Over the years, criticism of Kentucky's job-creation strategy has been largely quashed by state officials with one word: Toyota.

By the end of this year, Toyota's Georgetown assembly plant will have directly and indirectly created 36,797 jobs with an average wage of $46,120, according to the most recent study of the company's economic impact in Kentucky.

Only about 7,000 of those jobs are at Toyota's plant, which opened in 1988, but those well-paid employees have spawned tens of thousands of service and manufacturing jobs in the state.

The study, done by former University of Kentucky economist Charles Haywood, estimated that state tax revenue attributable to the direct and indirect effects of Toyota had reached a cumulative total of $571.4 million by 1997 and would continue to grow by more than $100 million a year thereafter. In comparison, the state gave Toyota a $147 million cash package to locate in Kentucky.

"It was a fantastic investment," Haywood said.

It's hard to argue against such impressive numbers, but William Fox does.

In a recent study that challenges conventional wisdom, the University of Tennessee economist found that metropolitan areas lucky enough to land businesses with more than 1,000 employees aren't really all that lucky. The 93 locations that lured such businesses in the 1980s -- including the Lexington metro area -- ultimately fared no better economically than places that didn't land big employers, Fox found.

His study, published last year by the Southern Economic Journal, concludes that recruitment of ultra-large businesses "is simply not a cost-effective economic development strategy."

Fox, who in the 1980s helped Tennessee negotiate a deal to help attract Nissan, explains his findings, in part, by noting that mega-businesses often crowd out other economic activity.

"Toyota saw some good things about Central Kentucky. Had Toyota not seen those things, other firms would have," said Fox, the director of UT's Center for Business and Economic Research and a former paid consultant for Gov. Ernie Fletcher's administration.

"It wasn't Toyota or nothing. Over the long term, you would have gotten the same amount of employment, although probably not with one big employer."