 5757 5978 21389 21821 22609
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.50 2.47 0.58 2.47 0.00 2.93 5.31 5.64 3.54 3.75 10.21 -0.37 2.02 3.61
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1427 1513 1469 1860 1509 1594 1527 1983 1577 1664 1688 6295 6269 6613
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.15 -2.37 -0.31 4.30 5.72 5.34 3.94 6.64 4.53 4.43 10.54 -0.58 -0.42 5.49
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1385 1445 1543 1403 1418 1551 1653 1502 1516 1614 1719 5149 5777 6123
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 18.83 3.49 6.28 23.69 2.37 7.33 7.08 7.00 6.93 4.06 4.02 9.93 12.20 5.99
PER CAPITA ($).................. 3009 3295 3231 3524 3067 3373 3356 3657 3169 3449 3504 12969 13059 13453
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.28 -0.32 0.53 2.20 1.93 2.36 3.86 3.78 3.34 2.25 4.40 -0.91 0.70 3.01
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL September 2002 UPDATE
TABLE 20: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES
MILLIONS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CURRENT DOLLARS
HISTORY FORECAST - DATA ANNUAL
------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------
200201 200202 200203 200204 200301 200302 200303 200304 200401 200402 200403 2001 2002 2003
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
TOTAL........................... 18774 18859 18583 19530 19311 19520 19517 20508 20177 20195 20567 74546 75746 78855
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.88 1.83 -5.72 22.00 -4.43 4.40 -0.05 21.90 -6.31 0.38 7.57 -0.16 1.61 4.10
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.78 0.77 1.60 3.27 2.86 3.50 5.03 5.00 4.48 3.46 5.38 -0.16 1.61 4.10
AUTO DEALERS.................. 2110 2172 2183 2533 2393 2289 2230 2757 2580 2364 2336 8667 8997 9669
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -51.63 12.35 2.05 81.24 -20.33 -16.20 -10.07 133.80 -23.35 -29.48 -4.63 3.35 3.81 7.46
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.29 4.69 8.04 0.12 13.43 5.41 2.13 8.85 7.80 3.25 4.78 3.35 3.81 7.46
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 908 931 975 1010 933 958 1017 1061 1017 1015 1037 3959 3824 3969
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -18.28 10.37 20.15 15.39 -27.26 11.17 26.86 18.63 -15.68 -0.63 8.84 -5.80 -3.40 3.78
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -13.22 -6.60 1.51 5.75 2.71 2.90 4.31 5.03 8.98 5.97 1.99 -5.80 -3.40 3.78
MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 3051 3078 2925 3152 3137 3190 3242 3248 3201 3228 3221 12364 12205 12818
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.44 3.64 -18.50 34.94 -1.84 6.86 6.73 0.71 -5.66 3.42 -0.90 -5.01 -1.28 5.02
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.46 -1.86 -1.90 1.07 2.85 3.64 10.86 3.05 2.03 1.20 -0.66 -5.01 -1.28 5.02
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1647 1660 1671 1672 1688 1714 1737 1749 1771 1796 1822 6446 6650 6888
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -1.09 3.23 2.54 0.18 3.91 6.44 5.42 2.76 5.05 5.83 5.97 3.89 3.17 3.58
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.81 4.31 3.42 1.20 2.46 3.24 3.96 4.62 4.91 4.76 4.89 3.89 3.17 3.58
FOOD STORES................... 2006 1987 2003 2012 1973 1978 2008 2007 2037 2043 2055 8094 8008 7965
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 0.10 -3.74 3.20 1.77 -7.46 1.03 6.08 -0.16 6.19 1.10 2.45 -0.47 -1.06 -0.53
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.70 -2.03 -0.80 0.30 -1.65 -0.46 0.23 -0.25 3.24 3.26 2.37 -0.47 -1.06 -0.53
LIQUOR STORES................. 103 103 103 103 103 103 104 104 105 105 105 397 412 415
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 12.56 0.74 0.26 0.07 -0.03 1.13 1.81 1.56 0.95 1.17 1.87 3.17 3.83 0.62
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.48 3.46 5.11 3.28 0.26 0.36 0.74 1.12 1.36 1.37 1.39 3.17 3.83 0.62
HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 441 448 451 454 457 460 463 466 469 472 475 1786 1795 1848
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.59 7.21 2.75 2.71 2.68 2.64 2.60 2.57 2.53 2.49 2.46 -2.39 0.49 2.94
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.99 -0.16 2.54 3.80 3.82 2.70 2.66 2.62 2.58 2.55 2.51 -2.39 0.49 2.94
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 5503 5497 5303 5516 5497 5658 5585 5827 5692 5870 6155 21392 21819 22567
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 9.46 -0.44 -13.36 17.01 -1.34 12.26 -5.08 18.48 -8.96 13.15 20.88 -0.45 1.99 3.43
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.29 2.49 0.64 2.52 -0.11 2.94 5.31 5.64 3.54 3.75 10.21 -0.45 1.99 3.43
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1566 1553 1524 1618 1653 1636 1585 1726 1728 1709 1752 6307 6262 6600
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.94 -3.38 -7.14 27.01 8.79 -3.96 -12.03 40.71 0.42 -4.32 10.42 -0.42 -0.71 5.39
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -4.51 -2.34 -0.05 4.32 5.52 5.36 3.94 6.64 4.53 4.43 10.54 -0.42 -0.71 5.39
TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1439 1429 1445 1460 1476 1532 1547 1563 1578 1594 1609 5134 5774 6117
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 120.09 -2.66 4.42 4.38 4.33 15.93 4.13 4.09 4.04 4.00 3.96 9.56 12.46 5.95
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 19.29 3.14 6.23 23.61 2.57 7.15 7.08 7.00 6.93 4.06 4.02 9.56 12.46 5.95
PER CAPITA ($).................. 3253 3256 3199 3358 3309 3333 3323 3486 3419 3409 3472 12983 13065 13451
% CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -3.70 0.35 -6.78 21.35 -5.61 2.88 -1.25 21.20 -7.54 -1.16 7.64 -0.91 0.64 2.96
% CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.02 -0.23 0.53 2.25 1.74 2.38 3.86 3.83 3.30 2.27 4.49 -0.91 0.64 2.96
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.
[TOP]
[Fall 2002 Historical Tables][CBER Home Page] [Contact CBER]
Address questions or comments about the design of this site to: CBER.