TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ US GDP (BIL96$) SAAR............ 8733.5 8771.2 8871.5 9049.9 9102.5 9229.4 9260.1 9303.9 9334.5 9341.7 9333.4 8508.9 8856.5 9224.0 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 3.06 1.74 4.65 8.29 2.34 5.69 1.34 1.91 1.32 0.31 -0.36 4.28 4.09 4.15 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 4.02 3.89 4.02 4.41 4.23 5.22 4.38 2.81 2.55 1.22 0.79 4.28 4.09 4.15 US GDP (BIL$) SAAR.............. 9093.1 9161.4 9297.4 9522.5 9668.7 9857.6 9937.510027.910141.710202.610247.7 8781.5 9268.6 9872.9 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.92 3.04 6.07 10.04 6.28 8.05 3.28 3.69 4.62 2.42 1.78 5.57 5.55 6.52 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 5.39 5.34 5.45 5.99 6.33 7.60 6.88 5.31 4.89 3.50 3.12 5.57 5.55 6.52 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR,GDP........... 104.1 104.4 104.8 105.2 106.2 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.6 109.2 109.8 103.2 104.6 107.0 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.80 1.28 1.36 1.62 3.85 2.23 1.92 1.75 3.25 2.11 2.15 1.23 1.40 2.28 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.32 1.39 1.38 1.51 2.02 2.26 2.40 2.43 2.29 2.26 2.31 1.23 1.40 2.28 US PERS CONS DEFL (1996=100).... 103.9 104.4 105.0 105.6 106.7 107.2 107.8 108.4 109.2 109.6 109.5 103.0 104.7 107.5 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.32 2.04 2.23 2.43 3.99 2.11 2.39 1.95 3.21 1.34 -0.38 1.07 1.64 2.67 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.27 1.53 1.75 2.01 2.67 2.69 2.73 2.61 2.41 2.22 1.52 1.07 1.64 2.67 TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL96$) SAAR 131640 132946 133692 134286 135503 137156 137941 139046 140434 141290 141241 130325 133141 137411 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -1.43 4.03 2.26 1.79 3.68 4.97 2.31 3.24 4.05 2.46 -0.14 5.90 2.16 3.21 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.05 2.07 1.91 1.64 2.93 3.17 3.18 3.55 3.64 3.01 2.39 5.90 2.16 3.21 US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL96$) SAAR 7346.3 7393.8 7447.6 7517.2 7598.8 7714.7 7771.7 7861.7 7910.2 7952.0 8016.8 7207.2 7426.2 7736.7 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.62 2.61 2.94 3.79 4.42 6.24 2.99 4.71 2.49 2.13 3.30 5.92 3.04 4.18 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.87 2.98 2.58 2.74 3.44 4.34 4.35 4.58 4.10 3.07 3.15 5.92 3.04 4.18 TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR.. 136749 138804 140354 141827 144519 147046 148765 150683 153393 154841 154639 134282 139434 147753 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -0.13 6.15 4.54 4.26 7.81 7.18 4.76 5.26 7.39 3.83 -0.52 7.03 3.84 5.97 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 4.36 3.63 3.69 3.68 5.68 5.94 5.99 6.24 6.14 5.30 3.95 7.03 3.84 5.97 US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR.. 7631.4 7719.6 7818.7 7939.3 8104.4 8271.0 8381.5 8519.6 8640.2 8714.6 8777.3 7426.0 7777.3 8319.2 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 2.97 4.70 5.23 6.32 8.58 8.48 5.45 6.75 5.78 3.49 2.91 7.05 4.73 6.97 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 5.19 4.56 4.38 4.80 6.20 7.14 7.20 7.31 6.61 5.36 4.72 7.05 4.73 6.97 TN NONAGRIC JOBS (THOUS)........ 2663.5 2676.4 2692.0 2705.5 2725.4 2733.3 2749.3 2750.6 2750.6 2757.8 2758.8 2637.2 2684.4 2739.7 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 1.22 1.95 2.36 2.02 2.97 1.16 2.36 0.19 0.00 1.05 0.14 2.06 1.79 2.06 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.76 1.64 1.87 1.89 2.32 2.13 2.13 1.67 0.93 0.90 0.35 2.06 1.79 2.06 US NONAGRIC JOBS (MIL).......... 127.8 128.5 129.2 130.1 131.0 131.9 131.9 132.3 132.6 132.5 132.3 125.8 128.9 131.8 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 2.55 2.30 2.24 2.78 2.72 2.68 0.22 1.02 0.90 -0.23 -0.43 2.58 2.43 2.22 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.44 2.39 2.41 2.47 2.51 2.61 2.10 1.66 1.20 0.48 0.31 2.58 2.43 2.22 TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)........ 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.9 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)........ 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%).... 7.8 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.2 9.5 9.5 8.6 7.3 6.6 8.4 8.0 9.2 TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)............. 509.0 509.2 512.9 511.7 510.3 510.2 510.5 504.8 496.8 491.3 486.6 514.3 510.7 508.9 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -1.09 0.18 2.91 -0.96 -1.06 -0.08 0.26 -4.44 -6.19 -4.33 -3.75 -0.65 -0.70 -0.34 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ -1.95 -1.56 0.50 0.25 0.26 0.19 -0.46 -1.35 -2.65 -3.70 -4.68 -0.65 -0.70 -0.34 (CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE) TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS (CONT.) SEASONALLY ADJUSTED HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL96$)....... 17144 17137 17293 17494 17796 17305 17271 17069 17114 17077 16681 64299 69068 69441 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.45 -0.17 3.70 4.72 7.08 -10.58 -0.79 -4.59 1.07 -0.88 -8.95 -0.72 7.42 0.54 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 14.80 4.92 6.80 3.89 3.80 0.98 -0.13 -2.43 -3.83 -1.32 -3.42 -0.72 7.42 0.54 TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)......... 17810 17892 18155 18476 18980 18553 18626 18498 18694 18714 18263 66257 72333 74657 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 8.87 1.86 6.01 7.27 11.36 -8.69 1.58 -2.73 4.31 0.44 -9.30 0.35 9.17 3.21 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 16.26 6.53 8.67 5.97 6.57 3.69 2.60 0.12 -1.51 0.87 -1.95 0.35 9.17 3.21 TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG (96$).. 28270 28638 28753 28701 28548 28697 28705 28847 29133 29272 29158 28024 28591 28699 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -0.62 5.32 1.61 -0.72 -2.12 2.11 0.11 1.99 4.02 1.93 -1.55 3.35 2.02 0.38 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.25 2.11 2.36 1.37 0.98 0.20 -0.17 0.51 2.05 2.00 1.58 3.35 2.02 0.38 TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG ($).... 29367 29900 30186 30313 30447 30766 30958 31261 31821 32080 31924 28875 29942 30858 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 0.70 7.46 3.88 1.69 1.78 4.26 2.51 3.97 7.36 3.29 -1.92 4.45 3.69 3.06 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.55 3.68 4.15 3.40 3.68 2.90 2.56 3.13 4.51 4.27 3.12 4.45 3.69 3.06 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 2: SELECTED PER CAPITA U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ US GDP (96$) SAAR............... 32184 32254 32554 33139 33262 33655 33697 33786 33827 33784 33684 31524 32533 33600 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 2.19 0.88 3.77 7.38 1.49 4.81 0.50 1.07 0.49 -0.51 -1.17 3.38 3.20 3.28 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.12 3.00 3.14 3.53 3.35 4.34 3.51 1.95 1.70 0.38 -0.04 3.38 3.20 3.28 US GDP ($) SAAR................. 33509 33689 34117 34869 35331 35946 36162 36415 36752 36897 36984 32534 34046 35963 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 4.03 2.17 5.18 9.12 5.40 7.15 2.43 2.83 3.76 1.58 0.95 4.65 4.65 5.63 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 4.49 4.44 4.56 5.09 5.44 6.70 5.99 4.43 4.02 2.65 2.27 4.65 4.65 5.63 TN PERSONAL INCOME (96$) SAAR... 23449 23608 23668 23700 23842 24059 24157 24273 24441 24514 24466 23397 23606 24083 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -2.65 2.74 1.01 0.55 2.41 3.69 1.64 1.94 2.79 1.21 -0.79 4.50 0.89 2.02 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 1.75 0.80 0.65 0.39 1.67 1.91 2.07 2.42 2.51 1.89 1.28 4.50 0.89 2.02 TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR..... 24359 24648 24847 25031 25428 25794 26053 26305 26696 26866 26787 24108 24721 25895 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... -1.36 4.83 3.26 3.00 6.50 5.88 4.08 3.93 6.09 2.56 -1.17 5.62 2.55 4.75 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 3.04 2.34 2.41 2.41 4.39 4.65 4.85 5.09 4.99 4.16 2.82 5.62 2.55 4.75 US PERSONAL INCOME (96$) SAAR... 27072 27189 27329 27526 27767 28132 28281 28549 28666 28758 28933 26701 27279 28182 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 0.76 1.75 2.07 2.92 3.54 5.36 2.13 3.85 1.65 1.29 2.46 5.00 2.16 3.31 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 2.98 2.10 1.71 1.87 2.57 3.47 3.48 3.71 3.24 2.22 2.31 5.00 2.16 3.31 US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR..... 28123 28387 28691 29072 29615 30160 30500 30938 31311 31516 31677 27512 28568 30303 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 2.09 3.82 4.35 5.42 7.67 7.58 4.58 5.87 4.91 2.64 2.07 6.12 3.84 6.07 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 4.29 3.67 3.49 3.91 5.31 6.25 6.31 6.42 5.73 4.49 3.86 6.12 3.84 6.07 TN TAXABLE SALES (96$).......... 3054 3043 3061 3087 3131 3036 3025 2980 2979 2963 2889 11543 12246 12171 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 6.12 -1.41 2.43 3.45 5.78 -11.67 -1.44 -5.80 -0.16 -2.09 -9.54 -2.04 6.09 -0.61 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 13.35 3.61 5.48 2.61 2.53 -0.25 -1.20 -3.49 -4.87 -2.39 -4.47 -2.04 6.09 -0.61 TN TAXABLE SALES ($)............ 3172 3177 3214 3261 3340 3254 3262 3229 3253 3247 3164 11894 12825 13085 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR........... 7.53 0.60 4.71 5.96 10.00 -9.81 0.92 -3.96 3.05 -0.79 -9.89 -0.99 7.82 2.03 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR........ 14.79 5.20 7.33 4.67 5.26 2.43 1.49 -0.97 -2.58 -0.23 -3.01 -0.99 7.82 2.03 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 3: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME............ 131640 132946 133692 134286 135503 137156 137941 139046 140434 141290 141241 130325 133141 137411 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -1.43 4.03 2.26 1.79 3.68 4.97 2.31 3.24 4.05 2.46 -0.14 5.90 2.16 3.21 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.05 2.07 1.91 1.64 2.93 3.17 3.18 3.55 3.64 3.01 2.39 5.90 2.16 3.21 WAGES AND SALARIES............. 76061 77414 78160 78410 78599 79206 79693 80111 80933 81534 81261 74624 77511 79402 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 0.69 7.31 3.91 1.28 0.97 3.12 2.48 2.11 4.17 3.01 -1.33 5.48 3.87 2.44 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 4.12 3.83 4.27 3.27 3.34 2.31 1.96 2.17 2.97 2.94 1.97 5.48 3.87 2.44 OTHER LABOR INCOME............. 8490 8600 8643 8637 8568 8594 8681 8693 8715 8745 8737 8354 8593 8634 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 1.94 5.26 2.03 -0.29 -3.16 1.24 4.09 0.54 1.03 1.40 -0.37 0.90 2.85 0.48 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.16 2.84 3.22 2.21 0.91 -0.07 0.43 0.64 1.71 1.76 0.65 0.90 2.85 0.48 PROPRIETORS INCOME............. 12960 13302 13373 13495 13831 13892 13719 13884 14017 14149 13979 12649 13282 13832 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -2.44 10.98 2.14 3.71 10.32 1.79 -4.88 4.89 3.90 3.81 -4.72 7.06 5.01 4.13 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 5.50 6.26 4.87 3.49 6.72 4.44 2.59 2.88 1.35 1.85 1.89 7.06 5.01 4.13 RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS........ 20566 20228 20117 20239 20633 21046 21239 21419 21234 21056 21290 21198 20287 21085 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -12.81 -6.42 -2.18 2.46 8.01 8.26 3.72 3.43 -3.41 -3.31 4.52 11.12 -4.30 3.93 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... -0.04 -5.18 -6.88 -4.90 0.33 4.05 5.58 5.83 2.91 0.05 0.24 11.12 -4.30 3.93 TRANSFER PAYMENTS.............. 20547 20541 20583 20677 21027 21588 21792 22123 22808 23129 23255 20239 20587 21633 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 6.45 -0.11 0.83 1.83 6.95 11.12 3.83 6.23 12.97 5.74 2.20 3.73 1.72 5.08 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.56 1.47 1.62 2.22 2.34 5.10 5.87 7.00 8.47 7.14 6.71 3.73 1.72 5.08 LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS..... 5987 6076 6113 6111 6115 6122 6127 6121 6223 6242 6186 5845 6072 6121 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 5.24 6.12 2.46 -0.17 0.28 0.42 0.37 -0.42 6.84 1.26 -3.56 4.66 3.88 0.81 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.93 3.86 4.36 3.38 2.15 0.75 0.23 0.16 1.76 1.97 0.96 4.66 3.88 0.81 RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT........... -997 -1062 -1071 -1061 -1040 -1049 -1056 -1063 -1051 -1081 -1096 -894 -1048 -1052 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 47.49 28.69 3.22 -3.41 -7.89 3.71 2.61 2.64 -4.45 12.03 5.52 14.09 17.20 0.40 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 14.43 16.82 20.21 17.29 4.26 -1.21 -1.36 0.15 1.08 3.05 3.77 14.09 17.20 0.40 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)... 23449 23608 23668 23700 23842 24059 24157 24273 24441 24514 24466 23397 23606 24083 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -2.65 2.74 1.01 0.55 2.41 3.69 1.64 1.94 2.79 1.21 -0.79 4.50 0.89 2.02 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.75 0.80 0.65 0.39 1.67 1.91 2.07 2.42 2.51 1.89 1.28 4.50 0.89 2.02 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 4: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME............ 136749 138804 140354 141827 144519 147046 148765 150683 153393 154841 154639 134282 139434 147753 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -0.13 6.15 4.54 4.26 7.81 7.18 4.76 5.26 7.39 3.83 -0.52 7.03 3.84 5.97 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 4.36 3.63 3.69 3.68 5.68 5.94 5.99 6.24 6.14 5.30 3.95 7.03 3.84 5.97 WAGES AND SALARIES............. 79013 80825 82055 82813 83829 84917 85946 86815 88401 89354 88970 76890 81177 85377 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 2.02 9.49 6.23 3.75 5.00 5.29 4.94 4.11 7.51 4.38 -1.71 6.61 5.57 5.17 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 5.44 5.43 6.10 5.34 6.10 5.06 4.74 4.83 5.45 5.23 3.52 6.61 5.57 5.17 OTHER LABOR INCOME............. 8820 8979 9074 9122 9138 9214 9362 9420 9519 9584 9566 8608 8999 9284 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 3.29 7.41 4.30 2.13 0.70 3.37 6.58 2.50 4.27 2.76 -0.76 1.98 4.54 3.16 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 4.47 4.42 5.02 4.26 3.61 2.62 3.17 3.27 4.17 4.02 2.18 1.98 4.54 3.16 PROPRIETORS INCOME............. 13463 13888 14039 14253 14751 14894 14796 15046 15311 15506 15305 13033 13911 14872 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -1.15 13.24 4.42 6.24 14.73 3.93 -2.61 6.93 7.23 5.19 -5.08 8.21 6.73 6.91 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 6.84 7.89 6.70 5.56 9.57 7.24 5.39 5.56 3.80 4.11 3.44 8.21 6.73 6.91 RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS........ 21364 21119 21119 21376 22006 22564 22906 23212 23194 23076 23310 21842 21245 22672 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -11.65 -4.51 0.00 4.96 12.32 10.54 6.20 5.45 -0.31 -2.02 4.12 12.30 -2.73 6.72 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 1.23 -3.73 -5.25 -3.00 3.01 6.84 8.46 8.59 5.40 2.27 1.76 12.30 -2.73 6.72 TRANSFER PAYMENTS.............. 21344 21446 21609 21838 22426 23145 23502 23975 24913 25347 25461 20853 21559 23262 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 7.86 1.93 3.08 4.31 11.21 13.45 6.31 8.30 16.59 7.15 1.81 4.83 3.39 7.90 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 2.85 3.03 3.40 4.27 5.07 7.92 8.76 9.79 11.09 9.51 8.33 4.83 3.39 7.90 LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS..... 6219 6344 6418 6454 6522 6563 6608 6633 6797 6841 6773 6022 6359 6582 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 6.63 8.29 4.75 2.26 4.28 2.54 2.77 1.52 10.26 2.61 -3.93 5.77 5.59 3.50 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 5.25 5.45 6.19 5.46 4.87 3.45 2.96 2.77 4.22 4.24 2.49 5.77 5.59 3.50 RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT........... -1036 -1109 -1124 -1121 -1109 -1125 -1139 -1152 -1148 -1185 -1200 -921 -1098 -1131 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... 49.44 31.31 5.52 -1.06 -4.21 5.90 5.07 4.64 -1.38 13.53 5.12 15.30 19.13 3.08 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 15.88 18.61 22.31 19.64 7.05 1.44 1.33 2.77 3.52 5.33 5.34 15.30 19.13 3.08 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)... 24359 24648 24847 25031 25428 25794 26053 26305 26696 26866 26787 24108 24721 25895 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR.......... -1.36 4.83 3.26 3.00 6.50 5.88 4.08 3.93 6.09 2.56 -1.17 5.62 2.55 4.75 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR....... 3.04 2.34 2.41 2.41 4.39 4.65 4.85 5.09 4.99 4.16 2.82 5.62 2.55 4.75 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 5: TENNESSEE NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR THOUSANDS OF JOBS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 2628.4 2683.2 2698.4 2731.7 2688.7 2738.0 2748.0 2775.3 2721.0 2760.6 2759.0 2638.5 2685.4 2737.5 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.76 1.63 1.94 1.79 2.30 2.04 1.84 1.60 1.20 0.82 0.40 2.11 1.78 1.94 MINING........................ 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.33 0.78 0.00 -3.08 -0.79 -3.85 -4.55 -2.38 -1.60 -1.60 -4.76 -4.76 -1.15 -2.92 CONSTRUCTION.................. 115.4 125.2 128.1 125.4 122.1 127.7 130.4 128.2 124.7 131.2 133.3 120.9 123.5 127.1 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.25 2.34 2.21 1.79 5.81 2.02 1.80 2.23 2.13 2.74 2.17 2.42 2.14 2.90 MANUFACTURING................. 508.0 510.7 513.1 512.6 509.0 510.6 508.9 505.0 496.5 491.9 485.9 514.7 511.1 508.4 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.96 -1.59 0.58 0.18 0.20 -0.01 -0.81 -1.48 -2.46 -3.66 -4.51 -0.55 -0.71 -0.53 DURABLE GOODS............... 296.6 299.3 301.6 303.1 302.9 303.3 301.7 299.4 293.9 290.8 285.1 292.8 300.2 301.8 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.82 1.94 3.68 2.71 2.12 1.34 0.01 -1.22 -2.98 -4.13 -5.48 1.53 2.54 0.55 NONDURABLE GOODS............ 211.4 211.4 211.4 209.5 206.1 207.3 207.2 205.6 202.6 201.2 200.8 222.0 210.9 206.6 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -6.80 -6.18 -3.54 -3.28 -2.49 -1.92 -1.99 -1.85 -1.70 -2.97 -3.10 -3.18 -4.98 -2.06 TRADE......................... 614.6 626.1 633.7 649.0 627.1 641.5 647.5 663.5 641.3 654.0 659.7 620.5 630.8 644.9 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.70 1.24 1.65 2.07 2.03 2.45 2.19 2.24 2.26 1.96 1.87 1.69 1.67 2.23 SERVICES...................... 695.9 722.5 734.1 735.2 719.8 744.5 756.8 757.8 741.9 765.1 773.6 703.4 721.9 744.7 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.98 2.40 2.98 3.14 3.43 3.05 3.09 3.06 3.07 2.76 2.22 3.08 2.63 3.16 FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 129.8 131.7 132.4 130.8 130.4 131.1 131.8 131.1 129.8 131.0 131.4 126.7 131.2 131.1 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 6.19 4.64 3.01 0.33 0.51 -0.41 -0.45 0.23 -0.49 -0.13 -0.33 5.50 3.49 -0.03 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 167.9 171.7 174.0 176.1 173.7 178.1 179.5 179.8 179.4 182.8 181.8 162.3 172.4 177.8 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 8.56 7.76 5.07 3.91 3.49 3.73 3.14 2.10 3.28 2.64 1.28 7.60 6.26 3.11 GOVERNMENT.................... 392.7 391.0 378.6 398.3 402.4 400.3 388.8 405.7 403.3 400.4 389.5 385.5 390.2 399.3 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.23 1.46 0.49 0.61 2.47 2.36 2.70 1.85 0.23 0.04 0.16 1.38 1.20 2.34 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 51.3 52.0 50.7 51.0 52.1 57.8 56.2 53.6 54.1 55.1 54.3 50.8 51.2 54.9 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.99 1.70 1.47 -1.99 1.56 11.29 10.99 5.17 3.84 -4.67 -3.38 -1.87 0.77 7.26 STATE AND LOCAL............. 341.4 339.1 327.9 347.3 350.3 342.4 332.6 352.1 349.2 345.3 335.1 334.7 338.9 344.4 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.27 1.43 0.34 1.01 2.61 0.99 1.42 1.36 -0.30 0.84 0.76 1.89 1.26 1.60 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 6: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT THOUSANDS OF JOBS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL DURABLE GOODS............. 296.6 299.3 301.6 303.1 302.9 303.3 301.7 299.4 293.9 290.8 285.1 292.8 300.2 301.8 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.82 1.94 3.68 2.71 2.12 1.34 0.01 -1.22 -2.98 -4.13 -5.48 1.53 2.54 0.55 LUMBER AND WOOD............... 23.7 23.4 24.1 23.7 23.8 24.1 24.2 23.7 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.7 24.0 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.11 0.86 2.85 1.14 0.70 3.28 0.69 0.28 -3.92 -4.97 -4.54 3.19 2.23 1.23 FURNITURE AND FIXTURES........ 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.2 24.0 27.1 27.4 27.2 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.12 1.23 3.88 0.73 1.23 0.49 -1.81 -3.26 -5.61 -8.70 -11.53 -1.10 1.42 -0.85 STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.......... 16.1 16.7 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.0 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.2 16.7 17.0 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.21 2.24 3.89 5.19 4.75 1.20 0.98 0.59 0.00 0.39 -1.17 -1.37 2.77 1.85 PRIMARY METALS................ 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.7 16.4 17.7 18.0 17.8 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.51 1.12 2.46 0.94 -0.37 -0.92 -1.48 -2.97 -4.84 -6.34 -8.05 3.90 1.50 -1.43 FABRICATED METALS............. 46.6 46.6 47.2 48.0 47.6 47.5 47.3 47.0 46.3 45.8 45.4 45.4 47.1 47.4 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.94 3.33 4.34 3.38 2.29 1.86 0.14 -1.95 -2.87 -3.51 -4.09 3.73 3.75 0.57 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY....... 48.8 49.1 49.3 50.8 51.7 51.7 51.2 51.7 51.0 49.6 47.7 47.2 49.5 51.6 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.65 2.72 6.86 5.69 5.94 5.29 3.92 1.77 -1.42 -4.06 -6.96 3.99 4.96 4.21 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.......... 41.0 41.4 41.7 41.5 40.6 41.0 40.4 39.4 38.6 38.2 37.7 40.4 41.4 40.3 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.10 3.42 2.71 0.40 -0.98 -0.89 -3.19 -5.14 -5.01 -6.75 -6.68 0.73 2.39 -2.56 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT...... 53.9 54.7 54.9 55.5 55.5 55.1 55.1 55.2 54.3 54.1 53.1 53.5 54.8 55.2 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.68 1.80 4.11 4.59 3.03 0.73 0.30 -0.48 -2.22 -1.93 -3.57 0.09 2.43 0.88 INSTRUMENTS................... 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.2 10.8 10.8 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.85 -4.14 -4.14 -2.45 0.00 0.00 -0.62 0.31 -1.23 -0.93 -0.31 1.82 -3.65 -0.08 MISCELLANEOUS................. 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.1 10.9 10.8 10.6 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.82 -0.60 0.00 -0.94 -0.93 -3.90 -2.75 -0.32 -1.88 -1.56 -4.40 -3.67 -0.84 -2.00 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 7: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT THOUSANDS OF JOBS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.......... 211.4 211.4 211.4 209.5 206.1 207.3 207.2 205.6 202.6 201.2 200.8 222.0 210.9 206.6 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -6.80 -6.18 -3.54 -3.28 -2.49 -1.92 -1.99 -1.85 -1.70 -2.97 -3.10 -3.18 -4.98 -2.06 FOOD.......................... 37.7 38.0 38.8 38.9 38.9 39.4 39.8 39.9 39.9 40.3 40.6 37.3 38.4 39.5 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.48 1.51 3.28 2.55 3.09 3.60 2.66 2.57 2.66 2.46 2.01 4.14 2.70 2.98 TOBACCO....................... 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.56 -8.82 -9.09 -8.82 -5.26 6.45 0.00 0.00 -8.33 -6.06 0.00 4.48 -7.14 0.00 TEXTILES...................... 16.4 16.5 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.1 17.6 16.2 15.6 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -9.71 -7.84 -7.87 -5.75 -4.67 -4.05 -2.29 -2.32 -4.47 -8.02 -9.59 -5.39 -7.83 -3.35 APPAREL....................... 27.8 26.5 25.5 24.5 23.0 22.3 21.6 21.0 20.2 19.7 19.2 33.1 26.1 22.0 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -23.93 -24.41 -18.53 -17.12 -17.29 -16.08 -15.16 -14.54 -12.05 -11.53 -11.40 -13.29 -21.26 -15.81 PAPER......................... 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.0 21.4 21.7 22.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 22.0 21.9 22.1 21.7 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.46 1.37 1.80 1.23 -1.54 -2.11 -2.22 -1.67 -1.25 -1.08 -0.15 -0.64 0.99 -1.88 PRINTING AND PUBLISHING....... 38.3 38.5 39.0 38.6 38.0 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.2 37.7 37.7 39.3 38.6 38.4 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.38 -2.20 -0.76 -2.36 -0.61 0.17 -1.20 -0.35 0.35 -2.16 -1.99 1.81 -1.93 -0.50 CHEMICALS..................... 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 32.6 29.7 28.5 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -12.04 -10.58 -7.39 -5.49 -4.89 -4.24 -3.71 -2.51 0.00 -1.05 -1.28 -8.70 -8.97 -3.85 PETROLEUM REFINING............ 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.33 3.12 0.00 0.00 13.79 18.18 18.18 22.58 18.18 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 18.25 RUBBER AND PLASTICS........... 34.2 34.6 34.7 35.0 35.3 35.5 35.7 35.4 34.5 33.8 33.6 34.5 34.6 35.5 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.01 -0.48 2.26 1.55 3.22 2.70 2.79 0.95 -2.27 -4.97 -5.70 0.75 0.31 2.41 LEATHER....................... 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -8.74 -6.00 -6.93 -3.06 0.00 -1.06 -3.19 -8.42 -7.45 -3.23 -2.20 -12.04 -6.22 -3.18 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 8: TENNESSEE NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 2663.5 2676.4 2692.0 2705.5 2725.4 2733.3 2749.3 2750.6 2750.6 2757.8 2758.8 2637.2 2684.4 2739.7 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.22 1.95 2.36 2.02 2.97 1.16 2.36 0.19 0.00 1.05 0.14 2.06 1.79 2.06 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.76 1.64 1.87 1.89 2.32 2.13 2.13 1.67 0.93 0.90 0.35 2.06 1.79 2.06 MINING........................ 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.98 6.50 -11.93 0.00 -3.19 6.66 -9.26 -15.41 -4.95 -0.97 -2.73 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.27 0.78 0.00 -2.33 -0.78 -3.88 -3.88 -2.38 -2.34 -1.61 -5.65 -4.95 -0.97 -2.73 CONSTRUCTION.................. 121.7 124.0 124.1 125.1 128.3 126.4 126.3 126.8 131.8 130.1 129.0 121.0 123.7 126.9 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.41 7.77 0.11 3.26 10.75 -5.79 -0.42 1.70 16.61 -4.96 -3.24 2.59 2.29 2.60 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.01 2.37 2.39 2.37 5.39 1.91 1.77 1.39 2.70 2.93 2.19 2.59 2.29 2.60 MANUFACTURING................. 509.0 509.2 512.9 511.7 510.3 510.2 510.5 504.8 496.8 491.3 486.6 514.3 510.7 508.9 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.09 0.18 2.91 -0.96 -1.06 -0.08 0.26 -4.44 -6.19 -4.33 -3.75 -0.65 -0.70 -0.34 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.95 -1.56 0.50 0.25 0.26 0.19 -0.46 -1.35 -2.65 -3.70 -4.68 -0.65 -0.70 -0.34 DURABLE GOODS............... 296.2 298.4 302.5 302.6 302.8 302.8 303.1 299.5 293.5 290.0 285.9 292.5 299.9 302.1 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.38 2.91 5.70 0.13 0.22 0.04 0.31 -4.58 -7.82 -4.69 -5.54 1.42 2.54 0.71 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.86 1.99 3.56 2.76 2.22 1.50 0.18 -1.02 -3.07 -4.24 -5.66 1.42 2.54 0.71 NONDURABLE GOODS............ 212.8 210.9 210.4 209.0 207.5 207.4 207.5 205.2 203.3 201.3 200.7 221.8 210.8 206.9 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -5.68 -3.52 -0.95 -2.51 -2.90 -0.26 0.19 -4.24 -3.78 -3.81 -1.12 -3.25 -4.98 -1.83 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -6.80 -6.18 -3.60 -3.18 -2.48 -1.66 -1.38 -1.82 -2.04 -2.93 -3.25 -3.25 -4.98 -1.83 TRADE......................... 626.7 627.3 632.0 635.9 639.2 642.6 646.4 650.9 653.5 656.3 657.6 620.1 630.5 644.8 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.46 0.38 3.07 2.47 2.07 2.14 2.39 2.86 1.61 1.70 0.82 1.59 1.66 2.27 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.70 1.26 1.60 2.09 1.99 2.44 2.27 2.36 2.25 2.14 1.74 1.59 1.66 2.27 SERVICES...................... 711.3 718.0 724.9 731.8 736.9 740.4 751.8 755.2 752.9 761.3 768.5 702.9 721.5 746.1 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.61 3.78 3.90 3.90 2.80 1.90 6.34 1.79 -1.20 4.54 3.82 3.04 2.65 3.40 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.00 2.39 2.89 3.29 3.59 3.12 3.72 3.19 2.17 2.83 2.21 3.04 2.65 3.40 FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 130.8 131.4 131.5 131.0 131.4 131.0 131.3 131.3 130.5 130.8 130.6 126.7 131.2 131.2 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.44 1.85 0.20 -1.31 1.12 -1.31 0.92 0.00 -2.42 1.03 -0.61 5.48 3.51 0.04 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 6.11 4.62 2.95 0.54 0.46 -0.33 -0.15 0.18 -0.71 -0.13 -0.51 5.48 3.51 0.04 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 170.2 172.3 173.1 174.6 176.1 178.4 178.7 179.0 181.3 182.6 181.5 162.2 172.6 178.1 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 6.35 5.03 1.79 3.67 3.48 5.17 0.82 0.52 5.32 2.90 -2.46 7.62 6.37 3.19 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 8.57 7.73 5.17 4.20 3.49 3.52 3.27 2.48 2.93 2.37 1.53 7.62 6.37 3.19 GOVERNMENT.................... 389.5 389.9 389.3 391.2 398.9 400.3 400.2 398.6 399.7 401.4 401.1 385.6 390.0 399.5 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.21 0.45 -0.58 1.93 8.14 1.38 -0.13 -1.52 1.11 1.64 -0.30 1.35 1.13 2.44 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.22 1.47 0.37 0.50 2.43 2.67 2.78 1.90 0.20 0.27 0.22 1.35 1.13 2.44 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 51.3 51.4 51.1 51.1 52.1 57.2 56.5 54.1 53.9 54.4 54.8 50.8 51.2 55.0 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -6.96 1.04 -2.82 0.00 8.07 45.66 -4.58 -16.34 -1.23 4.02 2.47 -1.98 0.75 7.32 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.99 1.78 1.59 -2.23 1.49 11.21 10.70 5.87 3.52 -4.84 -3.12 -1.98 0.75 7.32 STATE AND LOCAL............. 338.2 338.5 338.3 340.1 346.9 343.1 343.6 344.6 345.8 346.9 346.3 334.8 338.8 344.5 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.35 0.36 -0.24 2.23 8.16 -4.27 0.62 1.09 1.48 1.28 -0.73 1.88 1.19 1.71 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.26 1.43 0.19 0.92 2.57 1.37 1.59 1.30 -0.30 1.12 0.78 1.88 1.19 1.71 STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 9: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL DURABLE GOODS............. 296.2 298.4 302.5 302.6 302.8 302.8 303.1 299.5 293.5 290.0 285.9 292.5 299.9 302.1 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.38 2.91 5.70 0.13 0.22 0.04 0.31 -4.58 -7.82 -4.69 -5.54 1.42 2.54 0.71 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.86 1.99 3.56 2.76 2.22 1.50 0.18 -1.02 -3.07 -4.24 -5.66 1.42 2.54 0.71 LUMBER AND WOOD............... 23.9 23.4 23.8 23.7 24.0 24.1 24.1 23.8 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.7 24.0 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 8.22 -7.07 7.00 -1.67 4.57 2.24 -0.55 -5.42 -10.76 -3.98 2.95 3.12 2.41 1.19 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.07 1.15 3.03 1.42 0.56 2.99 1.12 0.14 -3.75 -5.25 -4.43 3.12 2.41 1.19 FURNITURE AND FIXTURES........ 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.1 24.1 27.0 27.4 27.2 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.42 3.49 5.98 -3.79 0.00 -1.45 -0.49 -8.50 -11.90 -12.26 -14.08 -1.40 1.42 -0.67 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.00 1.23 3.74 0.73 1.35 0.12 -1.44 -2.67 -5.70 -8.40 -11.71 -1.40 1.42 -0.67 STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.......... 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 16.8 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.2 16.6 17.0 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 4.20 7.57 4.91 2.40 4.82 -6.09 4.84 -0.78 0.79 -3.86 0.00 -1.52 2.67 2.05 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.20 2.26 3.92 4.75 4.91 1.41 1.39 0.59 -0.39 0.20 -0.98 -1.52 2.67 2.05 PRIMARY METALS................ 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.4 16.9 16.7 16.4 17.7 18.0 17.8 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.27 2.25 2.24 -2.91 -2.21 0.00 1.50 -11.38 -10.30 -6.15 -6.25 3.65 1.50 -1.25 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.51 1.12 2.45 0.94 -0.19 -0.74 -0.92 -3.15 -5.22 -6.72 -8.55 3.65 1.50 -1.25 FABRICATED METALS............. 46.4 46.8 47.3 47.5 47.6 47.7 47.4 46.7 46.3 45.9 45.4 45.3 47.0 47.4 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.52 3.49 4.34 1.99 0.28 1.13 -2.22 -5.77 -3.66 -3.13 -4.56 3.54 3.69 0.74 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.96 3.39 4.11 3.33 2.51 1.92 0.28 -1.68 -2.66 -3.70 -4.29 3.54 3.69 0.74 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY....... 47.9 48.7 50.5 51.0 50.9 51.3 51.9 52.1 50.3 49.1 48.6 47.2 49.5 51.5 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -4.86 6.85 15.32 4.29 -0.78 3.18 5.03 1.03 -12.90 -8.96 -4.53 4.16 4.89 4.11 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 4.89 3.03 6.47 5.15 6.26 5.34 2.91 2.09 -1.18 -4.22 -6.48 4.16 4.89 4.11 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.......... 41.4 41.6 41.6 41.1 41.0 41.2 40.3 39.4 38.7 38.1 37.5 40.5 41.4 40.5 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.96 2.28 -0.32 -4.42 -0.65 1.96 -9.05 -8.02 -7.23 -6.06 -6.15 0.66 2.37 -2.21 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.16 3.23 2.80 0.33 -0.81 -0.88 -3.13 -4.06 -5.69 -7.60 -6.87 0.66 2.37 -2.21 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT...... 53.8 54.3 55.1 55.5 55.3 55.1 55.7 55.1 54.1 54.3 53.2 53.3 54.7 55.3 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 7.80 3.94 6.27 3.02 -1.34 -1.49 3.94 -4.04 -7.15 1.55 -7.64 -0.05 2.52 1.16 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.71 1.75 3.87 5.24 2.93 1.56 1.00 -0.78 -2.27 -1.53 -4.39 -0.05 2.52 1.16 INSTRUMENTS................... 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 11.1 10.7 10.8 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -4.77 -4.43 2.58 -0.43 3.29 -3.37 1.20 -1.05 -1.98 -0.30 -1.17 1.68 -3.59 0.20 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.99 -4.19 -4.34 -1.81 0.21 0.48 0.14 -0.01 -1.32 -0.54 -1.13 1.68 -3.59 0.20 MISCELLANEOUS................. 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.9 10.8 10.6 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 3.78 3.74 -2.42 -7.16 1.26 -6.09 2.56 -1.25 -3.73 -2.52 -9.87 -3.96 -0.76 -2.08 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -1.81 -0.61 0.00 -0.62 -1.23 -3.66 -2.45 -0.94 -2.18 -1.27 -4.40 -3.96 -0.76 -2.08 STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 10: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT THOUSANDS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOBS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.......... 212.8 210.9 210.4 209.0 207.5 207.4 207.5 205.2 203.3 201.3 200.7 221.8 210.8 206.9 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -5.68 -3.52 -0.95 -2.51 -2.90 -0.26 0.19 -4.24 -3.78 -3.81 -1.12 -3.25 -4.98 -1.83 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -6.80 -6.18 -3.60 -3.18 -2.48 -1.66 -1.38 -1.82 -2.04 -2.93 -3.25 -3.25 -4.98 -1.83 FOOD.......................... 38.0 38.0 38.4 38.8 39.2 39.4 39.9 39.8 40.1 40.4 40.6 37.3 38.3 39.6 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.13 0.35 4.27 3.51 4.55 2.06 4.82 -0.33 3.05 2.35 2.00 4.02 2.63 3.31 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.45 1.42 3.13 2.56 3.16 3.59 3.73 2.75 2.38 2.45 1.76 4.02 2.63 3.31 TOBACCO....................... 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 12.68 -11.26 0.00 -22.13 13.54 27.44 -30.89 0.00 0.00 13.54 0.00 5.26 -6.43 -2.29 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.86 -8.33 -8.33 -6.06 -5.88 3.03 -6.06 0.00 -3.13 -5.88 3.23 5.26 -6.43 -2.29 TEXTILES...................... 16.5 16.3 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.1 14.4 14.2 17.6 16.2 15.6 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -11.26 -3.98 -8.68 -1.66 -4.13 -1.68 -1.69 -3.38 -9.95 -15.78 -7.19 -5.42 -8.10 -3.45 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -9.67 -7.89 -8.24 -6.47 -4.65 -4.08 -2.30 -2.73 -4.24 -7.87 -9.19 -5.42 -8.10 -3.45 APPAREL....................... 27.8 26.2 25.7 24.4 23.2 22.2 22.0 20.8 20.4 19.6 19.4 33.0 26.0 22.0 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -19.67 -21.49 -7.42 -18.30 -18.71 -16.16 -3.56 -20.10 -7.47 -15.37 -4.03 -13.49 -21.13 -15.33 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -23.95 -24.71 -17.80 -16.89 -16.65 -15.27 -14.40 -14.87 -12.07 -11.86 -11.97 -13.49 -21.13 -15.33 PAPER......................... 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.1 21.7 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 10.22 -1.20 -0.60 -1.80 -4.18 -0.61 1.23 -2.42 -5.42 4.44 4.39 -0.72 1.03 -1.66 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -0.60 1.37 1.84 1.54 -1.95 -1.81 -1.36 -1.52 -1.84 -0.61 0.15 -0.72 1.03 -1.66 PRINTING AND PUBLISHING....... 38.5 38.6 38.7 38.4 38.3 38.8 38.6 38.4 38.1 37.8 37.8 39.3 38.6 38.5 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.21 1.04 1.39 -3.06 -1.04 4.60 -2.05 -1.72 -3.43 -2.43 -0.70 1.83 -1.95 -0.13 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.37 -2.20 -0.94 -2.29 -0.43 0.43 -0.43 -0.09 -0.70 -2.41 -2.07 1.83 -1.95 -0.13 CHEMICALS..................... 30.2 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 32.6 29.7 28.6 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -9.00 -5.50 -2.61 -4.47 -8.28 -0.49 0.16 -1.02 0.13 -2.68 -2.57 -8.71 -8.97 -3.77 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -11.95 -10.49 -7.62 -5.42 -5.24 -4.00 -3.33 -2.47 -0.30 -0.86 -1.54 -8.71 -8.97 -3.77 PETROLEUM REFINING............ 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 0.00 28.41 -22.13 13.54 60.18 24.14 0.00 10.95 34.51 -25.65 -9.87 0.00 0.79 18.90 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -3.13 3.12 0.00 3.23 16.13 15.15 22.58 21.87 16.67 2.63 0.00 0.00 0.79 18.90 RUBBER AND PLASTICS........... 34.3 34.5 34.6 35.0 35.3 35.5 35.7 35.3 34.4 33.8 33.6 34.5 34.6 35.5 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -2.45 2.64 1.90 4.33 2.98 2.69 2.52 -4.34 -10.60 -6.15 -2.53 0.74 0.31 2.49 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.01 -0.33 2.08 1.57 2.96 2.97 3.13 0.92 -2.59 -4.76 -5.95 0.74 0.31 2.49 LEATHER....................... 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.08 0.00 -4.19 8.88 -4.14 0.00 -12.17 -16.46 4.68 9.41 -4.37 -12.66 -6.00 -2.66 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -9.62 -6.00 -7.00 -1.04 0.00 0.00 -2.15 -8.42 -6.38 -4.26 -2.20 -12.66 -6.00 -2.66 STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY....... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 11: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR 1996 DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 28647 28566 28686 28426 28937 28648 28719 28590 29450 29243 29156 28012 28581 28724 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.25 2.12 2.29 1.47 1.01 0.29 0.12 0.58 1.77 2.08 1.52 3.30 2.03 0.50 MINING........................ 43777 40670 43297 41480 38705 44548 40401 38711 39300 39838 42538 45376 42306 40591 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -11.42 -6.83 2.91 -10.52 -11.59 9.54 -6.69 -6.67 1.54 -10.57 5.29 5.69 -6.76 -4.05 CONSTRUCTION.................. 33610 32024 31327 32534 34289 32196 30966 31691 32981 30663 30347 31217 32374 32286 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.18 5.29 2.85 2.52 2.02 0.54 -1.15 -2.59 -3.81 -4.76 -2.00 3.51 3.70 -0.27 MANUFACTURING................. 32639 33033 33667 33699 32916 33338 33462 33797 34327 34490 34830 32326 33259 33378 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.38 2.28 2.91 3.96 0.85 0.92 -0.61 0.29 4.29 3.46 4.09 2.04 2.89 0.36 DURABLE GOODS............... 33238 33633 34330 34308 33081 33693 33808 34522 34269 34439 35274 32967 33877 33776 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.34 2.55 3.14 4.01 -0.47 0.18 -1.52 0.62 3.59 2.21 4.34 1.09 2.76 -0.30 NONDURABLE GOODS............ 31799 32182 32721 32816 32673 32818 32958 32741 34411 34564 34200 31483 32379 32798 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.58 1.71 2.39 3.73 2.75 1.98 0.73 -0.23 5.32 5.32 3.77 3.21 2.85 1.29 TRADE......................... 22563 22619 22148 21752 22591 21933 22118 21696 22530 22268 22595 21561 22271 22085 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.09 4.73 2.91 1.41 0.12 -3.03 -0.14 -0.26 -0.27 1.53 2.16 4.69 3.29 -0.84 SERVICES...................... 27723 27020 26871 26956 28230 27489 26901 27219 29218 28866 27451 26861 27142 27460 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.82 1.17 0.93 0.26 1.83 1.74 0.11 0.98 3.50 5.01 2.04 3.75 1.05 1.17 FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 37165 39275 38742 39781 38954 40750 42310 41743 39675 40146 42295 38837 38741 40939 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -2.06 0.06 0.78 0.19 4.81 3.76 9.21 4.93 1.85 -1.48 -0.04 6.80 -0.25 5.67 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 36030 35876 36935 35554 36153 35766 35955 36735 36303 35667 34919 35340 36099 36152 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.58 1.64 5.91 0.53 0.34 -0.31 -2.66 3.32 0.41 -0.28 -2.88 1.15 2.15 0.15 GOVERNMENT.................... 27055 27056 28025 26917 26973 27153 28218 27001 27368 27862 28908 26917 27263 27336 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.51 0.04 1.26 1.37 -0.31 0.36 0.69 0.31 1.47 2.61 2.44 1.81 1.29 0.27 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 42840 42023 42469 42431 42363 40062 41899 43109 44016 44140 45201 42281 42441 41858 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.49 -0.49 -0.90 1.44 -1.11 -4.67 -1.34 1.60 3.90 10.18 7.88 2.68 0.38 -1.37 STATE AND LOCAL............. 24684 24762 25793 24640 24684 24972 25905 24548 24789 25263 26266 24583 24970 25027 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.81 0.15 1.72 1.64 0.00 0.85 0.43 -0.37 0.43 1.16 1.40 1.94 1.57 0.23 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 12: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1996 DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 28270 28638 28753 28701 28548 28697 28705 28847 29133 29272 29158 28024 28591 28699 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -0.62 5.32 1.61 -0.72 -2.12 2.11 0.11 1.99 4.02 1.93 -1.55 3.35 2.02 0.38 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.25 2.11 2.36 1.37 0.98 0.20 -0.17 0.51 2.05 2.00 1.58 3.35 2.02 0.38 MINING........................ 42759 40985 44304 41480 37797 44907 41053 38711 38671 40164 43629 45514 42382 40617 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -29.83 -15.59 36.54 -23.16 -31.06 99.25 -30.16 -20.93 -0.41 16.36 39.23 5.84 -6.88 -4.16 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -11.47 -6.83 2.91 -11.21 -11.60 9.57 -7.34 -6.67 2.31 -10.56 6.28 5.84 -6.88 -4.16 CONSTRUCTION.................. 31853 32325 32353 32629 32623 32535 31988 32050 31204 30930 31342 31184 32290 32299 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.95 6.06 0.36 3.45 -0.08 -1.07 -6.56 0.77 -10.15 -3.45 5.43 3.37 3.55 0.03 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.42 5.27 2.66 1.93 2.42 0.65 -1.13 -1.78 -4.35 -4.93 -2.02 3.37 3.55 0.03 MANUFACTURING................. 32575 33128 33678 33760 32834 33366 33355 33815 34308 34534 34780 32353 33285 33342 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.95 6.97 6.81 0.98 -10.53 6.64 -0.14 5.63 5.97 2.66 2.88 2.14 2.88 0.17 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.38 2.25 2.99 3.88 0.80 0.72 -0.96 0.16 4.49 3.50 4.27 2.14 2.88 0.17 DURABLE GOODS............... 33282 33739 34228 34365 33095 33745 33652 34510 34315 34530 35180 32994 33903 33750 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.75 5.60 5.93 1.61 -13.98 8.09 -1.10 10.60 -2.24 2.52 7.75 1.20 2.76 -0.45 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.30 2.49 3.26 3.96 -0.56 0.02 -1.68 0.42 3.69 2.33 4.54 1.20 2.76 -0.45 NONDURABLE GOODS............ 31589 32263 32887 32885 32453 32813 32921 32800 34298 34541 34212 31513 32406 32747 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.82 8.81 7.96 -0.03 -5.15 4.52 1.32 -1.47 19.56 2.86 -3.76 3.30 2.84 1.05 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.58 1.72 2.45 3.62 2.73 1.70 0.10 -0.26 5.69 5.27 3.92 3.30 2.84 1.05 TRADE......................... 22129 22577 22206 22199 22165 21896 22158 22116 22109 22191 22665 21571 22278 22084 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.34 8.35 -6.43 -0.12 -0.60 -4.78 4.88 -0.75 -0.14 1.51 8.82 4.79 3.28 -0.87 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.09 4.71 2.96 1.38 0.16 -3.02 -0.21 -0.37 -0.26 1.35 2.29 4.79 3.28 -0.87 SERVICES...................... 27120 27189 27213 27081 27574 27643 27078 27313 28790 29011 27633 26875 27151 27402 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 1.03 1.03 0.36 -1.93 7.47 1.02 -7.93 3.51 23.45 3.10 -17.68 3.79 1.03 0.93 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.80 1.18 1.02 0.11 1.67 1.67 -0.50 0.86 4.41 4.95 2.05 3.79 1.03 0.93 FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 36872 39354 39017 39720 38668 40802 42482 41701 39472 40197 42543 38841 38741 40913 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -25.79 29.78 -3.39 7.41 -10.19 23.97 17.51 -7.15 -19.72 7.55 25.47 6.83 -0.26 5.61 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -1.99 0.07 0.84 -0.02 4.87 3.68 8.88 4.99 2.08 -1.48 0.14 6.83 -0.26 5.61 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 35536 35744 37135 35860 35661 35706 36102 36913 35929 35700 34977 35339 36069 36095 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -2.57 2.36 16.50 -13.04 -2.20 0.51 4.51 9.29 -10.24 -2.53 -7.86 1.10 2.07 0.07 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 0.57 1.67 5.81 0.26 0.35 -0.11 -2.78 2.94 0.75 -0.02 -3.12 1.10 2.07 0.07 GOVERNMENT.................... 27280 27135 27252 27405 27207 27150 27419 27477 27614 27797 28072 26905 27268 27313 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.19 -2.11 1.75 2.26 -2.86 -0.83 4.01 0.86 2.01 2.68 4.01 1.83 1.35 0.17 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.52 0.03 1.38 1.49 -0.27 0.06 0.61 0.26 1.50 2.38 2.38 1.83 1.35 0.17 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 42840 42459 42137 42348 42391 40506 41677 42737 44179 44708 44843 42282 42446 41827 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 12.04 -3.52 -3.00 2.02 0.41 -16.63 12.07 10.57 14.20 4.87 1.22 2.81 0.39 -1.46 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.49 -0.57 -1.02 1.70 -1.05 -4.60 -1.09 0.92 4.22 10.37 7.60 2.81 0.39 -1.46 STATE AND LOCAL............. 24920 24806 25005 25162 24928 24924 25073 25083 25033 25144 25419 24571 24973 25002 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 3.05 -1.81 3.25 2.52 -3.67 -0.07 2.42 0.16 -0.80 1.79 4.45 1.95 1.64 0.11 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.82 0.15 1.87 1.73 0.03 0.47 0.27 -0.31 0.42 0.88 1.38 1.95 1.64 0.11 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 13: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR CURRENT DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 29759 29825 30115 30023 30862 30714 30973 30983 32167 32048 31922 28861 29930 30883 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.55 3.69 4.08 3.50 3.71 2.98 2.85 3.20 4.23 4.34 3.06 4.40 3.71 3.18 MINING........................ 45476 42462 45455 43810 41280 47760 43571 41951 42927 43659 46573 46748 44300 43641 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -10.30 -5.40 4.71 -8.73 -9.23 12.48 -4.14 -4.24 3.99 -8.59 6.89 6.82 -5.23 -1.49 CONSTRUCTION.................. 34915 33435 32888 34361 36570 34517 33396 34344 36024 33604 33225 32163 33899 34707 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.50 6.90 4.64 4.58 4.74 3.24 1.55 -0.05 -1.49 -2.64 -0.51 4.61 5.40 2.38 MANUFACTURING................. 33906 34488 35344 35591 35106 35742 36088 36625 37494 37798 38135 33307 34832 35890 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.68 3.85 4.71 6.04 3.54 3.64 2.10 2.91 6.80 5.75 5.67 3.13 4.58 3.04 DURABLE GOODS............... 34527 35115 36040 36235 35282 36123 36461 37411 37431 37742 38620 33967 35480 36319 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.62 4.12 4.95 6.09 2.18 2.87 1.17 3.24 6.09 4.48 5.92 2.17 4.45 2.37 NONDURABLE GOODS............ 33033 33600 34351 34659 34847 35185 35544 35482 37586 37879 37444 32439 33911 35265 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.90 3.28 4.18 5.81 5.49 4.72 3.47 2.37 7.86 7.66 5.35 4.31 4.54 3.99 TRADE......................... 23438 23616 23252 22973 24094 23515 23854 23512 24609 24404 24739 22214 23320 23744 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.41 6.34 4.71 3.44 2.80 -0.43 2.59 2.34 2.14 3.78 3.71 5.80 4.98 1.82 SERVICES...................... 28799 28210 28210 28470 30108 29471 29012 29497 31914 31635 30055 27675 28422 29522 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.11 2.73 2.70 2.27 4.55 4.47 2.84 3.61 6.00 7.34 3.60 4.86 2.70 3.87 FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 38608 41005 40672 42015 41546 43688 45630 45236 43336 43996 46307 40016 40575 44025 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.82 1.59 2.54 2.20 7.61 6.54 12.19 7.67 4.31 0.70 1.48 7.95 1.40 8.50 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 37429 37456 38776 37551 38559 38345 38776 39809 39653 39088 38232 36411 37803 38872 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.86 3.20 7.76 2.54 3.02 2.37 0.00 6.01 2.84 1.94 -1.40 2.22 3.82 2.83 GOVERNMENT.................... 28105 28248 29422 28428 28767 29111 30432 29260 29893 30534 31650 27733 28551 29393 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.81 1.58 3.03 3.41 2.36 3.05 3.43 2.93 3.91 4.89 4.00 2.89 2.95 2.95 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 44503 43874 44586 44814 45182 42951 45187 46716 48078 48374 49489 43563 44444 45009 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.78 1.04 0.83 3.48 1.53 -2.10 1.35 4.25 6.41 12.63 9.52 3.78 2.02 1.27 STATE AND LOCAL............. 25641 25853 27079 26024 26326 26773 27937 26603 27076 27686 28758 25329 26149 26910 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.11 1.69 3.50 3.68 2.67 3.56 3.17 2.22 2.85 3.41 2.94 3.03 3.24 2.91 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 14: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CURRENT DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL........... 29367 29900 30186 30313 30447 30766 30958 31261 31821 32080 31924 28875 29942 30858 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 0.70 7.46 3.88 1.69 1.78 4.26 2.51 3.97 7.36 3.29 -1.92 4.45 3.69 3.06 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.55 3.68 4.15 3.40 3.68 2.90 2.56 3.13 4.51 4.27 3.12 4.45 3.69 3.06 MINING........................ 44419 42791 46512 43810 40313 48145 44274 41951 42240 44016 47768 46893 44383 43671 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -28.90 -13.87 39.59 -21.29 -28.31 103.45 -28.49 -19.39 2.78 17.91 38.70 6.97 -5.35 -1.60 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -10.35 -5.40 4.71 -9.43 -9.24 12.51 -4.81 -4.24 4.78 -8.58 7.89 6.97 -5.35 -1.60 CONSTRUCTION.................. 33089 33749 33966 34462 34793 34881 34498 34732 34083 33897 34316 32132 33816 34726 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -0.66 8.22 2.59 5.97 3.91 1.01 -4.32 2.73 -7.27 -2.16 5.03 4.47 5.24 2.69 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.75 6.88 4.45 3.98 5.15 3.36 1.57 0.78 -2.04 -2.82 -0.53 4.47 5.24 2.69 MANUFACTURING................. 33839 34587 35356 35656 35019 35772 35972 36645 37474 37847 38080 33335 34860 35852 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.29 9.14 9.19 3.44 -6.96 8.89 2.25 7.69 9.37 4.03 2.49 3.23 4.57 2.85 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.68 3.82 4.79 5.97 3.49 3.43 1.74 2.77 7.01 5.80 5.86 3.23 4.57 2.85 DURABLE GOODS............... 34574 35225 35933 36295 35297 36178 36292 37398 37482 37841 38517 33995 35507 36292 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.11 7.75 8.29 4.09 -10.55 10.36 1.27 12.76 0.90 3.89 7.33 2.28 4.45 2.21 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.58 4.07 5.07 6.04 2.09 2.71 1.00 3.04 6.19 4.60 6.13 2.28 4.45 2.21 NONDURABLE GOODS............ 32815 33685 34525 34731 34612 35179 35504 35545 37463 37854 37457 32469 33939 35210 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -0.52 11.03 10.36 2.41 -1.37 6.72 3.75 0.46 23.40 4.24 -4.13 4.40 4.53 3.74 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 4.90 3.28 4.24 5.70 5.48 4.44 2.84 2.34 8.24 7.60 5.50 4.40 4.53 3.74 TRADE......................... 22988 23572 23312 23446 23640 23475 23897 23967 24149 24320 24815 22226 23329 23745 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.72 10.55 -4.34 2.31 3.36 -2.77 7.39 1.18 3.07 2.86 8.40 5.90 4.96 1.78 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 5.41 6.32 4.76 3.42 2.84 -0.41 2.51 2.22 2.15 3.60 3.84 5.90 4.96 1.78 SERVICES...................... 28172 28387 28569 28602 29408 29637 29203 29599 31446 31793 30254 27691 28433 29462 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 2.36 3.08 2.59 0.46 11.76 3.14 -5.72 5.53 27.41 4.48 -18.00 4.90 2.68 3.62 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.09 2.74 2.79 2.12 4.39 4.40 2.22 3.48 6.93 7.28 3.60 4.90 2.68 3.62 FIN,INS,REAL EST.............. 38303 41088 40961 41951 41240 43744 45815 45190 43114 44052 46579 40021 40576 43998 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -24.81 32.42 -1.23 10.03 -6.61 26.58 20.33 -5.34 -17.15 8.99 24.99 7.97 1.39 8.43 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... -0.75 1.61 2.60 1.99 7.67 6.46 11.85 7.72 4.54 0.70 1.67 7.97 1.39 8.43 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL........... 36915 37319 38985 37874 38034 38281 38935 40002 39244 39124 38295 36411 37773 38813 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... -1.28 4.44 19.09 -10.92 1.70 2.62 7.02 11.42 -7.36 -1.22 -8.21 2.17 3.74 2.75 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 1.85 3.23 7.66 2.27 3.03 2.58 -0.13 5.62 3.18 2.20 -1.64 2.17 3.74 2.75 GOVERNMENT.................... 28339 28330 28610 28944 29017 29108 29570 29777 30163 30463 30734 27721 28556 29368 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 5.56 -0.12 4.01 4.75 1.01 1.26 6.50 2.82 5.29 4.05 3.61 2.92 3.01 2.84 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 3.82 1.56 3.15 3.53 2.39 2.75 3.35 2.88 3.95 4.66 3.94 2.92 3.01 2.84 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............ 44503 44329 44236 44726 45211 43427 44947 46313 48256 48996 49097 43563 44449 44974 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 13.52 -1.55 -0.84 4.50 4.41 -14.88 14.76 12.72 17.87 6.27 0.83 3.90 2.03 1.18 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR.... 2.78 0.95 0.71 3.74 1.59 -2.04 1.61 3.55 6.73 12.82 9.23 3.90 2.03 1.18 STATE AND LOCAL............. 25887 25899 26251 26575 26587 26721 27040 27182 27343 27556 27830 25317 26153 26883 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR....... 4.41 0.19 5.55 5.02 0.18 2.04 4.87 2.11 2.39 3.15 4.05 3.04 3.30 2.79 % CHG SAVE QTR LAST YR.... 4.12 1.69 3.65 3.77 2.70 3.17 3.01 2.28 2.84 3.12 2.92 3.04 3.30 2.79 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 15: TENNESSEE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS).... 2784 2815 2849 2815 2744 2766 2824 2859 2833 2859 2893 2760 2816 2798 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.41 2.72 1.88 0.18 -1.43 -1.71 -0.89 1.58 3.26 3.35 2.45 1.79 2.03 -0.61 EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)...... 2657 2707 2732 2713 2633 2664 2709 2747 2706 2745 2772 2644 2702 2688 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.73 2.87 1.93 0.40 -0.92 -1.57 -0.85 1.26 2.79 3.02 2.33 3.08 2.21 -0.52 UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS).... 127 108 118 101 111 102 116 112 127 114 122 116 113 110 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.85 -0.85 0.69 -5.23 -12.11 -5.19 -1.97 10.30 14.41 12.07 5.34 -20.87 -2.04 -2.82 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT).... 65.0 65.6 63.9 62.9 61.1 61.5 62.7 63.2 62.5 62.8 63.5 64.9 64.4 62.1 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.31 1.65 -2.73 -4.40 -5.98 -6.30 -1.94 0.49 2.15 2.24 1.35 0.64 -0.83 -3.48 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)..... 4.5 3.8 4.1 3.6 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 16: TENNESSEE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS).... 2815 2823 2823 2800 2776 2776 2797 2844 2865 2869 2868 2759 2815 2798 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.85 1.17 -0.09 -3.17 -3.45 0.01 3.11 6.94 2.96 0.50 -0.18 1.74 2.03 -0.61 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.39 2.73 1.89 0.17 -1.40 -1.69 -0.91 1.58 3.23 3.35 2.52 1.74 2.03 -0.61 EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)...... 2697 2710 2710 2692 2673 2667 2687 2725 2746 2748 2751 2644 2702 2688 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 2.47 1.80 0.07 -2.70 -2.72 -0.85 2.95 5.89 3.11 0.24 0.41 3.03 2.21 -0.52 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.68 2.87 1.94 0.39 -0.91 -1.56 -0.86 1.26 2.75 3.03 2.39 3.03 2.21 -0.52 UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS).... 118 114 113 109 103 108 110 119 119 121 117 116 113 110 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 12.05 -12.61 -3.70 -14.01 -20.14 24.37 7.23 34.94 -0.28 6.79 -12.97 -20.92 -2.01 -2.80 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... -2.82 -0.57 0.55 -5.11 -12.81 -4.77 -2.18 9.49 15.74 11.41 5.75 -20.92 -2.01 -2.80 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT).... 65.8 65.8 63.3 62.6 61.9 61.7 62.1 62.9 63.2 63.0 62.9 64.9 64.4 62.1 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 1.79 0.12 -14.33 -4.37 -4.64 -1.23 2.57 5.55 1.69 -0.75 -0.70 0.59 -0.82 -3.49 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.29 1.66 -2.72 -4.41 -5.96 -6.28 -1.96 0.49 2.12 2.24 1.42 0.59 -0.82 -3.49 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)..... 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.9 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 17: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL........................... 15647 17401 17572 18436 16317 17553 17488 18007 15728 17301 16875 64416 69056 69364 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 15.32 4.84 6.55 3.81 4.28 0.87 -0.48 -2.33 -3.61 -1.43 -3.50 -0.60 7.20 0.45 AUTO DEALERS.................. 1851 2038 2097 1763 1986 2054 2052 1710 1855 1964 1969 6917 7748 7802 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 22.02 5.86 13.13 8.73 7.31 0.79 -2.18 -2.98 -6.57 -4.36 -4.01 5.94 12.03 0.69 PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 923 1081 1011 1024 884 1031 1012 977 849 962 898 4148 4039 3904 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.02 -0.83 -7.05 -3.93 -4.20 -4.64 0.15 -4.65 -3.88 -6.66 -11.25 -3.24 -2.64 -3.34 MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 2720 3227 3161 3142 2959 3128 3054 2931 2614 3026 2768 10984 12251 12072 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 25.93 8.89 9.29 5.89 8.80 -3.09 -3.39 -6.72 -11.68 -3.25 -9.36 -6.00 11.53 -1.46 EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1317 1437 1445 1396 1370 1492 1492 1416 1381 1499 1523 5317 5595 5769 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 12.16 3.83 3.04 2.94 3.98 3.80 3.25 1.42 0.84 0.47 2.09 3.94 5.24 3.11 FOOD STORES................... 1770 1838 1886 2044 1766 1892 1880 2024 1746 1837 1836 7366 7538 7562 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 6.67 1.24 2.06 0.06 -0.23 2.90 -0.29 -0.97 -1.10 -2.89 -2.35 0.33 2.34 0.32 LIQUOR STORES................. 78 81 80 111 81 86 84 107 83 86 82 329 350 357 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.55 3.03 5.79 8.22 3.88 6.11 4.01 -3.79 2.82 0.78 -1.76 0.20 6.49 1.99 HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 335 435 474 428 350 450 466 432 337 437 449 1622 1672 1698 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 9.16 1.07 3.04 0.82 4.31 3.27 -1.70 1.10 -3.75 -2.77 -3.68 1.50 3.10 1.52 OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 4352 4814 4805 5749 4520 4909 4884 5646 4432 4801 4677 18626 19720 19958 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 14.02 3.06 4.85 3.49 3.84 1.97 1.65 -1.80 -1.94 -2.19 -4.23 3.33 5.87 1.21 MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1324 1448 1407 1704 1322 1428 1439 1697 1363 1414 1346 5299 5884 5886 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 34.08 8.22 4.33 4.96 -0.20 -1.34 2.24 -0.45 3.13 -1.00 -6.47 -1.82 11.05 0.03 TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 977 1002 1206 1073 1080 1085 1126 1066 1067 1274 1326 3809 4257 4356 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 0.77 11.14 28.17 7.49 10.58 8.31 -6.63 -0.71 -1.19 17.45 17.84 -15.29 11.75 2.33 PER CAPITA ($).................. 2787 3090 3111 3254 2871 3079 3063 3143 2737 3002 2923 11562 12242 12156 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 13.87 3.53 5.24 2.53 3.00 -0.36 -1.55 -3.39 -4.65 -2.51 -4.55 -1.92 5.88 -0.70 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 18: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES MILLIONS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1996 DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL........................... 17144 17137 17293 17494 17796 17305 17271 17069 17114 17077 16681 64299 69068 69441 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 7.45 -0.17 3.70 4.72 7.08 -10.58 -0.79 -4.59 1.07 -0.88 -8.95 -0.72 7.42 0.54 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 14.80 4.92 6.80 3.89 3.80 0.98 -0.13 -2.43 -3.83 -1.32 -3.42 -0.72 7.42 0.54 AUTO DEALERS.................. 1886 1939 1968 1960 2017 1953 1926 1906 1881 1868 1851 6920 7753 7803 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 21.90 11.79 6.02 -1.59 12.21 -12.05 -5.50 -4.04 -5.25 -2.74 -3.55 5.83 12.04 0.65 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 21.37 5.90 13.10 9.20 6.96 0.73 -2.12 -2.74 -6.76 -4.39 -3.90 5.83 12.04 0.65 PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 1049 1027 977 996 998 978 983 951 955 912 874 4151 4048 3909 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.06 -8.22 -17.90 7.78 0.78 -7.65 2.00 -12.44 1.83 -16.66 -15.66 -3.20 -2.48 -3.44 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.39 -0.97 -6.61 -3.66 -4.89 -4.74 0.57 -4.51 -4.27 -6.69 -11.02 -3.20 -2.48 -3.44 MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 3034 3031 3063 3130 3272 2946 2976 2915 2872 2857 2706 10954 12259 12109 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 9.99 -0.31 4.28 8.99 19.37 -34.30 4.26 -7.94 -5.79 -2.11 -19.53 -6.12 11.91 -1.22 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 24.64 9.24 10.08 5.66 7.84 -2.83 -2.84 -6.85 -12.21 -3.01 -9.09 -6.12 11.91 -1.22 EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1396 1388 1394 1421 1445 1444 1441 1441 1454 1452 1472 5316 5599 5771 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 4.93 -2.29 1.63 7.99 6.94 -0.30 -0.85 0.13 3.64 -0.68 5.71 3.83 5.32 3.06 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 11.43 4.00 3.35 2.99 3.48 4.01 3.37 1.43 0.64 0.54 2.17 3.83 5.32 3.06 FOOD STORES................... 1894 1850 1893 1897 1891 1907 1889 1876 1871 1853 1844 7350 7535 7563 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -1.76 -8.97 9.65 0.79 -1.23 3.32 -3.76 -2.62 -1.18 -3.66 -2.00 0.27 2.51 0.37 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 6.90 1.50 2.19 -0.29 -0.16 3.06 -0.25 -1.10 -1.09 -2.81 -2.37 0.27 2.51 0.37 LIQUOR STORES................. 85 85 88 91 89 90 91 88 91 91 90 328 349 358 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 5.46 -0.15 10.72 17.07 -9.66 7.72 3.35 -15.10 18.42 -0.59 -7.02 0.03 6.41 2.47 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.84 2.76 6.06 8.09 3.99 5.98 4.17 -3.87 2.86 0.81 -1.82 0.03 6.41 2.47 HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 423 407 420 424 438 421 416 426 420 411 401 1620 1674 1702 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -0.49 -15.00 14.15 3.47 14.47 -14.64 -5.34 10.67 -5.49 -8.78 -9.05 1.48 3.34 1.66 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.20 1.36 4.14 -0.02 3.54 3.65 -1.09 0.59 -4.12 -2.51 -3.49 1.48 3.34 1.66 OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 4886 4913 4915 5001 5055 5007 5008 4912 4949 4897 4803 18579 19715 19982 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 5.22 2.21 0.20 7.16 4.42 -3.78 0.12 -7.50 3.10 -4.20 -7.42 3.07 6.12 1.35 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 13.44 3.00 5.09 3.66 3.46 1.91 1.89 -1.79 -2.10 -2.20 -4.10 3.07 6.12 1.35 MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1487 1490 1435 1479 1473 1468 1478 1472 1513 1451 1389 5268 5891 5890 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 24.69 0.83 -13.93 12.63 -1.45 -1.47 2.71 -1.58 11.80 -15.40 -16.17 -2.19 11.81 -0.01 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 33.18 8.12 5.02 5.07 -0.93 -1.50 2.95 -0.46 2.72 -1.12 -6.01 -2.19 11.81 -0.01 TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1004 1007 1140 1096 1118 1091 1064 1082 1107 1285 1251 3813 4246 4355 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -8.66 1.18 64.24 -14.45 8.12 -9.01 -9.80 7.13 9.71 81.05 -9.94 -14.95 11.36 2.57 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 1.08 11.66 27.80 6.75 11.35 8.43 -6.66 -1.26 -0.90 17.70 17.66 -14.95 11.36 2.57 PER CAPITA ($).................. 3054 3043 3061 3087 3131 3036 3025 2980 2979 2963 2889 11543 12246 12171 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.12 -1.41 2.43 3.45 5.78 -11.67 -1.44 -5.80 -0.16 -2.09 -9.54 -2.04 6.09 -0.61 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 13.35 3.61 5.48 2.61 2.53 -0.25 -1.20 -3.49 -4.87 -2.39 -4.47 -2.04 6.09 -0.61 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 19: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL........................... 16254 18167 18447 19472 17402 18818 18860 19514 17180 18960 18476 66389 72341 74595 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 16.79 6.45 8.41 5.89 7.06 3.58 2.24 0.22 -1.28 0.76 -2.04 0.47 8.96 3.12 AUTO DEALERS.................. 1922 2127 2202 1862 2118 2202 2213 1854 2027 2153 2156 7127 8114 8386 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 23.57 7.49 15.11 10.91 10.18 3.50 0.49 -0.46 -4.31 -2.23 -2.55 7.07 13.85 3.36 PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 958 1129 1061 1082 943 1105 1091 1058 928 1055 983 4274 4230 4198 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 3.31 0.69 -5.43 -2.00 -1.65 -2.08 2.88 -2.16 -1.56 -4.59 -9.91 -2.22 -1.04 -0.76 MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 2826 3369 3319 3319 3156 3353 3294 3177 2855 3316 3031 11321 12833 12980 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 27.52 10.56 11.20 8.01 11.70 -0.49 -0.76 -4.29 -9.55 -1.11 -7.99 -4.99 13.36 1.14 EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1368 1500 1517 1475 1461 1599 1609 1535 1508 1642 1668 5479 5860 6203 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 13.58 5.43 4.84 5.01 6.76 6.59 6.07 4.06 3.27 2.70 3.64 5.06 6.96 5.86 FOOD STORES................... 1839 1919 1980 2159 1883 2028 2028 2194 1908 2013 2010 7591 7897 8133 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.02 2.79 3.85 2.07 2.44 5.67 2.43 1.61 1.29 -0.73 -0.86 1.41 4.03 3.00 LIQUOR STORES................. 81 84 84 118 86 92 90 116 91 95 90 339 367 384 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 9.92 4.61 7.64 10.39 6.65 8.96 6.85 -1.28 5.30 3.02 -0.26 1.28 8.28 4.69 HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 348 455 497 452 373 482 502 468 368 479 491 1672 1752 1826 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 10.54 2.62 4.84 2.84 7.09 6.05 0.98 3.73 -1.43 -0.61 -2.22 2.59 4.80 4.22 OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 4521 5026 5044 6072 4820 5263 5267 6119 4841 5262 5121 19199 20663 21468 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 15.46 4.64 6.68 5.57 6.61 4.71 4.42 0.76 0.42 -0.01 -2.78 4.44 7.63 3.90 MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1376 1511 1478 1800 1410 1531 1552 1839 1489 1550 1474 5462 6165 6332 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 35.78 9.88 6.16 7.06 2.46 1.31 5.03 2.15 5.62 1.20 -5.05 -0.76 12.87 2.70 TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1014 1046 1266 1134 1152 1163 1214 1155 1166 1396 1452 3925 4460 4684 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.05 12.85 30.41 9.65 13.53 11.22 -4.09 1.88 1.19 20.05 19.63 -14.37 13.61 5.03 PER CAPITA ($).................. 2895 3226 3266 3437 3062 3301 3303 3407 2990 3290 3200 11916 12824 13072 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 15.31 5.12 7.08 4.59 5.75 2.32 1.14 -0.87 -2.35 -0.34 -3.10 -0.87 7.62 1.94 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 20: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES MILLIONS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CURRENT DOLLARS HISTORICAL - DATA ANNUAL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- 199901 199902 199903 199904 200001 200002 200003 200004 200101 200102 200103 1998 1999 2000 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ TOTAL........................... 17810 17892 18155 18476 18980 18553 18626 18498 18694 18714 18263 66257 72333 74657 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 8.87 1.86 6.01 7.27 11.36 -8.69 1.58 -2.73 4.31 0.44 -9.30 0.35 9.17 3.21 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 16.26 6.53 8.67 5.97 6.57 3.69 2.60 0.12 -1.51 0.87 -1.95 0.35 9.17 3.21 AUTO DEALERS.................. 1959 2025 2066 2070 2151 2094 2077 2066 2054 2047 2027 7130 8120 8389 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 23.52 14.07 8.38 0.81 16.69 -10.20 -3.24 -2.17 -2.21 -1.44 -3.92 6.97 13.87 3.31 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 22.91 7.53 15.08 11.39 9.82 3.44 0.55 -0.20 -4.51 -2.26 -2.44 6.97 13.87 3.31 PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS.. 1090 1072 1026 1052 1064 1048 1060 1030 1043 1000 957 4277 4239 4203 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 7.47 -6.36 -16.07 10.40 4.80 -5.70 4.45 -10.73 5.10 -15.55 -15.98 -2.18 -0.89 -0.85 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.67 0.55 -4.98 -1.73 -2.35 -2.18 3.32 -2.03 -1.96 -4.62 -9.67 -2.18 -0.89 -0.85 MISC DURABLE GOODS............ 3152 3165 3216 3306 3489 3158 3210 3159 3137 3131 2963 11289 12838 13017 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 11.45 1.72 6.61 11.64 24.14 -32.92 6.75 -6.15 -2.77 -0.80 -19.84 -5.11 13.73 1.39 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 26.22 10.92 12.01 7.78 10.72 -0.22 -0.19 -4.43 -10.09 -0.85 -7.71 -5.11 13.73 1.39 EATING AND DRINKING PLACES.... 1450 1449 1463 1501 1541 1548 1554 1562 1588 1591 1612 5478 5864 6204 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.32 -0.30 3.89 10.62 11.21 1.80 1.52 2.08 6.96 0.65 5.31 4.95 7.04 5.81 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 12.84 5.60 5.15 5.06 6.25 6.80 6.19 4.08 3.07 2.77 3.72 4.95 7.04 5.81 FOOD STORES................... 1968 1932 1988 2004 2017 2044 2037 2033 2043 2031 2019 7574 7891 8131 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -0.46 -7.12 12.09 3.25 2.71 5.50 -1.45 -0.72 2.00 -2.37 -2.38 1.35 4.19 3.05 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 8.25 3.06 3.98 1.70 2.51 5.82 2.47 1.47 1.29 -0.65 -0.88 1.35 4.19 3.05 LIQUOR STORES................. 89 89 92 96 95 97 98 95 100 100 98 338 366 385 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.85 1.89 13.18 19.92 -6.05 9.99 5.82 -13.44 22.21 0.74 -7.38 1.11 8.17 5.19 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 10.22 4.34 7.92 10.25 6.76 8.82 7.01 -1.37 5.34 3.05 -0.33 1.11 8.17 5.19 HOTELS AND MOTELS............. 440 424 441 448 468 452 448 462 459 450 439 1669 1753 1830 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 0.83 -13.26 16.70 5.98 19.03 -12.84 -3.07 12.83 -2.46 -7.57 -9.40 2.57 5.03 4.36 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 9.57 2.92 5.96 1.98 6.30 6.43 1.61 3.21 -1.80 -0.35 -2.02 2.57 5.03 4.36 OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE...... 5076 5129 5160 5282 5392 5368 5401 5323 5406 5366 5259 19144 20647 21484 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 6.61 4.29 2.43 9.77 8.59 -1.76 2.52 -5.70 6.41 -2.92 -7.78 4.18 7.85 4.05 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 14.88 4.58 6.92 5.74 6.23 4.65 4.67 0.77 0.27 -0.03 -2.64 4.18 7.85 4.05 MISC NONDURABLE GOODS......... 1545 1556 1507 1562 1571 1574 1593 1595 1653 1591 1520 5429 6169 6333 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 26.34 2.89 -12.01 15.38 2.48 0.60 5.17 0.34 15.39 -14.27 -16.49 -1.13 13.61 2.66 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 34.87 9.78 6.85 7.18 1.72 1.15 5.76 2.13 5.20 1.08 -4.58 -1.13 13.61 2.66 TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION.. 1043 1051 1196 1157 1192 1170 1147 1173 1210 1408 1370 3928 4447 4682 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... -7.45 3.24 67.90 -12.37 12.43 -7.09 -7.64 9.22 13.23 83.47 -10.29 -14.04 13.21 5.27 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 2.36 13.37 30.04 8.89 14.32 11.34 -4.11 1.31 1.50 20.32 19.44 -14.04 13.21 5.27 PER CAPITA ($).................. 3172 3177 3214 3261 3340 3254 3262 3229 3253 3247 3164 11894 12825 13085 % CHG PREV QTR SAAR......... 7.53 0.60 4.71 5.96 10.00 -9.81 0.92 -3.96 3.05 -0.79 -9.89 -0.99 7.82 2.03 % CHG SAME QTR LAST YR...... 14.79 5.20 7.33 4.67 5.26 2.43 1.49 -0.97 -2.58 -0.23 -3.01 -0.99 7.82 2.03 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- US GDP (BIL96$)..................... 6677.0 6880.5 7063.0 7348.2 7544.1 7813.5 8159.8 8509.2 8857.0 9224.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -0.46 3.05 2.65 4.04 2.67 3.57 4.43 4.28 4.09 4.15 TN GSP (MIL96$)..................... 114320.0 121959.0 127108.0 134440.0 138632.0 142051.0 149239.0 156398.0 161731.0 169523.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 3.46 6.68 4.22 5.77 3.12 2.47 5.06 4.80 3.41 4.82 US GDP (BIL$)....................... 5986.2 6319.0 6642.3 7054.3 7400.5 7813.2 8318.4 8781.5 9268.6 9872.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 3.15 5.56 5.12 6.20 4.91 5.58 6.47 5.57 5.55 6.52 TN GSP (MIL$)....................... 102049.0 111844.0 119758.0 129671.0 136821.0 142051.0 151738.0 161835.0 170085.0 180438.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 7.39 9.60 7.08 8.28 5.51 3.82 6.82 6.65 5.10 6.09 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR,GDP............... 89.7 91.8 94.0 96.0 98.1 100.0 101.9 103.2 104.6 107.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 3.63 2.44 2.40 2.08 2.18 1.93 1.95 1.23 1.40 2.28 IMPLICIT DEFLATOR,GSP............... 89.3 91.7 94.2 96.5 98.7 100.0 101.7 103.5 105.2 106.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 3.80 2.73 2.74 2.37 2.32 1.32 1.67 1.77 1.63 1.21 US PERS CONS DEFL (1996=100)........ 88.9 91.6 93.8 95.7 97.9 100.0 101.9 103.0 104.7 107.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 3.83 3.06 2.38 2.02 2.29 2.15 1.94 1.07 1.64 2.67 TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$)........... 86582 94465 100394 106855 114260 119287 125456 134282 139434 147753 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 5.25 9.10 6.28 6.44 6.93 4.40 5.17 7.03 3.84 5.97 US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$)........... 5085.4 5390.4 5610.0 5888.0 6200.9 6547.4 6937.0 7426.0 7777.3 8319.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 3.71 6.00 4.07 4.96 5.31 5.59 5.95 7.05 4.73 6.97 TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL96$)......... 97385 103100 107024 111652 116712 119288 123065 130330 133147 137419 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 1.37 5.87 3.81 4.32 4.53 2.21 3.17 5.90 2.16 3.21 US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL96$)......... 5719.8 5883.1 5980.5 6152.4 6334.0 6547.4 6804.8 7207.5 7426.6 7737.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -0.11 2.85 1.65 2.88 2.95 3.37 3.93 5.92 3.04 4.18 TN NONAGRIC JOBS (THOUS)............ 2183.6 2245.0 2328.5 2423.0 2499.0 2533.4 2584.0 2638.4 2685.4 2737.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -0.44 2.81 3.72 4.06 3.14 1.38 2.00 2.11 1.78 1.94 US NONAGRIC JOBS (MIL).............. 108.3 108.6 110.7 114.1 117.2 119.6 122.7 125.8 128.9 131.8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -1.05 0.31 1.94 3.11 2.67 2.05 2.58 2.58 2.43 2.22 TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)............ 6.7 6.4 5.7 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)............ 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.0 BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)........ 8.5 6.3 6.0 7.1 8.8 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.0 9.2 TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)................. 502.7 514.5 528.4 538.9 538.9 519.3 517.6 514.7 511.1 508.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -3.39 2.35 2.71 1.98 0.00 -3.64 -0.33 -0.55 -0.71 -0.53 (CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE) TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 1: SELECTED U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS (CONT.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)............. 42650 45473 49112 53778 57943 60689 66079 66389 72341 74595 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 1.57 6.62 8.00 9.50 7.75 4.74 8.88 0.47 8.96 3.12 TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL96$)........... 47971 49630 52355 56193 59187 60689 64819 64435 69079 69377 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -2.17 3.46 5.49 7.33 5.33 2.54 6.80 -0.59 7.21 0.43 TN MFG OUTPUT/EMPLOYEE (THOUS96$)... 52.5 55.3 56.9 59.1 60.5 59.4 63.5 65.7 68.7 73.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 8.13 5.30 2.88 3.80 2.44 -1.93 6.93 3.51 4.56 6.58 TN AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG ($).... 22215 23424 23892 24635 25522 26364 27646 28862 29932 30883 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 4.43 5.44 2.00 3.11 3.60 3.30 4.86 4.40 3.71 3.18 TN AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE,NONAG (96$).. 24986 25565 25470 25741 26070 26364 27119 28013 28583 28723 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 0.58 2.32 -0.37 1.06 1.28 1.13 2.86 3.30 2.03 0.49 TN TOTAL POPULATION (THOUS)......... 4963 5046 5134 5228 5323 5414 5497 5570 5640 5706 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 1.46 1.67 1.75 1.83 1.82 1.70 1.53 1.33 1.26 1.16 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 2: SELECTED PER CAPITA U.S. AND TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TN GSP (96 $)....................... 23034 24171 24758 25715 26042 26239 27150 28078 28675 29712 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 1.97 4.93 2.43 3.86 1.27 0.76 3.47 3.42 2.13 3.62 TN GSP ($).......................... 20562 22166 23327 24803 25702 26239 27605 29054 30157 31625 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 5.85 7.80 5.24 6.33 3.62 2.09 5.21 5.25 3.79 4.87 US GDP (96 $)....................... 26446 26945 27367 28196 28676 29430 30463 31492 32501 33567 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -1.52 1.88 1.57 3.03 1.70 2.63 3.51 3.38 3.20 3.28 US GDP ($).......................... 23710 24745 25737 27069 28131 29429 31054 32500 34011 35927 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 2.05 4.37 4.01 5.18 3.92 4.61 5.52 4.65 4.65 5.63 TN PERSONAL INCOME (96 $)........... 19622 20433 20846 21357 21924 22034 22388 23398 23607 24085 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -0.09 4.13 2.02 2.45 2.66 0.50 1.61 4.51 0.89 2.02 TN PERSONAL INCOME ($).............. 17445 18722 19555 20439 21464 22034 22823 24108 24722 25897 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 3.73 7.32 4.45 4.52 5.01 2.66 3.58 5.63 2.55 4.75 US PERSONAL INCOME (96 $)........... 22655 23039 23172 23608 24077 24661 25404 26674 27252 28155 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -1.18 1.69 0.58 1.88 1.98 2.43 3.01 5.00 2.17 3.31 US PERSONAL INCOME ($).............. 20142 21109 21737 22594 23571 24661 25897 27483 28539 30273 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 2.61 4.80 2.97 3.94 4.32 4.63 5.01 6.12 3.84 6.08 TN TAXABLE SALES (96 $)............. 9666 9836 10198 10748 11118 11210 11792 11568 12248 12160 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. -3.58 1.76 3.68 5.40 3.44 0.83 5.19 -1.90 5.88 -0.72 TN TAXABLE SALES ($)................ 8594 9012 9566 10287 10885 11210 12021 11919 12826 13074 PERCENTAGE CHANGE................. 0.11 4.87 6.15 7.53 5.82 2.99 7.23 -0.85 7.61 1.93 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 3: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME............... 97385 103100 107024 111652 116712 119288 123065 130330 133147 137419 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 1.37 5.87 3.81 4.32 4.53 2.21 3.17 5.90 2.16 3.21 WAGES AND SALARIES................ 55378 58188 60087 63172 65939 67568 70749 74628 77517 79405 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 0.10 5.07 3.26 5.13 4.38 2.47 4.71 5.48 3.87 2.44 OTHER LABOR INCOME................ 7974 8633 9326 9978 9885 8931 8279 8354 8593 8634 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 3.07 8.27 8.03 6.99 -0.93 -9.65 -7.30 0.91 2.86 0.48 PROPRIETORS INCOME................ 7899 9102 9838 10011 10695 11391 11815 12649 13284 13832 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 1.42 15.23 8.09 1.76 6.83 6.51 3.72 7.06 5.01 4.13 RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS........... 16457 16099 16102 16884 17688 18395 19079 21199 20287 21086 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.89 -2.18 0.02 4.85 4.76 4.00 3.72 11.11 -4.30 3.94 TRANSFER PAYMENTS................. 14626 16039 16976 17314 18527 19031 19512 20239 20587 21635 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 9.81 9.66 5.84 1.99 7.01 2.72 2.53 3.73 1.72 5.09 LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS........ 4299 4479 4706 5042 5292 5366 5585 5845 6072 6121 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 3.15 4.19 5.08 7.15 4.95 1.39 4.09 4.66 3.88 0.81 RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT.............. -651 -482 -600 -664 -731 -662 -784 -894 -1048 -1052 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -7.44 -26.01 24.56 10.68 9.98 -9.36 18.35 14.08 17.21 0.39 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)...... 19622 20433 20846 21357 21924 22034 22388 23398 23607 24085 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -0.09 4.13 2.02 2.45 2.66 0.50 1.61 4.51 0.89 2.02 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 4: TENNESSEE PERSONAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME ............. 86582 94465 100394 106855 114260 119287 125456 134282 139434 147753 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 5.25 9.10 6.28 6.44 6.93 4.40 5.17 7.03 3.84 5.97 WAGES AND SALARIES............... 49236 53315 56365 60458 64554 67568 72124 76890 81177 85377 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 3.93 8.28 5.72 7.26 6.77 4.67 6.74 6.61 5.57 5.17 OTHER LABOR INCOME............... 7089 7910 8749 9550 9678 8931 8440 8608 8999 9284 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 7.02 11.58 10.60 9.16 1.34 -7.71 -5.50 1.98 4.54 3.16 PROPRIETORS INCOME............... 7023 8339 9229 9581 10470 11391 12045 13033 13911 14872 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 5.30 18.75 10.67 3.82 9.28 8.79 5.74 8.21 6.73 6.91 RENT INTEREST DIVIDENDS.......... 14632 14750 15105 16158 17316 18395 19449 21842 21245 22672 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 1.86 0.81 2.40 6.97 7.17 6.23 5.73 12.30 -2.73 6.72 TRANSFER PAYMENTS................ 13004 14696 15925 16570 18138 19031 19891 20853 21559 23262 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 14.02 13.01 8.36 4.05 9.46 4.92 4.52 4.83 3.39 7.90 LESS:PERS CONT FOR SOC INS....... 3822 4104 4415 4826 5181 5366 5694 6022 6359 6582 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 7.10 7.37 7.58 9.32 7.36 3.56 6.11 5.77 5.59 3.50 RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT............. -579 -442 -563 -636 -715 -662 -799 -921 -1098 -1131 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. -3.90 -23.75 27.52 12.92 12.50 -7.41 20.65 15.30 19.13 3.08 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)..... 17445 18722 19555 20439 21464 22034 22823 24108 24722 25897 PERCENTAGE CHANGE.............. 3.73 7.32 4.45 4.52 5.01 2.66 3.58 5.63 2.55 4.75 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 5: TENNESSEE WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR THOUSANDS OF JOBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL.............. 2183.6 2245.0 2328.5 2423.0 2499.0 2533.4 2584.0 2638.4 2685.4 2737.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -0.44 2.81 3.72 4.06 3.14 1.38 2.00 2.11 1.78 1.94 MINING........................... 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -10.30 -10.12 -5.55 -1.78 -0.36 0.73 -1.44 -4.76 -1.15 -2.92 CONSTRUCTION..................... 86.5 88.3 94.3 101.0 108.8 113.1 118.1 120.9 123.5 127.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -6.33 2.13 6.74 7.15 7.74 3.93 4.38 2.42 2.14 2.90 MANUFACTURING.................... 502.7 514.5 528.4 538.9 538.9 519.3 517.6 514.7 511.1 508.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -3.39 2.35 2.71 1.98 0.00 -3.64 -0.33 -0.55 -0.71 -0.53 DURABLE GOODS.................. 248.6 257.3 269.6 281.7 288.0 284.8 288.3 292.7 300.2 301.8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -3.80 3.51 4.78 4.48 2.23 -1.11 1.24 1.53 2.54 0.55 NONDURABLE GOODS............... 254.1 257.2 258.8 257.2 250.9 234.5 229.3 222.0 210.9 206.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -2.98 1.21 0.64 -0.61 -2.45 -6.55 -2.23 -3.18 -4.98 -2.06 TRADE............................ 511.6 517.7 535.9 562.1 585.5 594.4 610.2 620.5 630.8 644.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -1.09 1.19 3.53 4.89 4.15 1.53 2.66 1.69 1.67 2.23 SERVICES......................... 505.2 541.1 572.4 603.8 638.0 658.7 682.4 703.4 721.9 744.7 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ 3.88 7.10 5.78 5.48 5.66 3.25 3.59 3.08 2.63 3.16 FIN,INS,REAL EST................. 101.6 101.0 104.1 108.3 111.6 116.5 120.1 126.7 131.2 131.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -1.44 -0.56 3.08 4.04 2.97 4.42 3.14 5.50 3.49 -0.03 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL.............. 117.4 120.6 126.8 133.6 138.6 145.2 150.8 162.3 172.4 177.8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ 0.81 2.77 5.10 5.36 3.74 4.80 3.86 7.60 6.26 3.11 GOVERNMENT....................... 353.2 356.9 362.0 370.7 373.1 381.6 380.3 385.5 390.2 399.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ 0.49 1.05 1.43 2.42 0.66 2.28 -0.35 1.38 1.20 2.34 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN............... 61.7 58.4 55.7 55.3 54.4 54.1 51.8 50.8 51.2 54.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -3.03 -5.38 -4.58 -0.76 -1.57 -0.47 -4.31 -1.87 0.77 7.26 STATE AND LOCAL................ 291.5 298.5 306.3 315.5 318.8 327.5 328.5 334.7 338.9 344.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ 1.27 2.41 2.60 3.00 1.05 2.75 0.30 1.89 1.26 1.60 FARM............................... 13.2 14.6 12.9 10.4 12.6 11.3 14.1 11.8 12.3 11.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............ -15.86 10.83 -11.96 -19.24 20.73 -10.45 25.29 -16.62 4.40 -3.38 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 6: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT THOUSANDS OF JOBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL DURABLE GOODS................. 248.6 257.3 269.6 281.7 288.0 284.8 288.3 292.7 300.2 301.8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.80 3.51 4.78 4.48 2.23 -1.11 1.24 1.53 2.54 0.55 LUMBER AND WOOD................... 18.3 18.5 19.6 20.5 21.7 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -9.40 0.91 6.13 4.59 5.77 1.19 2.32 3.19 2.23 1.23 FURNITURE AND FIXTURES............ 26.1 27.4 28.9 29.8 29.5 28.5 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.57 4.88 5.56 2.97 -1.12 -3.37 -3.92 -1.10 1.42 -0.85 STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.............. 13.5 14.1 15.2 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.7 17.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -6.05 4.76 7.62 6.37 0.41 1.59 -0.20 -1.37 2.77 1.85 PRIMARY METALS.................... 15.2 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.2 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.0 17.8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -2.68 0.33 2.30 3.97 0.36 1.18 4.01 3.90 1.50 -1.43 FABRICATED METALS................. 41.7 42.0 44.2 45.6 45.6 43.7 43.8 45.4 47.1 47.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.44 0.86 5.25 3.15 0.04 -4.38 0.25 3.73 3.75 0.57 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY........... 35.4 37.3 38.8 41.1 43.4 43.0 45.4 47.2 49.5 51.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -7.26 5.40 4.18 5.99 5.59 -0.90 5.36 3.99 4.96 4.21 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.............. 35.5 35.8 37.4 39.3 40.3 40.3 40.2 40.4 41.4 40.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -4.91 0.70 4.64 5.14 2.48 -0.06 -0.37 0.73 2.39 -2.56 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.......... 41.3 45.3 48.0 51.0 52.5 52.2 53.4 53.5 54.8 55.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 4.87 9.67 6.09 6.21 2.96 -0.68 2.40 0.09 2.43 0.88 INSTRUMENTS....................... 10.8 10.3 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.2 10.8 10.8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.97 -4.80 -3.25 1.76 4.46 -0.08 4.19 1.82 -3.65 -0.08 MISCELLANEOUS..................... 10.9 11.5 11.9 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.3 10.9 10.8 10.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -10.57 5.57 3.25 -0.56 0.56 -1.12 -3.68 -3.67 -0.84 -2.00 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 7: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT THOUSANDS OF JOBS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.............. 254.1 257.2 258.8 257.2 250.9 234.5 229.3 222.0 210.9 206.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -2.98 1.21 0.64 -0.61 -2.45 -6.55 -2.23 -3.18 -4.98 -2.06 FOOD.............................. 37.3 36.5 37.4 37.3 36.8 35.5 35.9 37.3 38.4 39.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.87 -1.92 2.35 -0.25 -1.32 -3.53 0.99 4.14 2.70 2.98 TOBACCO........................... 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -6.59 -5.13 -0.68 0.68 -4.05 -2.82 -2.90 4.48 -7.14 0.00 TEXTILES.......................... 20.2 20.7 21.9 22.2 20.8 19.4 18.6 17.6 16.2 15.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -2.85 2.64 5.63 1.29 -6.09 -7.08 -4.13 -5.39 -7.83 -3.35 APPAREL........................... 60.6 60.9 59.7 56.8 52.2 41.9 38.2 33.1 26.1 22.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -5.59 0.37 -1.90 -4.91 -8.06 -19.81 -8.74 -13.29 -21.26 -15.81 PAPER............................. 21.6 22.2 22.7 22.5 22.1 21.6 22.0 21.9 22.1 21.7 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 1.13 2.78 2.14 -0.88 -1.52 -2.41 2.05 -0.64 0.99 -1.88 PRINTING AND PUBLISHING........... 37.0 36.5 37.1 38.5 39.5 38.8 38.7 39.3 38.6 38.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.62 -1.26 1.51 3.82 2.75 -1.79 -0.47 1.81 -1.93 -0.50 CHEMICALS......................... 39.2 39.6 38.9 38.0 37.6 37.1 35.7 32.6 29.7 28.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.30 0.98 -1.77 -2.25 -0.92 -1.35 -3.77 -8.70 -8.97 -3.85 PETROLEUM REFINING................ 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -8.70 -15.24 4.49 9.68 8.82 10.81 1.63 0.80 0.00 18.25 RUBBER AND PLASTICS............... 27.7 30.2 30.9 32.9 33.8 33.6 34.3 34.5 34.6 35.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.54 9.00 2.21 6.67 2.61 -0.39 1.83 0.75 0.31 2.41 LEATHER........................... 8.4 8.6 8.4 7.0 5.9 4.4 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -6.86 2.79 -2.90 -15.95 -16.13 -25.46 -13.28 -12.04 -6.22 -3.18 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 8: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR 1996 DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL............... 24986 25565 25470 25741 26070 26364 27119 28013 28583 28723 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 0.58 2.32 -0.37 1.06 1.28 1.13 2.86 3.30 2.03 0.49 MINING............................ 31959 32962 34257 35436 36160 37960 42903 45356 42302 40594 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -5.58 3.14 3.93 3.44 2.04 4.98 13.02 5.72 -6.73 -4.04 CONSTRUCTION...................... 27173 27492 27408 27929 28401 28754 30134 31196 32346 32253 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 0.27 1.17 -0.30 1.90 1.69 1.24 4.80 3.52 3.69 -0.29 MANUFACTURING..................... 28660 29666 29492 29805 30024 31024 31680 32324 33264 33378 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 2.39 3.51 -0.59 1.06 0.74 3.33 2.11 2.03 2.91 0.34 DURABLE GOODS................... 29815 30722 30711 31064 30988 31608 32613 32967 33885 33776 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 2.68 3.04 -0.04 1.15 -0.25 2.00 3.18 1.09 2.78 -0.32 NONDURABLE GOODS................ 27529 28610 28223 28425 28919 30314 30506 31476 32380 32798 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 2.12 3.93 -1.35 0.72 1.74 4.82 0.64 3.18 2.87 1.29 TRADE............................. 18694 19489 19268 19503 19821 20086 20597 21560 22265 22079 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 1.31 4.25 -1.13 1.22 1.63 1.34 2.54 4.68 3.27 -0.83 SERVICES.......................... 24161 24600 24288 24262 24989 25068 25888 26858 27137 27451 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -0.74 1.82 -1.27 -0.11 3.00 0.32 3.27 3.75 1.04 1.16 FIN,INS,REAL EST.................. 29699 31611 32153 32215 32720 34368 36369 38854 38750 40951 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 3.08 6.44 1.72 0.19 1.57 5.04 5.82 6.83 -0.27 5.68 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL............... 33695 33898 33133 33698 33648 33110 34949 35337 36102 36157 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -0.05 0.60 -2.26 1.70 -0.15 -1.60 5.56 1.11 2.17 0.15 GOVERNMENT........................ 25159 24825 25423 26225 26407 26184 26433 26911 27256 27329 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -1.06 -1.33 2.41 3.16 0.69 -0.85 0.95 1.81 1.28 0.27 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN................ 38211 38844 41238 42934 41832 42451 41174 42277 42438 41825 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 0.56 1.66 6.16 4.11 -2.57 1.48 -3.01 2.68 0.38 -1.44 STATE AND LOCAL................. 22398 22084 22548 23299 23775 23495 24109 24578 24962 25016 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -1.11 -1.40 2.10 3.33 2.04 -1.18 2.61 1.94 1.56 0.22 AGRICULTURE......................... 9878 8107 9656 11494 10018 10974 8957 11930 11535 10177 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 8.61 -17.92 19.11 19.03 -12.84 9.54 -18.38 33.19 -3.31 -11.77 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 9: TENNESSEE AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE AND SALARY RATE BY SECTOR CURRENT DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL............... 22215 23424 23892 24635 25522 26364 27646 28862 29932 30883 PERCENTAGE CHANGE........... 4.43 5.44 2.00 3.11 3.60 3.30 4.86 4.40 3.71 3.18 MINING............................ 28414 30202 32135 33913 35400 37960 43736 46731 44300 43647 PERCENTAGE CHANGE........... -1.97 6.29 6.40 5.53 4.38 7.23 15.22 6.85 -5.20 -1.47 CONSTRUCTION...................... 24159 25189 25710 26729 27804 28754 30720 32142 33873 34679 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 4.11 4.26 2.07 3.96 4.02 3.41 6.84 4.63 5.39 2.38 MANUFACTURING..................... 25481 27182 27665 28524 29394 31024 32295 33304 34835 35889 ERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 6.31 6.68 1.78 3.10 3.05 5.54 4.10 3.12 4.60 3.03 DURABLE GOODS................... 26508 28149 28808 29729 30337 31608 33246 33967 35485 36316 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 6.61 6.19 2.34 3.20 2.04 4.19 5.18 2.17 4.47 2.34 NONDURABLE GOODS................ 24476 26214 26474 27204 28311 30313 31099 32430 33909 35265 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 6.02 7.10 0.99 2.76 4.07 7.07 2.59 4.28 4.56 4.00 TRADE............................. 16621 17856 18074 18665 19405 20086 20997 22214 23316 23740 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 5.19 7.43 1.22 3.27 3.96 3.51 4.54 5.79 4.96 1.82 SERVICES.......................... 21481 22540 22783 23219 24464 25068 26391 27672 28418 29515 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 3.06 4.93 1.08 1.92 5.36 2.47 5.28 4.85 2.69 3.86 FIN,INS,REAL EST.................. 26404 28963 30161 30831 32033 34368 37075 40032 40580 44031 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 7.03 9.69 4.14 2.22 3.90 7.29 7.88 7.97 1.37 8.50 TRANS,COMM,PUB UTIL............... 29957 31059 31081 32250 32941 33110 35628 36408 37807 38876 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 3.77 3.68 0.07 3.76 2.14 0.51 7.61 2.19 3.84 2.83 GOVERNMENT........................ 22368 22746 23848 25099 25852 26184 26947 27727 28543 29384 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 2.73 1.69 4.85 5.24 3.00 1.28 2.92 2.89 2.94 2.95 FEDERAL,CIVILIAN................ 33972 35590 38683 41089 40953 42451 41974 43559 44441 44970 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 4.40 4.76 8.69 6.22 -0.33 3.66 -1.12 3.78 2.03 1.19 STATE AND LOCAL................. 19913 20235 21151 22298 23275 23495 24578 25323 26140 26897 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 2.67 1.62 4.53 5.42 4.39 0.94 4.61 3.03 3.23 2.90 AGRICULTURE......................... 8778 7424 9074 10986 9801 10979 9138 12296 12074 10949 PERCENTAGE CHANGE........... 12.67 -15.42 22.22 21.07 -10.79 12.02 -16.77 34.56 -1.81 -9.32 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 10: TENNESSEE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)........ 2421 2455 2500 2665 2701 2744 2711 2760 2816 2798 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 1.41 1.42 1.83 6.56 1.36 1.60 -1.20 1.79 2.03 -0.61 EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS).......... 2258 2298 2357 2537 2561 2603 2565 2644 2702 2688 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -0.15 1.76 2.57 7.66 0.93 1.64 -1.46 3.08 2.21 -0.52 UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)........ 163 158 144 127 140 141 146 116 113 110 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 29.45 -3.20 -8.84 -11.33 9.94 0.87 3.46 -20.87 -2.04 -2.82 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)........ 62.5 62.3 62.3 65.1 64.8 64.6 62.7 62.9 63.2 62.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -0.29 -0.24 0.02 4.46 -0.51 -0.36 -2.87 0.26 0.59 -1.75 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)......... 6.7 6.4 5.7 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 11: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL............................... 47971 49630 52355 56193 59187 60689 64819 64435 69079 69377 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -2.17 3.46 5.49 7.33 5.33 2.54 6.80 -0.59 7.21 0.43 AUTO DEALERS...................... 4582 5038 5800 6359 6710 6606 6529 6917 7748 7799 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -7.44 9.96 15.12 9.65 5.51 -1.55 -1.16 5.94 12.01 0.67 PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS...... 3268 3265 3309 3671 3903 4158 4288 4149 4039 3904 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -6.12 -0.09 1.35 10.94 6.33 6.52 3.14 -3.25 -2.64 -3.34 MISC DURABLE GOODS................ 7090 7515 8089 9420 10135 10382 11688 10988 12254 12072 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -7.10 6.00 7.64 16.45 7.59 2.44 12.58 -5.99 11.53 -1.49 EATING AND DRINKING PLACES........ 3963 4114 4186 4578 4790 4944 5116 5318 5596 5769 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 0.41 3.81 1.76 9.35 4.64 3.21 3.48 3.95 5.23 3.10 FOOD STORES....................... 7023 6980 6692 7158 7232 7308 7342 7368 7541 7564 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.88 -0.61 -4.12 6.96 1.04 1.06 0.47 0.34 2.35 0.32 LIQUOR STORES..................... 309 306 285 302 307 321 328 329 351 358 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 0.28 -0.95 -6.93 5.76 1.95 4.49 2.27 0.21 6.53 1.96 HOTELS AND MOTELS................. 1211 1328 1539 1418 1438 1491 1599 1623 1673 1698 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 0.96 9.65 15.95 -7.86 1.41 3.68 7.20 1.50 3.11 1.51 OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE.......... 13257 13809 14656 15622 16592 17233 18033 18634 19732 19967 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 0.85 4.17 6.13 6.59 6.21 3.86 4.64 3.33 5.89 1.19 MISC NONDURABLE GOODS............. 4387 4515 4445 4740 4904 4922 5399 5302 5887 5889 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.60 2.92 -1.56 6.64 3.45 0.38 9.68 -1.81 11.05 0.03 TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION...... 2882 2759 3353 2925 3175 3325 4497 3810 4258 4356 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 4.46 -4.25 21.54 -12.78 8.56 4.70 35.26 -15.28 11.78 2.29 PER CAPITA TOTAL TAXABLE SALES ($).. 9666 9836 10198 10748 11118 11210 11792 11568 12248 12160 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.58 1.76 3.68 5.40 3.44 0.83 5.19 -1.90 5.88 -0.72 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 12: TENNESSEE TAXABLE SALES MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL............................... 42650 45473 49112 53778 57943 60689 66079 66389 72341 74595 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 1.57 6.62 8.00 9.50 7.75 4.74 8.88 0.47 8.96 3.12 AUTO DEALERS...................... 4073 4616 5440 6086 6569 6606 6656 7127 8114 8386 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.90 13.32 17.86 11.87 7.93 0.56 0.76 7.07 13.85 3.36 PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS...... 2905 2991 3104 3513 3821 4158 4371 4274 4230 4198 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -2.53 2.96 3.76 13.18 8.77 8.80 5.15 -2.22 -1.04 -0.76 MISC DURABLE GOODS................ 6304 6886 7588 9015 9922 10381 11915 11321 12833 12980 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.54 9.24 10.20 18.81 10.05 4.63 14.77 -4.99 13.36 1.14 EATING AND DRINKING PLACES........ 3523 3769 3927 4381 4689 4944 5215 5479 5860 6203 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 4.25 6.98 4.18 11.56 7.04 5.42 5.49 5.06 6.96 5.86 FOOD STORES....................... 6244 6395 6278 6850 7080 7308 7485 7591 7897 8133 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 1.87 2.43 -1.84 9.12 3.35 3.22 2.42 1.41 4.03 3.00 LIQUOR STORES..................... 275 281 267 289 301 321 335 339 367 384 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 4.12 2.08 -4.72 7.90 4.29 6.73 4.26 1.28 8.28 4.69 HOTELS AND MOTELS................. 1076 1216 1444 1357 1408 1491 1630 1672 1752 1826 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 4.82 13.00 18.71 -6.00 3.73 5.91 9.29 2.59 4.80 4.22 OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE.......... 11787 12653 13748 14951 16244 17233 18383 19199 20663 21468 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 4.71 7.35 8.66 8.75 8.65 6.09 6.68 4.44 7.63 3.90 MISC NONDURABLE GOODS............. 3901 4137 4170 4537 4801 4922 5504 5462 6165 6332 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 2.17 6.06 0.79 8.80 5.82 2.53 11.82 -0.76 12.87 2.70 TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION...... 2562 2528 3146 2799 3109 3325 4584 3925 4460 4684 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 8.46 -1.32 24.43 -11.01 11.05 6.95 37.89 -14.37 13.61 5.03 PER CAPITA TOTAL TAXABLE SALES ($).. 8594 9012 9566 10287 10885 11210 12021 11919 12826 13074 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 0.11 4.87 6.15 7.53 5.82 2.99 7.23 -0.85 7.61 1.93 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 13: TENNESSEE GROSS STATE PRODUCT BY SECTOR MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- GROSS STATE PRODUCT................. 114320.0 121959.0 127108.0 134440.0 138632.0 142051.0 149239.0 156398.0 161731.0 169523.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 3.46 6.68 4.22 5.77 3.12 2.47 5.06 4.80 3.41 4.82 MINING............................ 374.0 382.0 347.0 359.0 383.0 427.0 471.0 513.0 512.0 528.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -7.20 2.14 -9.16 3.46 6.69 11.49 10.30 8.92 -0.19 3.12 CONSTRUCTION...................... 4114.0 4492.0 4904.0 5298.0 5654.0 5921.0 6134.0 6356.0 6472.0 6636.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -5.14 9.19 9.17 8.03 6.72 4.72 3.60 3.62 1.83 2.54 MANUFACTURING..................... 26413.0 28468.0 30081.0 31842.0 32617.0 30822.0 32852.0 33818.0 35112.0 37224.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 4.47 7.78 5.67 5.85 2.43 -5.50 6.59 2.94 3.83 6.02 DURABLE GOODS................... 12379.0 14037.0 15468.0 16429.0 17647.0 17541.0 18808.0 19985.0 21837.0 23918.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 6.15 13.39 10.19 6.21 7.41 -0.60 7.22 6.26 9.27 9.53 NONDURABLE GOODS................ 14161.0 14518.0 14659.0 15457.0 14979.0 13281.0 14045.0 13871.0 13436.0 13306.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 2.94 2.52 0.97 5.44 -3.09 -11.34 5.75 -1.24 -3.14 -0.97 TRADE............................. 19222.0 20783.0 21565.0 23374.0 24244.0 26266.0 28871.0 31763.0 33563.0 34647.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 4.05 8.12 3.76 8.39 3.72 8.34 9.92 10.02 5.67 3.23 SERVICES.......................... 22391.0 24163.0 25482.0 26391.0 27924.0 28986.0 30046.0 30948.0 31288.0 32614.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 1.24 7.91 5.46 3.57 5.81 3.80 3.66 3.00 1.10 4.24 FINANCE,INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE. 15631.0 16237.0 16849.0 17514.0 18554.0 19436.0 20405.0 22067.0 22195.0 23828.7 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 3.64 3.88 3.77 3.95 5.94 4.75 4.99 8.15 0.58 7.36 TRANS.,COMM.,AND PUBLIC UTIL...... 8359.0 9216.0 9891.0 10677.0 10653.0 11427.0 11586.0 11700.0 13087.0 13591.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 8.49 10.25 7.32 7.95 -0.22 7.27 1.39 0.98 11.85 3.86 GOVERNMENT........................ 16330.0 16478.0 16300.0 17064.0 16857.0 17194.0 17110.0 17595.0 17999.0 18691.8 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 2.52 0.91 -1.08 4.69 -1.21 2.00 -0.49 2.83 2.30 3.85 FEDERAL CIVILIAN................ 5308.0 5348.0 4977.0 5054.0 4619.0 4797.0 4741.0 5011.0 5127.0 5431.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 11.72 0.75 -6.94 1.55 -8.61 3.85 -1.17 5.70 2.31 5.94 FEDERAL MILITARY................ 973.0 910.0 880.0 889.0 833.0 778.0 560.0 561.0 598.0 647.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -2.21 -6.47 -3.30 1.02 -6.30 -6.60 -28.02 0.18 6.60 8.27 STATE AND LOCAL................. 10077.0 10249.0 10459.0 11131.0 11405.0 11619.0 11807.0 12024.0 12275.0 12612.7 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -1.04 1.71 2.05 6.43 2.46 1.88 1.62 1.84 2.09 2.75 AGRICULTURE....................... 1695.0 1857.0 1753.0 1925.0 1772.0 1571.0 1815.0 1787.0 1739.0 1760.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 13.61 9.56 -5.60 9.81 -7.95 -11.34 15.53 -1.54 -2.69 1.22 FARM............................ 1262.0 1414.0 1274.0 1448.0 1249.0 1020.0 1239.0 1136.0 1062.0 1060.7 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 16.10 12.04 -9.90 13.66 -13.74 -18.33 21.47 -8.31 -6.51 -0.12 AG SERVICES,FORESTRY,FISHERIES.. 448.0 460.0 491.0 496.0 529.0 551.0 581.0 639.0 650.0 699.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 6.41 2.68 6.74 1.02 6.65 4.16 5.44 9.98 1.72 7.62 PER CAPITA GROSS STATE PRODUCT ($).. 23034.3 24170.8 24758.4 25715.3 26042.1 26239.0 27150.2 28078.1 28675.5 29712.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 1.97 4.93 2.43 3.86 1.27 0.76 3.47 3.42 2.13 3.62 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 14: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING GROSS PRODUCT MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL DURABLE GOODS................. 12379.0 14037.0 15468.0 16429.0 17647.0 17541.0 18808.0 19985.0 21837.0 23918.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 6.15 13.39 10.19 6.21 7.41 -0.60 7.22 6.26 9.27 9.53 LUMBER AND WOOD PRODUCTS.......... 800.0 785.0 751.0 922.0 1067.0 1088.0 967.0 1038.0 1076.0 1143.4 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -8.26 -1.88 -4.33 22.77 15.73 1.97 -11.12 7.34 3.66 6.26 FURNITURE AND FIXTURES............ 879.0 967.0 1023.0 1008.0 949.0 979.0 938.0 870.0 884.0 1231.7 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 5.27 10.01 5.79 -1.47 -5.85 3.16 -4.19 -7.25 1.61 39.33 STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.............. 658.0 759.0 817.0 918.0 993.0 995.0 1041.0 1052.0 1102.0 1380.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -12.96 15.35 7.64 12.36 8.17 0.20 4.62 1.06 4.75 25.25 PRIMARY METALS.................... 1262.0 1079.0 1351.0 1258.0 1259.0 1192.0 1418.0 1573.0 1949.0 2070.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 31.73 -14.50 25.21 -6.88 0.08 -5.32 18.96 10.93 23.90 6.21 FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS......... 2285.0 2439.0 2583.0 2734.0 2846.0 2785.0 2948.0 2831.0 2974.0 3124.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -0.39 6.74 5.90 5.85 4.10 -2.14 5.85 -3.97 5.05 5.05 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY........... 1379.0 1982.0 2049.0 2048.0 2092.0 2386.0 2779.0 3489.0 4143.0 4606.7 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -9.28 43.73 3.38 -0.05 2.15 14.05 16.47 25.55 18.74 11.19 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.............. 1233.0 1253.0 1276.0 1545.0 1854.0 2050.0 2527.0 2919.0 3495.0 3773.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 10.68 1.62 1.84 21.08 20.00 10.57 23.27 15.51 19.73 7.98 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.......... 2535.0 3336.0 4434.0 4895.0 5335.0 4691.0 5116.0 5337.0 5562.0 5577.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 32.10 31.60 32.91 10.40 8.99 -12.07 9.06 4.32 4.22 0.28 INSTRUMENTS....................... 818.0 776.0 625.0 483.0 525.0 553.0 274.0 327.0 313.0 381.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 8.63 -5.13 -19.46 -22.72 8.70 5.33 -50.45 19.34 -4.28 22.00 MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS....... 584.0 691.0 711.0 692.0 761.0 822.0 844.0 732.0 753.0 628.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -0.34 18.32 2.89 -2.67 9.97 8.02 2.68 -13.27 2.87 -16.53 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 15: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING GROSS PRODUCT MILLIONS OF 1996 DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.............. 14161.0 14518.0 14659.0 15457.0 14979.0 13281.0 14045.0 13871.0 13436.0 13306.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 2.94 2.52 0.97 5.44 -3.09 -11.34 5.75 -1.24 -3.14 -0.97 FOOD.............................. 3263.0 3091.0 3090.0 3282.0 3755.0 2700.0 2837.0 2924.0 3000.0 3143.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 9.72 -5.27 -0.03 6.21 14.41 -28.10 5.07 3.07 2.60 4.80 TOBACCO........................... 96.0 82.0 89.0 139.0 166.0 173.0 184.0 153.0 125.0 142.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -39.62 -14.58 8.54 56.18 19.42 4.22 6.36 -16.85 -18.30 14.34 TEXTILES.......................... 584.0 717.0 701.0 670.0 592.0 728.0 724.0 724.0 699.0 675.1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -6.86 22.77 -2.23 -4.42 -11.64 22.97 -0.55 0.00 -3.45 -3.41 APPAREL........................... 1473.0 1502.0 1451.0 1430.0 1292.0 1019.0 1097.0 953.0 750.0 574.5 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -3.28 1.97 -3.40 -1.45 -9.65 -21.13 7.65 -13.13 -21.30 -23.40 PAPER............................. 1628.0 1690.0 1871.0 1655.0 1377.0 1454.0 1467.0 1490.0 1570.0 1541.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 11.20 3.81 10.71 -11.54 -16.80 5.59 0.89 1.57 5.37 -1.82 PRINTING AND PUBLISHING........... 1849.0 1824.0 1670.0 1636.0 1620.0 1533.0 1535.0 1450.0 1418.0 1412.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -1.39 -1.35 -8.44 -2.04 -0.98 -5.37 0.13 -5.54 -2.21 -0.38 CHEMICALS......................... 3724.0 3887.0 3927.0 4566.0 4172.0 3854.0 4107.0 4106.0 3725.0 3600.0 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 1.44 4.38 1.03 16.27 -8.63 -7.62 6.56 -0.02 -9.28 -3.35 PETROLEUM REFINING................ 92.0 105.0 103.0 96.0 97.0 137.0 111.0 162.0 202.0 240.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 2.22 14.13 -1.90 -6.80 1.04 41.24 -18.98 45.95 24.69 18.90 RUBBER AND PLASTICS............... 1280.0 1418.0 1597.0 1793.0 1771.0 1584.0 1896.0 1823.0 1891.0 1887.6 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 9.97 10.78 12.62 12.27 -1.23 -10.56 19.70 -3.85 3.73 -0.18 LEATHER........................... 269.0 282.0 237.0 211.0 182.0 100.0 94.0 90.0 84.0 87.9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -11.80 4.83 -15.96 -10.97 -13.74 -45.05 -6.00 -4.26 -6.67 4.60 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 16: TENNESSEE GROSS STATE PRODUCT BY SECTOR MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- GROSS STATE PRODUCT................. 102049 111844 119758 129671 136821 142051 151738 161835 170085 180438 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 7.39 9.60 7.08 8.28 5.51 3.82 6.82 6.65 5.10 6.09 MINING............................ 389 387 330 353 390 427 477 499 510 543 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -11.39 -0.51 -14.73 6.97 10.48 9.49 11.71 4.61 2.20 6.50 CONSTRUCTION...................... 3562 3875 4372 4909 5479 5921 6390 6949 7462 8173 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. -4.02 8.79 12.83 12.28 11.61 8.07 7.92 8.75 7.38 9.53 MANUFACTURING..................... 24977 27432 29306 31510 32370 30822 32690 33990 35392 36166 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 8.13 9.83 6.83 7.52 2.73 -4.78 6.06 3.98 4.12 2.19 DURABLE GOODS................... 12096 13954 15600 16778 17677 17541 18497 19237 20736 21921 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 8.99 15.36 11.80 7.55 5.36 -0.77 5.45 4.00 7.79 5.72 NONDURABLE GOODS................ 12881 13479 13706 14732 14694 13281 14193 14753 14656 14245 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 7.33 4.64 1.68 7.49 -0.26 -9.62 6.87 3.95 -0.66 -2.80 TRADE............................. 18195 19813 21092 23401 24720 26266 28412 30469 32435 33360 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 6.46 8.89 6.46 10.95 5.64 6.25 8.17 7.24 6.45 2.85 SERVICES.......................... 18548 21130 23139 24744 27071 28986 31131 33346 35089 38049 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 7.08 13.92 9.51 6.94 9.40 7.07 7.40 7.12 5.23 8.43 FINANCE,INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE. 12945 14109 15110 16156 17857 19436 21258 23558 24019 26513 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 8.55 8.99 7.09 6.92 10.53 8.84 9.37 10.82 1.96 10.38 TRANS.,COMM.,AND PUBLIC UTIL...... 8221 9085 10025 10862 10938 11427 12103 12839 14141 14911 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 10.20 10.51 10.35 8.35 0.70 4.47 5.92 6.08 10.14 5.45 GOVERNMENT........................ 13763 14417 14827 16052 16410 17194 17619 18583 19546 21143 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 9.22 4.75 2.84 8.26 2.23 4.78 2.47 5.47 5.18 8.17 FEDERAL CIVILIAN................ 4348 4515 4404 4637 4489 4797 4864 5226 5515 5994 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 23.52 3.84 -2.46 5.29 -3.19 6.86 1.40 7.44 5.53 8.68 FEDERAL MILITARY................ 830 834 807 822 786 778 572 581 640 717 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 1.47 0.48 -3.24 1.86 -4.38 -1.02 -26.48 1.57 10.15 12.00 STATE AND LOCAL................. 8584 9068 9616 10593 11136 11619 12182 12776 13392 14432 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 3.90 5.64 6.04 10.16 5.13 4.34 4.85 4.88 4.82 7.77 AGRICULTURE....................... 1449 1595 1556 1685 1586 1571 1658 1602 1492 1580 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 5.31 10.08 -2.45 8.29 -5.88 -0.95 5.54 -3.38 -6.87 5.92 FARM............................ 1079 1190 1093 1207 1070 1020 1056 915 742 798 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 4.96 10.29 -8.15 10.43 -11.35 -4.67 3.53 -13.35 -18.91 7.50 AG SERVICES,FORESTRY,FISHERIES.. 370 406 463 478 516 551 603 687 750 783 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 6.02 9.73 14.04 3.24 7.95 6.78 9.44 13.93 9.17 4.35 PER CAPITA GROSS STATE PRODUCT ($).. 20562 22166 23327 24803 25702 26239 27605 29054 30157 31625 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............. 5.85 7.80 5.24 6.33 3.62 2.09 5.21 5.25 3.79 4.87 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 17: TENNESSEE DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING GROSS PRODUCT MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL DURABLE GOODS................. 12096 13954 15600 16778 17677 17541 18497 19237 20736 21921 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 8.99 15.36 11.80 7.55 5.36 -0.77 5.45 4.00 7.79 5.72 LUMBER AND WOOD PRODUCTS.......... 588 641 726 944 1085 1088 1008 1086 1165 1285 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -5.47 9.01 13.26 30.03 14.94 0.28 -7.35 7.74 7.27 10.28 FURNITURE AND FIXTURES............ 785 867 918 944 894 979 963 925 969 1358 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 9.33 10.45 5.88 2.83 -5.30 9.51 -1.63 -3.95 4.76 40.12 STONE,CLAY AND GLASS.............. 585 673 742 873 980 995 1057 1117 1226 1425 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -10.14 15.04 10.25 17.65 12.26 1.53 6.23 5.68 9.76 16.25 PRIMARY METALS.................... 1175 977 1199 1185 1345 1192 1416 1556 1762 1905 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 23.95 -16.85 22.72 -1.17 13.50 -11.38 18.79 9.89 13.24 8.13 FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS......... 2171 2347 2501 2633 2733 2785 2992 2992 3272 3513 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 3.83 8.11 6.56 5.28 3.80 1.90 7.43 0.00 9.36 7.37 NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY........... 1749 2440 2406 2322 2228 2386 2513 2815 3026 3541 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -9.00 39.51 -1.39 -3.49 -4.05 7.09 5.32 12.02 7.50 17.03 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY.............. 1878 1840 1817 2084 2115 2050 2301 2240 2355 2414 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 9.44 -2.02 -1.25 14.69 1.49 -3.07 12.24 -2.65 5.13 2.49 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.......... 2005 2881 4068 4692 5086 4691 5097 5357 5777 5298 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 44.97 43.69 41.20 15.34 8.40 -7.77 8.65 5.10 7.84 -8.29 INSTRUMENTS....................... 625 629 528 420 471 553 295 384 385 499 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 16.17 0.64 -16.06 -20.45 12.14 17.41 -46.65 30.17 0.26 29.59 MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS....... 535 657 695 680 740 822 856 765 799 683 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 5.11 22.80 5.78 -2.16 8.82 11.08 4.14 -10.63 4.44 -14.47 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE. TENNESSEE ECONOMETRIC MODEL December 2001 UPDATE TABLE 18: TENNESSEE NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING GROSS PRODUCT MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS.............. 12881 13479 13706 14732 14694 13281 14193 14753 14656 14245 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 7.33 4.64 1.68 7.49 -0.26 -9.62 6.87 3.95 -0.66 -2.80 FOOD.............................. 3030 2938 2901 3213 3412 2700 2959 3172 3368 3276 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 15.78 -3.04 -1.26 10.75 6.19 -20.87 9.59 7.20 6.18 -2.74 TOBACCO........................... 107 118 118 134 160 173 204 225 356 376 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -18.32 10.28 0.00 13.56 19.40 8.13 17.92 10.29 58.22 5.65 TEXTILES.......................... 574 719 695 638 566 728 747 777 773 754 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -4.97 25.26 -3.34 -8.20 -11.29 28.62 2.61 4.02 -0.51 -2.45 APPAREL........................... 1422 1484 1455 1436 1257 1019 1101 984 812 605 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 0.28 4.36 -1.95 -1.31 -12.47 -18.93 8.05 -10.63 -17.48 -25.46 PAPER............................. 1355 1397 1448 1352 1554 1454 1355 1483 1596 1601 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 7.80 3.10 3.65 -6.63 14.94 -6.44 -6.81 9.45 7.62 0.34 PRINTING AND PUBLISHING........... 1417 1491 1449 1474 1468 1533 1619 1623 1665 1747 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 6.38 5.22 -2.82 1.73 -0.41 4.43 5.61 0.25 2.59 4.92 CHEMICALS......................... 3285 3488 3648 4355 4251 3854 4120 4327 3894 3578 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 6.76 6.18 4.59 19.38 -2.39 -9.34 6.90 5.02 -10.01 -8.12 PETROLEUM REFINING................ 132 140 149 129 105 137 136 200 165 231 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 5.60 6.06 6.43 -13.42 -18.60 30.48 -0.73 47.06 -17.50 40.11 RUBBER AND PLASTICS............... 1308 1436 1615 1795 1739 1584 1856 1869 1937 1983 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... 12.47 9.79 12.47 11.15 -3.12 -8.91 17.17 0.70 3.64 2.36 LEATHER........................... 251 267 228 206 182 100 95 95 89 94 PERCENTAGE CHANGE............... -9.71 6.37 -14.61 -9.65 -11.65 -45.05 -5.00 0.00 -6.32 5.44 CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH,UT-KNOXVILLE.